tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post462020017940025848..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: PIN'ing the BlameMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78432659958094630982011-09-26T10:17:42.342+01:002011-09-26T10:17:42.342+01:00C says'
Asia's got it's own mess to mo...C says'<br />Asia's got it's own mess to mop up now. It bet QE policy would backstop crap finance and it didn't so now many parties are going to have to work out that swap that substitutes bricks and mortars for pounds of copper and the need to eat.Unwind what they wound up.<br />That's why the Asia overnight sell might make Western opens look negative for some time. Main Western problem is still Europe ,but even there the banks have been so bombed out I have to belive that shorters will move on to easier pickings more concerned with growth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10399500949491780232011-09-26T08:07:31.881+01:002011-09-26T08:07:31.881+01:00There is a huge sucking sound coming from Asia aga...There is a huge sucking sound coming from Asia again today. The asset that wasn't supposed to go down is diving off a cliff...time to put on the kevlar gloves? <br /><br />Not surprisingly liquidity is very poor, particularly in South East Asia.Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34016480632724199552011-09-26T03:54:49.770+01:002011-09-26T03:54:49.770+01:00Hero Zedge, mate.
Not much Eurofudge in evidence ...Hero Zedge, mate.<br /><br />Not much Eurofudge in evidence after the weekend meetings, not much encouragement for bulls, Tokyo open predictably shows catch-up selling for Thursday's drop around the world.<br /><br />Last minute band-aids are possible before the open in Europe, I suppose....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15834382960056328042011-09-26T00:32:22.075+01:002011-09-26T00:32:22.075+01:00Thanks for the Marc Faber links.
BTW what is the b...Thanks for the Marc Faber links.<br />BTW what is the blog that cannot be named?Manc Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15419060899207287530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76771614472827342922011-09-24T21:55:06.223+01:002011-09-24T21:55:06.223+01:00The always incisive and amusing Marc Faber telling...The always incisive and amusing Marc Faber telling it like it is on Greece, I liked the following: "I don't know anyone who owns Greek bonds", "If you are Greece you are stuffed..", "the rich Greek people in London have all of the money from the international community..", many other great lines here.<br /><br /><a href="http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/link.html?cn=uidTWASIA&cid=265773&shareToken=MzpkMzJjMDcxNi03YTcyLTQ5YzAtYWEyZC05ZWY4Y2MyZGFiMjU%3D&start=0&end=303" rel="nofollow"> Marc Faber on Greece Part 1 </a><br /><br /><a href="http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/link.html?cn=uidTWASIA&cid=266242&shareToken=MzpiOTk4MWJjNy03MmY0LTQ4YjYtOTc4NC0xODg5NTQ5NjNmYTY%3D&start=0&end=230" rel="nofollow"> Marc Faber on Greece Part 2 </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32809801459769933122011-09-23T23:36:09.583+01:002011-09-23T23:36:09.583+01:00Yeah well, as Krugman concluded today, "I hav...Yeah well, as Krugman concluded today, "I haven’t developed a full theory of the sociology going on here. But these organizations should be doing some agonized soul-searching, asking how they got it so wrong while posing as high priests of economic expertise."<br /><br />http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/23/eurovillains/<br /><br />Meanwhile, I'm well into The Tipping Point now (soz, I haven't a clue how to embed this stuff.)<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Tipping_Point<br /><br />Like the man says, ideas, products, messages and behaviour spread like viruses do.<br /><br />Spanking weekend y'all.ntwscnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80955023614457131742011-09-23T21:17:42.630+01:002011-09-23T21:17:42.630+01:00Thought about a punt but did nothing - I have enou...Thought about a punt but did nothing - I have enough long exposure for the weekend anyway, no need to play ECB roulette here.<br /><br />Have a good weekend, all.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89569391522800394302011-09-23T21:09:04.507+01:002011-09-23T21:09:04.507+01:00C says'
I'll take a bearish plunge anyday ...C says'<br />I'll take a bearish plunge anyday rather than Friday motorway traffic.<br /><br />I don't read too much stuff because it just clogs up my own thoughts,but that article from Klugmnn is it is not much different to what I've been outlining ..we have political ideological barriers combined with a central bank that though not strictly Austerian does have a tendency to be rather robotic in the way it slavishly applies itself to inflation meaasures without to much furthr analyis.The former is the impetus to creating the kind of momentum that gets an issue rolling (starts a f..g war) and the latter because of it's inate way of applying itself is simply the wrong backstop to have in place to put a stop to that war quickly.