tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4694926391947407455..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: OooooffffMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82247126837955094992009-10-23T13:56:21.000+01:002009-10-23T13:56:21.000+01:0038 offer L Z9 for you, baby.....38 offer L Z9 for you, baby.....Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90843085943095467272009-10-23T10:16:45.130+01:002009-10-23T10:16:45.130+01:00What I find amusing about UK economy bulls is they...What I find amusing about UK economy bulls is they really do not see quite how bad next year is going to be. As the government is such a large part of GDP, the cancellation of major projects and cost cuts in NHS are going to really hit the economy. You are already seeing it in the CE industry - by example in London: Victoria Station, TCR and Bond Street extensions have all been put "on hold". Yesterday, the Land Registry announced plans to reduce staffing by about 20%. NHS for the next 2/3 years will be a net source of job losses as their budget is cut 10%+.<br /><br />Quite what the market expects from being short SS or long cable at the moment is beyond me.<br /><br />As for John Meriwether, that is laughable. I thought the world would finally have realised that RV is a BS strategy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36143882732583248812009-10-22T19:36:51.087+01:002009-10-22T19:36:51.087+01:00typo: dollar bear!typo: dollar bear!CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54962349227067295512009-10-22T19:28:36.331+01:002009-10-22T19:28:36.331+01:00Will a "leader" from the Economist and a...Will a "leader" from the Economist and a big article be enough here? <br /><br />http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14699877<br /><br />This picture has broken the back on many a dollar bull before :) !<br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59541950867438725852009-10-22T18:49:50.587+01:002009-10-22T18:49:50.587+01:00Oooohh. New compensation guidelines, for 28 firms....Oooohh. New compensation guidelines, for 28 firms. Next they'll be asking the sell-side to tell the truth. You might see a few more billion SPOOS tossed out of the pram here...<br /><br />EUR:USD 1.50 was looking sticky today.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33092744470521021232009-10-22T17:30:05.097+01:002009-10-22T17:30:05.097+01:00BTW a bit of Kremlinology, Russia central bank gol...BTW a bit of Kremlinology, <a href="http://i34.tinypic.com/334teyo.jpg" rel="nofollow">Russia central bank gold reserves</a>.Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43500403827345137232009-10-22T17:06:50.792+01:002009-10-22T17:06:50.792+01:00KRW, INR, RMB sovereigns all openly buy dollars on...KRW, INR, RMB sovereigns all openly buy dollars on a regular basis. Why locate capital there when you can buy euros, where it's not clear even who is in charge of the FX rate, let alone predisposed to intervene?Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70649450104755436102009-10-22T15:07:02.512+01:002009-10-22T15:07:02.512+01:00It's the "five minute macro" innit.It's the "five minute macro" innit.Nicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91337889284264509662009-10-22T15:02:29.843+01:002009-10-22T15:02:29.843+01:00LB, I dunno, really. Speaking only for myself, I ...LB, I dunno, really. Speaking only for myself, I feel like there is still decent money to be made, so still swinging the bat....Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79131828618227338912009-10-22T14:50:08.454+01:002009-10-22T14:50:08.454+01:00Now who would want to dump a couple billion SPOOZ ...Now who would want to dump a couple billion SPOOZ in the middle of a quiet trading afternoon? Maybe someone wanted to raise cash to put into Meriwether's new Black Box stat arb fund?<br /><br />Macro Man, any thoughts on whether banks and institutional fixed income PMs might want to de-risk a little as EoY approaches? Perhaps they might want to be carrying fewer turds into the end of the year?leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91383888013302276362009-10-22T14:20:34.626+01:002009-10-22T14:20:34.626+01:00INR is getting hit on back of Rallying Crude, as w...INR is getting hit on back of Rallying Crude, as we import most of our crude requirements. <br /><br />..From India!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71275035255164740812009-10-22T13:41:07.833+01:002009-10-22T13:41:07.833+01:00Yes Barry-O is now setting the salaries here in th...Yes Barry-O is now setting the salaries here in the land of the free. Dick Cheney zinged Barry nicely in a speech last night as well...it's not good to piss off Cheney. <br /><br />Ever heard the Cheney Tijuana story:<br /><br />While on a sex-spree in a Tijuana whorehouse, Dick Cheney used a live cougar as a condom.<br /><br />The bodycount was fourteen Mexican whores and one cougar.<br /><br />In Tijuana, they refer to this as "The Night of the Sodomizing Cougar-Man."<br />Dick Cheney refers to it as "last Thursday."Professional Gringonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21935009142775801002009-10-22T13:30:27.061+01:002009-10-22T13:30:27.061+01:00Take a look at the UKbase rate against the UK 3M f...Take a look at the UKbase rate against the UK 3M fixing. In the end of 2002 and first part 2006 the fixing can go 30bps wide... Not saying that it's the same scenario though.Berwangernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45863804909115115992009-10-22T12:47:09.981+01:002009-10-22T12:47:09.981+01:00I'm 34 offered on front sterling. Feel free to...I'm 34 offered on front sterling. Feel free to lift it :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21189238991059688312009-10-22T12:08:01.738+01:002009-10-22T12:08:01.738+01:00Stg price action is more a function of market posi...Stg price action is more a function of market positioning and lack of pain tolerance than any change in tone from Merv or anyone else. The CTA community will have had another bad week in FX land (throw it on the pile), if you look just about everything they owned has been put out with the trash. I would expect more hormonal price action into year end.KGBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51266851251574623832009-10-22T11:09:28.049+01:002009-10-22T11:09:28.049+01:00and and on the subject of turds, MBIA is on the ho...and and on the subject of turds, MBIA is on the hook for Lane Cove tunnel which is doing about 45% less traffic than planned. <br /><br />1.14bn of bonds<br />*.45<br />= $510mm of hole in your pants, or, half your market cap. <br /><br />Just in case anyone thought that we'd seen the back of the evil provisioning monkey.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-178834363795922722009-10-22T10:56:02.340+01:002009-10-22T10:56:02.340+01:00Move out to Asia Macro Man. The taxes are low and ...Move out to Asia Macro Man. The taxes are low and the high net worth individuals plentiful.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91260655001872310742009-10-22T10:55:53.589+01:002009-10-22T10:55:53.589+01:00Think the sterling rally is a bit presumptuous.
Wh...Think the sterling rally is a bit presumptuous.<br />Whatever Merv may have said it isn't 5 mins since he made it clear he wanted more QE and indeed only the other day his chort Posen said the same thing.<br /><br />Either Merv's a schizophrenic ,or he's trying to blag the market from doing what it really wants to do which is value £ where it belongs ...in the toilet.<br /><br />Indeed in my experience a move as rapid as this one is invariably down to people riding the short term trend with stops up close.<br /><br />The longer term players can take this action to add to their position.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36313764598669918972009-10-22T10:51:09.881+01:002009-10-22T10:51:09.881+01:00I can't believe Meriwether is hitting the rese...I can't believe Meriwether is hitting the reset switch again...actually let me rephrase that - I can, what I can't believe is that people will actually give him money to "manage". It seems results aren't that important anymore as long as when you blow up, you blow up HUGE...no point losing 10% for investors when you can lost 90%...you won't be offered another job if you only lose 10%, but if you dust 90% someone will be there to offer you a sweet gig...it's perverse...and fundamentally wrong. <br /><br />EAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com