tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5091942184798219564..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Trumpflation? Or A Return of Deflation? - LeftbackMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54260099218704583182017-01-16T17:26:56.354+00:002017-01-16T17:26:56.354+00:00Good piece LB. Demographic impacts will be relentl...Good piece LB. Demographic impacts will be relentless.northshorenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73777558069508348492017-01-15T20:20:13.026+00:002017-01-15T20:20:13.026+00:00Good Stuff LB
Best for 2017
Nic xGood Stuff LB<br />Best for 2017 <br />Nic xNichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15083151714732237616noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52842366480943550332017-01-14T10:40:36.986+00:002017-01-14T10:40:36.986+00:00Good post Leftback, but I do have some nits to pic...Good post Leftback, but I do have some nits to pick.<br /><br />Ryan does lead the House, but McConnell leads the Senate.<br /><br />Rates had already fallen significantly in 1982. The Fed Funds rate, which peaked at twenty percent in 1980 and 1981 was fifteen percent in early 1982, and fell to 8.5 percent by the end of the year.<br /><br />The yield on the thirty year peaked at over fifteen percent in mid to late 1981. While 1982 began with the yield still above fourteen percent, it fell almost 400 basis points between June and November of that year.<br /><br />The current market environment reminds me a lot of early 1973 (yeah, I have been around for a while) - a lot of confidence after an election rejected a progressive candidate, Dow flirting with a major milestone (crossing 1000 after the election, and rallying just about to the inauguration), and a lot of optimism (and complacency) as involvement in Vietnam was winding down. We all remember what happened after that (for those not around then, the Dow fell below 600 twenty months later, and although it popped briefly above 1000 in 1976 and 1981, it was back at 777 in August 1982, when "THE" bull market began).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1584923289177681902017-01-13T19:30:57.533+00:002017-01-13T19:30:57.533+00:00Excellent post. Thank you.Excellent post. Thank you.Error404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29698365883315296552017-01-13T18:03:42.217+00:002017-01-13T18:03:42.217+00:00@ Anon 3.31... here's another song from the sa...@ Anon 3.31... here's another song from the same musical: S&P 500 is on track today to post 65 trading days without a down move of > 1%. Current bull market (since 2009) record is 66. Can't take credit for that; saw it on Bespoke's twitter.thudnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31749583755324480802017-01-13T17:48:32.812+00:002017-01-13T17:48:32.812+00:00abee
it's just the 1,2,3 step program that wa...abee<br /><br />it's just the 1,2,3 step program that was worth mentioning, i remember the market shot up the day the war started, which was not exactly intuitive to the layman, and i guess that was Jared's point. Between 2000-2003 bear market and 2009-2017 bull market we agree trends are opposite so expect 1,2,3 programs to be opposite too <br /><br />1 - limit down at election result <br />2 - Trump trade into inauguration <br />3 - Imagination is over, reality beginsNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15541482939680327062017-01-13T16:41:50.913+00:002017-01-13T16:41:50.913+00:00LB - excellent work, thank you -- we much appreci...LB - excellent work, thank you -- we much appreciate your insights and efforts here!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33734803612195498682017-01-13T15:53:10.347+00:002017-01-13T15:53:10.347+00:00Interesting and well written piece, many thanksInteresting and well written piece, many thanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54554147532687599042017-01-13T15:48:55.766+00:002017-01-13T15:48:55.766+00:00Well done LB, I will play up against this next tim...Well done LB, I will play up against this next time I do something. This is a very good description of the zeitgeist. <br /><br />"According to this strong dollar, reflationary view, one should therefore sell vanilla Treasuries and longer duration debt, and buy high yield bonds or TIPS. In equities, one should sell defensive sectors, such as utilities, REITs, health care and staples, avoid other rate-sensitive issues such as telecoms and technology and buy the cyclical sectors, such as the financials, materials, integrated oil stocks, the drillers and industrials. This is the traditional recovery investment playbook (think about 2009, for example)."CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74537340274509434212017-01-13T15:44:08.701+00:002017-01-13T15:44:08.701+00:00@ Anon 3.31, love that stat, I am nicking it.@ Anon 3.31, love that stat, I am nicking it.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33966113608742309892017-01-13T15:39:33.307+00:002017-01-13T15:39:33.307+00:00@Anons: we're up massively since Trump, and th...@Anons: we're up massively since Trump, and this sideways range is just a continuation pattern for another HUGE move higher. The reason you people lose so much is you indulge in retail behavior of trying to pick tops and imagining that the market is "over-valued", or "too high" or other nonsense. The main equity markets can easily move another 100% higher from here and probably will.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28829030135749046672017-01-13T15:31:07.698+00:002017-01-13T15:31:07.698+00:00One month is 21 trading days. Past month the #Dow ...One month is 21 trading days. Past month the #Dow has been in a range of 1.07% (using closing prices). Since 1900, tightest range EVER.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37886884285771605142017-01-13T15:28:52.717+00:002017-01-13T15:28:52.717+00:00"Yesterday's huge BTFD showed you were wr..."Yesterday's huge BTFD showed you were wrong, when are you going to throw in the towel and admit your view is biased?" I hope it's not a 10 handle S&P rally you refer to? <br /><br />What equity market are you talking about? The ftse has rallied on fx, NQ has put in a nice little rally but all other markets are inthe same range since mid December. <br /><br />You do realise volume is atrocious? Volume to the sell or buy side is going to shunt this market hard either way. <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47852867567288835632017-01-13T15:23:09.470+00:002017-01-13T15:23:09.470+00:00Returns since election...