<br />I actually do believe they will get a Euro resolution that isn't absolutely destructive to the Euro and it's associated political system ,but I would put no money on it being in time to activate BEFORE a major pressure event.In other words it does not show itself to be proactive in the slightest,its record to date as been all about being reactive trying to fix whatever the latests blowup has been.I see no reason why that is going to change because that's the only way they appear to have of selling their intervention to the diehards and general public who are tired of seeing their productivity going to such causes. EG.. we did it people to save you..honest!!<br /><br />As for the market I think the bank issue is subsumed anyway as it stands because there's still a lot of relative strength money in the Asian growth story that needs to be flushed out before we have rebalanced the effects of monetary intervention.<br />Just think of all the funds that started selling the idea of portfolio diversification into commodities and Asian/Chinese growth because the trend in historic investments had been so poor...they still have not puked it all back yet so I thnk we have more miners/oils/emerging stuff to come in fact I'd expect this to be a more significant contributor to further selling that the shelled out banks.Let's bear in mind here that of all the major economies that are high growth the one most exposed to Western austerity because of it's economic balance is China and that story is only on chapter 1 at this time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56286776877897262832011-09-23T20:40:54.710+01:002011-09-23T20:40:54.710+01:00LB I wholeheartedly agree. Interesting note from ...LB I wholeheartedly agree. Interesting note from Mansori that he referenced today as well. <br /><br />http://streetlightblog.blogspot.com/<br /><br />Seems that part of getting the solution right is some EZ soul searching as to what caused the crisis to begin with. I wonder if we're getting closer to crossing that bridge now and am tempted to pick up a little exposure to leveraged long EUR positions that have been absolutely decimated as of late.willemnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-730282206853482792011-09-23T20:31:30.078+01:002011-09-23T20:31:30.078+01:00How is it you've gone an entire day without us...How is it you've gone an entire day without using "vengabus"? Everyone is primed for it!Robert in Chicagonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31215270120947841772011-09-23T20:20:26.905+01:002011-09-23T20:20:26.905+01:00I am not usually a big fan - but this Krugman arti...I am not usually a big fan - but this Krugman article was pretty much on the mark, especially with regard to the ECB's role in the debt debacle, and remains so:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/opinion/an-impeccable-disaster.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss" rel="nofollow"> JCT's Impeccable Disaster </a><br /><br />At the end he says, when are they going to cut rates and buy the debt? IOW, they must repeat the FED's 2008 actions by taking "sub-prime" bonds on to their balance sheet. They need only do this with Greece to fix the problem of confidence that has infected Spain and Italy and created an electronic bank run on France and Germany. Portugal is a story for another day.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54724399006827292282011-09-23T19:02:24.667+01:002011-09-23T19:02:24.667+01:00LB on selling silver, "A brief but exquisitel...LB on selling silver, "A brief but exquisitely pleasurable interlude, much like viewing Karen's ankles." Classic. My laughs for the weekend.willemnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72651574859117214622011-09-23T18:37:42.344+01:002011-09-23T18:37:42.344+01:00Yes, LB agrees there is amazing misallocation of c...Yes, LB agrees there is amazing misallocation of capital. The reflation trades are getting royally hosed this week but solid income producers have been sold as well. <br /><br />LB hates the vanity retail, the etailers, and all the tech/biotechs, many of which are little more than Ponzis. AAPL might be worth the money but the NAZ is full of trash.<br /><br />BTW, there is some very serious pain at The Blog That Shall Not Be Named today... don't look if you are faint of heart....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81658323261840406772011-09-23T18:29:43.534+01:002011-09-23T18:29:43.534+01:00LB I agree..I was using $80 as a really bear case....LB I agree..I was using $80 as a really bear case.. at 13x you get 1040 .. where I would like to buy.,, pretty much around here<br /><br />my only problem with S&P EPS is that the multiple on most large caps is low, while high fly tech like CRM , AMZN is still out there. Would want to see a sell off in those names before I got really itchy fingersabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73749415934861827992011-09-23T17:36:53.439+01:002011-09-23T17:36:53.439+01:00Abee, US economy is a great big ship and it just d...Abee, US economy is a great big ship and it just doesn't turn on a dime. US businesses have been running lean and mean and not hiring. <$80 would be a big drop, too much too soon. <br /><br />We had a mini oil shock in the Spring/Summer but we didn't stop commerce dead. Remember that the formerly bloated finance/RE sector just isn't as big a contributor to earnings now.