tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4888028485372352423..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Struggling For InspirationMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36499161760250929712009-03-28T19:50:00.000+00:002009-03-28T19:50:00.000+00:00so theoretically he could do it.ifhe can push on a...so theoretically he could do it.<BR/>if<BR/>he can push on a string until<BR/>we switched from fossils to electrons<BR/>and if<BR/>we get a productivity boost because of it<BR/>and if<BR/>SS obligations don't come in too much/too soon<BR/>and if<BR/>there is political will<BR/>the SOB could pull it off.hopefully anonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12661079354687735952009-03-28T19:21:00.000+00:002009-03-28T19:21:00.000+00:00I suspect that the payback comes in the form of in...I suspect that the payback comes in the form of inflation. Activity will remain dire until velocity turns around (albeit with the odd quarter or two of growth)....once velocity turns, there is little chance, in my view, of the Fed negotiating an inflationless recovery is about the same as me replacing Geithner as the next Treasury secretary.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55126696589928895692009-03-28T17:56:00.000+00:002009-03-28T17:56:00.000+00:00riddle me this, macro man:securitization market dr...riddle me this, macro man:<BR/><BR/>securitization market dropped from $10t to $2t.<BR/><BR/>the fed steps in and reflate in order to avoid civilization collapse.<BR/><BR/>given free cash, corporations keep people employed but inflation is flat due to velocity. this goes on for say, 5 years.<BR/><BR/>is that it? is there a free lunch out there? can we print our way to the good life? i know money is not wealth, but if bernanke can keep this fine act long enough, could it work out w/o inflation?<BR/><BR/>what am i missing?hopefully anonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35966242987501832642009-03-28T15:50:00.000+00:002009-03-28T15:50:00.000+00:00I really enjoy your blog but...You might want to c...I really enjoy your blog but...<BR/><BR/>You might want to consider a name change to Micro Man if daily noise is causing you pain....<BR/><BR/>Maximus<BR/>http://4best4worst.wordpress.com/maximushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04196485766676042347noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18834715890318644952009-03-27T21:12:00.000+00:002009-03-27T21:12:00.000+00:00April will also be noisy - the G20 summit will sup...April will also be noisy - the G20 summit will supply lots of noise.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10108621905100701382009-03-27T18:25:00.000+00:002009-03-27T18:25:00.000+00:00I've got a direction....short USD. The printing p...I've got a direction....short USD. The printing presses are pumping. The economy should get moving (slowly) at the expense of foreign faith in USD and associated paper. Globalization starts to reemerge from more organic roots, with the US consumer taking moving to the passenger seat and IMF interests, Euro, and China pressing forward. The end of financialization.Jeffrey D. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13278340373246734203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2670660082026147782009-03-27T14:28:00.000+00:002009-03-27T14:28:00.000+00:00Please understand: talk to structured product quan...Please understand: talk to structured product quants on the Street, they will explain that bonds held on bank balance sheets were marked UP eggregiously when they were first issued. Senior management wanted the PnL, they wanted to get PAID off those insane marks.<BR/><BR/>Fast-forward to today. Now we see bonds only slightly marked down. What's happened? Banks have only marked down that initial bogus PnL mark when the bonds were first issued. This does not apply to all bonds, of course, but to a substantial portion of bad debt out there it does.<BR/><BR/>THAT'S THE DIRTY SECRET. That's why Crittenden is moving to London. All the big insiders at banks know this, the quants will tell you. Subpenea the quants and they will talk, they were the one's who marked the bonds up, they know what they are worth now. Geithner HAS to know what's going on, it happened on his watch at NY FED. <BR/><BR/>Christ, I feel like I'm talking to Bob Woodward in a basement parking garage in Washington, D.C., circa 1973. <BR/><BR/>Somebody's gotta get this info to the right people. Ask the right questions and Cuomo might see what a scam this is. Geithner's plan is the biggest scam. FOLLOW THE MONEY, GIVE THE QUANTS IMMUNITY, THEY'LL EXPLAIN IT ALL.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51447997675895273852009-03-27T14:23:00.000+00:002009-03-27T14:23:00.000+00:00With EOM next Tuesday, and M2M/uptick rule discuss...With EOM next Tuesday, and M2M/uptick rule discussions due in Congress on April 2nd and April 8th, a sizeable bear rally is on the cards. Even in the great depression we had rallies to the 200ma, and if we are to have a repeat in this great depression the next few weeks is a good a time as any.<BR/>I'm long the S&P and looking for 950+ by the mid to end of April. Then it will be time to short into the autumn.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43848558178290245412009-03-27T13:57:00.000+00:002009-03-27T13:57:00.000+00:00Anon, I wish I knew. If I did, perhaps I would ha...Anon, I wish I knew. If I did, perhaps I would have avoided the short equity position (based partially on the credit issue that you flag) that has contributed to my frustration this month.<BR/><BR/>My only explanation is one of positioning....i.e., the wakest hands were short, not long, and have been squeezed.<BR/><BR/>Anon @ 12.32, there has been some mumbling about $ selling (monthly rebalance) and equity buying/bond selling for quarterly rebalancinbg. But I'd charaxterize it as low-quality speculation rather than an informed forecast.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55320802734577522582009-03-27T13:45:00.000+00:002009-03-27T13:45:00.000+00:00MM, first time post from a 'lurker'/novice who enj...MM, first time post from a 'lurker'/novice who enjoys your blog none the less.<BR/><BR/>I can not make sense of the current rally in equities when credit markets, the target of all the rescue operations, are still pricing in disaster. Are the credit markets too liquid to reflect what equities are telling us?<BR/><BR/>Perhaps a basic question but your insight would be appreciated.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66432856182167901362009-03-27T13:06:00.000+00:002009-03-27T13:06:00.000+00:00bears had hoped mcclellan summation would fail at ...bears had hoped mcclellan summation would fail at flatline, it's still going:<BR/>http://www.mcoscillator.com/Data.html<BR/><BR/>tim redeemed himself yesterday it seems, getting dollar and treasuries back up<BR/><BR/>obama and the banks meet today!<BR/><BR/>TGIF!<BR/>-deacAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83050027958663560692009-03-27T12:32:00.000+00:002009-03-27T12:32:00.000+00:00Hey. Any news about quarter-end buying of the big ...Hey. Any news about quarter-end buying of the big guys??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64291978330761504302009-03-27T10:47:00.000+00:002009-03-27T10:47:00.000+00:00Hi MM..Sorry to hear your losses, but they are a p...Hi MM..<BR/><BR/>Sorry to hear your losses, but they are a part of this game! I wish you much better in April because that's good for your readers as well. <BR/>I personally had a satisfactory result in USD-INR this month. <BR/><BR/>From India..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com