tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4971701316763295254..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Spread 'emMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48739665188450965012023-10-26T01:46:55.444+01:002023-10-26T01:46:55.444+01:00Hello, just wanted to tell you, I liked this artic...Hello, just wanted to tell you, I liked this article온라인카지노https://www.casinositeguide.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70545446025140847762023-10-26T01:46:36.069+01:002023-10-26T01:46:36.069+01:00This is an awesome motivating article. 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Thanks for sharing.totosafeguidehttps://www.totosafeguide.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63246874235295418952022-08-09T03:35:55.018+01:002022-08-09T03:35:55.018+01:00I feel appreciative that I read this. It is useful...I feel appreciative that I read this. It is useful and extremely informative and I truly took in a great deal from it.powerballsitehttps://www.powerballsite.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46901909793018883352022-08-09T03:35:43.909+01:002022-08-09T03:35:43.909+01:00Thanks for sharing the great information. I like t...Thanks for sharing the great information. I like the way of your representation.sportstoto365https://www.sportstoto365.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7454889383017635782016-10-19T00:33:44.084+01:002016-10-19T00:33:44.084+01:00If you think about all the regulatory capital requ...If you think about all the regulatory capital required to put on a long end spread widener, suddenly the carry doesn't seem so attractive.. USD swap spreads are a prime example of regulation gone haywire. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57191284730366678812016-10-18T21:16:54.733+01:002016-10-18T21:16:54.733+01:00T/Anon 7:38 - of course she 'likes' oil an...T/Anon 7:38 - of course she 'likes' oil and gas, as in she 'used to' before all her dirty linen was publicly displayed. I will reiterate what I said a few days ago - this idea that HRC will be a chump for corporate interests and wall street is a massive blind spot. She will have one job from day 1 of assuming office, and that would be to get re-elected - this, after she just went through a bruising campaign where she was harangued for kowtowing to aforementioned interests and with 50% of the country thinking she is a criminal - the idea that she will do a public high five with the 'elites' immediately after taking office, or even the suggestion of underhand deals in this new age of hacking, goes against everything I know about opportunistic politicians (Theresa May post Brexit, anyone?)<br /><br />As for the economy, goldilocks is over - best case is continued slow growth but with higher inflation, which will further corrode the credibility of the powers to be because of effects on housing and healthcare. Impact on equities unclear to me - impact on bonds clearer. <br /><br />T - the expectations theory obviously doesn't apply to things where (for most americans) your employer deducts them from your paycheck, so no one cares - that being said, how about pricing power for big pharma going forward? don't see how anything that comes in the future could be as sweet at obamacare for them - they are still up 100% from 2010-2011 lets not forget. <br />washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23489535104731698242016-10-18T20:05:25.994+01:002016-10-18T20:05:25.994+01:00So maybe rally after (or right before) elections, ...<i>So maybe rally after (or right before) elections, making 12yo HFM richer?</i><br />Already happening bruh, our JP/EU equity positions up hundreds of bps today. Lit af.12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87818656812027648892016-10-18T19:38:18.614+01:002016-10-18T19:38:18.614+01:00Well, the impact on drug companies are pretty much...Well, the impact on drug companies are pretty much priced in. And it all depends on who control house right now, given that Dem will take WH and senate.<br /><br />And on CA prop-61, it looks like that the opposition has some legitimate concerns but it is going to pass anyway. <br /><br />And another thing on this election, the most recent wiki leak on HRC suggested that she actually likes oil/gas more than we think (and dislike extreme environmental groups, see FT article). This should be slightly bullish to oil/gas stocks and would be interesting to see if any opportunity would emerge.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89074821497335304882016-10-18T17:51:09.953+01:002016-10-18T17:51:09.953+01:00Anyone else wondering why "running hot" ...Anyone else wondering why "running hot" in shelter (+3.4%) and medical (+5.2%) is a good thing? If I understand the thinking correctly, a modest but positive inflation assumption will drive consumption via the "cheaper today than tomorrow" paradigm. Fine, and I agree it applies to discretionary purchases, but I'm not about to stock up on hep-c treatments or extra places to live in anticipation of higher prices. I do wish the FOMC spoke about inflation with a little more nuance. If Clinton is elected and pushes through drug pricing reform (or CA prop-61 etc) - is that bad policy because lowering drug costs will bring inflation down?<br /><br />With my recent fairly neutral and flat positioning I'm finding it harder than expected to generate conviction about most anything.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8593932877609281812016-10-18T17:29:50.351+01:002016-10-18T17:29:50.351+01:00Thank you for the interesting post, MM. And nicely...Thank you for the interesting post, MM. And nicely done on your AUDNZD exit the other day.<br /><br />5s/30s is curious here. JPM argues it's 20bps too steep on their model, which is a regression on 2y3m OIS, 5y5y inflation swap rates, and VA insurance hedging needs. Seen that way, it's at the wides of the last 5 years. Will be interesting to see whether we get a regime change ... plausible if inflation picks up and Yellen runs hot/does optimal control, and/or if a party sweeps the executive and congress and boosts fiscal spending (electronic markets have Democrats at only 20%-ish odds of that).<br /><br /><br />johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58131338058266987882016-10-18T16:53:30.523+01:002016-10-18T16:53:30.523+01:00Re: repo rates.
I'd say banks are unwilling t...Re: repo rates.<br /><br />I'd say banks are unwilling to <i>intermediate</i> repo trades on balance sheet. However, a big theme since ~2011 has been quality collateral shortage, which has pushed down GC repo rates as banks struggle to reverse in enough govies into their liquidity buffers (in lieu of cash). The effect is particularly acute at quarter- and year-end.<br /><br />I'm told that swaps are collateralised series of of 3-month credit risk, plausibly lower risk than 30y govt. Also receiving in the long end by corporates feels like a bigger driver than GC.<br /><br />CCMMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13592550940487976152016-10-18T14:12:59.626+01:002016-10-18T14:12:59.626+01:00Great post MM on long end swap spreads. USSP30 rea...Great post MM on long end swap spreads. USSP30 really is quite the conundrum!<br />I completely agree that at -56 it is an opportunity, but having been burned before fighting this, it is a trade that needs strong discipline and strong conviction to withstand the potential volatility. The positive carry is overwhelmed by the DV01 risk, and its illiquidity (appearing to trade by appointment) has it prone to 'gap'. As the chart shows, this spread has never really recovered from the events around Lehman where RV accounts were blown out and bank balance sheet risks curtailed.JMTnoreply@blogger.com