$BAC: +38%
$GS: +36%
$MS...Returns since election...<br />$BAC: +38%<br />$GS: +36%<br />$MS: +30%<br />$JPM: +26%<br />$WFC: +23%<br />$C: +21%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60372870420528125332017-01-13T15:21:35.980+00:002017-01-13T15:21:35.980+00:00Problem for bears remains relentless corp bond iss...Problem for bears remains relentless corp bond issuance & cash spreads tightening; CDX/derivs can only stray so far from cash. Last 2 days saw $32B of issuance; yday $10B, mostly HY; this a.m. CDX tightening a bit. MTD issuance = $110B w/ ½ month to go Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7442126279793582772017-01-13T15:11:55.497+00:002017-01-13T15:11:55.497+00:00@ Rubberpower, can u resend pls. I thought I add...@ Rubberpower, can u resend pls. I thought I added everyone who asked but some may have slipped through the cracksMacro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81820592685380044952017-01-13T15:06:45.436+00:002017-01-13T15:06:45.436+00:00Equities shooting higher and US economic data. Nic...Equities shooting higher and US economic data. Nico's losses mounting... have a good w/e. Next week will likely see new ATHs.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74447786022518524982017-01-13T14:31:32.001+00:002017-01-13T14:31:32.001+00:00Great read enjoyed the contrarian view, keep it up...Great read enjoyed the contrarian view, keep it up <br /><br />JamesJameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15185044745010626974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-696423462309227282017-01-13T14:28:41.259+00:002017-01-13T14:28:41.259+00:00
@Macro Man
I shot you an email last week regardi...<br />@Macro Man<br /><br />I shot you an email last week regarding how to follow you on bloomberg. Can you please let me how to go about that?<br /><br />ThanksRubberpowernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44828199314075521342017-01-13T13:19:00.493+00:002017-01-13T13:19:00.493+00:00Nico, I appreciate the Trump/Iraq analogy, of buy ...Nico, I appreciate the Trump/Iraq analogy, of buy the rumor sell the news, but the charts dont add up. <br /><br />1) April 2003, when the sadaam statue was over turned (quick google search but I think this is the date you/Dillan refer to) the S&P was in a 3 year BEAR market. <br /><br />2) Also I think Jared's facts are wrong bc April 9th 2003 was probably one of the best places to buy for the next 4-5 years, not sell. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65562750909558917272017-01-13T13:13:50.409+00:002017-01-13T13:13:50.409+00:00Nico (and other perma bears) where's your equi...Nico (and other perma bears) where's your equities crash? Indexes are still back where they were in Dec, and some (Nasdaq, Dax etc) have pushed up to new highs.<br /><br />Yesterday's huge BTFD showed you were wrong, when are you going to throw in the towel and admit your view is biased?<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69473945414863221202017-01-13T10:26:33.608+00:002017-01-13T10:26:33.608+00:00Nice one Leftback.Nice one Leftback.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14381013196081166483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52305140743174834442017-01-13T05:57:22.463+00:002017-01-13T05:57:22.463+00:00talking about Turkey a 10 year graph on USDTRY is ...talking about Turkey a 10 year graph on USDTRY is quite something. Is has nearly TRIPLED. This is forex punishment for when a promising EM country goes rogue<br /><br />in that aspect MXN might still have a long way to reach currency hell but the gut feeling is that the easy short trade is already past us. So one would have to go very technical on initiating a short on some decent retracement of post election losses, etcNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28846514044042272162017-01-13T05:16:03.027+00:002017-01-13T05:16:03.027+00:00Good point on Turkey. For EM tourists I think it ...Good point on Turkey. For EM tourists I think it is often overlooked. <br /><br />FWIW my take on China is that the CCP pursues stability at any cost. When backed into a corner they will revert to what they do best, which is employ a ton of people to build stuff. Whether this "stuff" is useful or not isn't remotely relevant. <br /><br />Rosscohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18218092677103028057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74827353498389087512017-01-13T01:42:19.911+00:002017-01-13T01:42:19.911+00:00johno,
Mexico is a pinata, no doubt. But I don...johno,<br /><br />Mexico is a pinata, no doubt. But I don't want to go long USD/MXN, simple reason is I have no idea how to precisely measure the toll on that currency pair as there are no winners in trade wars. I do however think that transports are a screaming short on possible trade war and cross-border freight volume reduction as a result. Can you imagine our third largest trade partner being in a full-fledged trade war with us? I mean if the wall (or even mentioning of one) was not bad enough for our relations, a NAFTA death and having to scramble to renegotiate all the trade deals will send shockwaves across the market. And we should not forget Canada! Don't get me started on the consequences of that one.IPAnoreply@blogger.com