tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post485670574928425702..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: A bit of 2007, a bit of 2008Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56550390763176163012008-01-03T15:26:00.000+00:002008-01-03T15:26:00.000+00:00AUD's housing bubble isn't yet breaking down like ...AUD's housing bubble isn't yet breaking down like in the UK, the resources sector is a much bigger proportion of the economy, and it still seems quite likely that the AU Reserve Bank will need to keep raising rates.<BR/><BR/>Food for thought.<BR/><BR/>I like GBPAUD vs your other suggestions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88408332895140749752008-01-03T08:14:00.000+00:002008-01-03T08:14:00.000+00:00well the AUD have the same ills of GBP. big curren...well the AUD have the same ills of GBP. big current account deficit and a housing bubbleAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9457585618933906722008-01-03T04:25:00.000+00:002008-01-03T04:25:00.000+00:00Shorting GBPAUD or GBPAUD might not be a bad trade...Shorting GBPAUD or GBPAUD might not be a bad trade... those pairs will probably have more juice than GBPUSD.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41975534070322883102008-01-03T00:11:00.000+00:002008-01-03T00:11:00.000+00:00which currency are you planning to short the GBP a...which currency are you planning to short the GBP against?I'm considering this trade(it seems like a slam dunk given the fundamentals and the tendency of currency markets to trend)but I still havent decided the currency, swiss franc will be a slow mover and the negative carry will eat most profits, I might have to settle with goldAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81532011440853290472008-01-02T19:29:00.000+00:002008-01-02T19:29:00.000+00:00Ian, blame it on New Year's. It is correct as pub...Ian, blame it on New Year's. It is correct as published; the trade is bet on lower European rates relative to the US. So I receive a fixed European coupon of 4.54%, which will look attractive if rates fall. In the US, I pay a fixed coupon of 3.85%, which will look attractive if rates rise. If both happen at the same time, I'm quids in!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85553599112634417752008-01-02T16:25:00.000+00:002008-01-02T16:25:00.000+00:00perhaps I am misreading your post or am still reco...perhaps I am misreading your post or am still recovering from New Years, but if you are betting on a reversal in swap spreads, wouldn't you want to receive US and pay EUR?Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12325797293534490304noreply@blogger.com