tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4948252377687369074..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Fear and greedMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35989163529428146692007-11-21T14:44:00.000+00:002007-11-21T14:44:00.000+00:00In US, the consumer spending will continue being w...In US, the consumer spending will continue being weak for a while. According to my source, neary all states see a flat sale tax growth(taken other factors into consideration, such as tax rate...) in the next 6-12 months.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11371193332017369600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26476221210513289062007-11-21T13:52:00.000+00:002007-11-21T13:52:00.000+00:00Brad, there have been several, and for fairly obvi...Brad, there have been several, and for fairly obvious reasons: oil revenues, rserve accrual from certain Asian CBs, and of course the need to get portfolios to benchmark at year end. <BR/><BR/>The very fact that these guys continue to buy EUR at such eye-watering levels is instructive. Even as the dollar rallies against a lot of other stuff, it goes down against the euro (as well as erstwhile funders yen and CHF.)<BR/><BR/>It does seem, however, that they are less active in sterling these days, perhaps because of the obvious warts in the UK economy.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25068130073581785152007-11-21T09:29:00.000+00:002007-11-21T09:29:00.000+00:00I'd suggest that the relationship of the VIX (or b...I'd suggest that the relationship of the VIX (or better its inverse) to the S&P behaves similarly to a 'momentum' indicator, like the RSI - its reflexes becoming weaker under repeated stimulus. Both are good signals if your take on the situation is fundamentally correct. If that's not the case, they're just inevitable results of their own makeup and have no value whatsoever.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73035730165453595492007-11-21T00:31:00.001+00:002007-11-21T00:31:00.001+00:00MM,Regarding the divergence between SPX lows witho...MM,<BR/><BR/>Regarding the divergence between SPX lows without corresponding VIX highs (or vice-versa), I have looked at the charts in a casual manner, but haven't taken the subject on as a formal research project. If and when I take this on, I'll do my best to remember to fill you in on my conclusions.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/><BR/>-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80466680902875176292007-11-21T00:31:00.000+00:002007-11-21T00:31:00.000+00:0030% off freddie mac: fear wins?30% off freddie mac: fear wins?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83444548796955429682007-11-20T22:55:00.000+00:002007-11-20T22:55:00.000+00:00macroman -- any sense of which CBs have been selli...macroman -- any sense of which CBs have been selling $? tis interesting news, but it might just reflect the fact that reserve growth looks to have picked up once again. the oil guys are flush and the RBI has been intervening quite significantly over the past couple of months (no oil there) and it consequently has to sell a lot of $ just to meet its targets.<BR/><BR/>bsetserAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70871457682682342142007-11-20T19:58:00.000+00:002007-11-20T19:58:00.000+00:00Bill, have you done any work on the postitive dive...Bill, have you done any work on the postitive divergence observed yesterday, e.g. SPX makes a new low (say over a 1 month horizon) but VIX does not make a new high? If so, I'd be curious to know if there's anythign there; if not, maybe I'll have a look when I get some time. Regardless, the 'divergence' signal isn't working today...<BR/><BR/>Claus, I'd agree that EUR/USD (or, more to the point, EUR/RMB) is the wrong price; but the first rule of currencies is that the wrong price get get wronger and stay longer than you'd expect. The major demand drivers, CBs, are still in play; they've been seen buying on a 1.48 handle today. If the dollar countertrend rally is going to happen, I'd suggest new year as a likely timeframe, when CBs recede from prominence and threre's another 1-2 months of crappy data for the ECB to digest.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22088478468860990852007-11-20T19:43:00.000+00:002007-11-20T19:43:00.000+00:00Another good post MM ... And when will the Dollar ...Another good post MM ... <BR/><BR/>And when will the Dollar whipping ever end? The EUR/USD is at 1.48 and rising and the USD is even close to parity with the Swissie :). <BR/><BR/>Well, we will see just how far the fundamentals can get strected but the longer this muddles on the more I worry that the Eurozone will have to say bye-bye to one or two members. Especially, if CGC de-pegging leads to a violent sell-off of USD denominated assets. <BR/><BR/>Portugal clocked in 0.0% GDP q-o-q in Q3 and Italy for all intent and purposes is headed straight for a recession. If German corporate capex grinds to a hold as many analysts are predicting the whole edifice will come down very quickly I think (i.e. the ECB will need to lower rates). <BR/><BR/>ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69504247615281025762007-11-20T17:31:00.000+00:002007-11-20T17:31:00.000+00:00Good stuff, Macro Man, from a long time reader.For...Good stuff, Macro Man, from a long time reader.<BR/><BR/>For the record <A HREF="http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2007/11/three-noteworthy-posts-from-afar.html" REL="nofollow">my research</A> indicates that a high positive correlation between the SPX and VIX is more likely to precede a market downturn than a high negative correlation.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/><BR/>-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80607224544235031382007-11-20T15:16:00.000+00:002007-11-20T15:16:00.000+00:00I am almost entirely driven by fundamental bottoms...I am almost entirely driven by fundamental bottoms up, single stock analysis. But I have to say, that the Nov. 8th intra-day price action in Citigroup and single day surge in the VIX that very day made me think we were starting an intermediate term bottoming process. I thought it was quite curious.<BR/><BR/>The sooner we reach bottom in equities, the quicker foreign investors will be to snap up cheap US companies. It could help buttress the ailing dollar.prophetshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16688051502761732148noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67160087905610835012007-11-20T14:23:00.000+00:002007-11-20T14:23:00.000+00:00Not scientifically, which is why I point it out bu...Not scientifically, which is why I point it out but don't take it as gospel.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88398013441721177562007-11-20T14:13:00.000+00:002007-11-20T14:13:00.000+00:00do you have an idea of the reability of vix bullis...do you have an idea of the reability of vix bullish divergence?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com