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25800963723918164332011-09-23T17:34:53.289+01:002011-09-23T17:34:53.289+01:00Well played LB, i.e. not going short into fudge w...Well played LB, i.e. not going short into fudge weekend ...CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33142609895341737882011-09-23T17:31:56.494+01:002011-09-23T17:31:56.494+01:00I closed my silver short, Claus. A brief but exqui...I closed my silver short, Claus. A brief but exquisitely pleasurable interlude, much like viewing Karen's ankles. Happily, we can anticipate many repeat performances in the future.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26885121048921459952011-09-23T17:30:01.883+01:002011-09-23T17:30:01.883+01:00good price action today in europe and treasuries. ...good price action today in europe and treasuries. I feel like buying some br real<br /><br />LB, I dont know what is wrong with bear case scenario planning of $80 EPS for spoo's? what margins are going to contract massively?<br /><br />Double top in gold, and silver chart just looks ugly.abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63558987369614504002011-09-23T17:27:51.047+01:002011-09-23T17:27:51.047+01:00You will jinx it LB. Gold is close to the 100dma w...You will jinx it LB. Gold is close to the 100dma which has been a very good entry point in the past ... (not withstanding that some here would note that technicals are off at this point due to liquidation/run for the exits dollar short/long all else squeeze. <br /><br />Seriously though, gold does well when real rates are negative and they will remain negative for a looong time. Of course, blow outs are guaranteed as well, now ... <br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71817501849732426002011-09-23T17:17:52.151+01:002011-09-23T17:17:52.151+01:00Gold and silver are a bit of a religion. It's ...Gold and silver are a bit of a religion. It's tough to see people, losing their religion...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2dVAl6l0Is" rel="nofollow"> Losing My Religion </a><br /><br />Oh, now I've said too much....!!!Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41955932190261733252011-09-23T17:13:25.247+01:002011-09-23T17:13:25.247+01:00Going with the PIN concept, the DAX closed more or...Going with the PIN concept, the DAX closed more or less flat, but above 5000, and even today's intra-day low was above the previous low. So by the PIN principle, that's madly bullish.... but we need a SPX close over 1100 as well.<br /><br />We can assume that the Fudge Factory™ will be insanely busy this weekend, this time it will be operating in Washington DC.<br /><br />As Polemic points out, Bucky's run does seem to have been terminated in Asia overnight. Trading ranges intact? This is what has been learned from 2008. Kill sharp dollar rallies stone dead, before the carry unwind threatens the fabric of the universe.<br /><br />By the way, we think many people have missed the positive impact on the US (not to mention the indefatigable Connie Consumer) of Big Ben's re-entry to the mortgage bond markets, and of soon to be falling gasoline prices. <br /><br />As for the $80 and below EPS, guys, you are either going to be early or dead wrong. But 2013, that's another matter. Between now and then, Obama and Ben will take it in turns to squirt lighter fuel at the sputtering coals. Sure, a few bystanders will get burned, but there will continue to be burgers !Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56078315060441410862011-09-23T17:07:06.287+01:002011-09-23T17:07:06.287+01:00God almighty ... gold and silver really go when th...God almighty ... gold and silver really go when the go don't they. Of course, Dr C is having a screamer as well today. <br /><br />CfC has already talked about kids playing with leverage here and this is certainly what we are seeing . They are all being called back home to mom for a spanking. <br /><br />Eventually the central banks will cave in to the momos obviously. As for the G20, well colour me unimpressed in advance. A committment to commit to doing something at some point is what we will likely get. <br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17137383022369397612011-09-23T16:24:57.977+01:002011-09-23T16:24:57.977+01:00Re 15% rates: I think there is something to that. ...Re 15% rates: I think there is something to that. Sharply reduced interest rates apparently tells people "Things must be bad, better hold on the cash" while 10% rates instead says "Inflation will eat the cash, better invest in that business/bulding/invention fast". <br /><br />Re FTL particles: forget the HFTs, when can I buy a spaceship ticket?Vasastannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76798742431392590912011-09-23T15:40:23.787+01:002011-09-23T15:40:23.787+01:00"Particles have been found that are able to t..."Particles have been found that are able to travel faster than the speed of light" <br />the explanation for HFT trades executed 190 milliseconds before their corresponding quotes?72batnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76620427359296051752011-09-23T15:17:01.800+01:002011-09-23T15:17:01.800+01:00Latest CPI from Canada, 3.1%Y/Y. Negative interest...Latest CPI from Canada, 3.1%Y/Y. Negative interest rates. Carney's been warning, since 2008, of int. rate increases! Ex-Goldmanite!<br /><br />Fixed incomers are fried, especially the old who can't play the stock mkt.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com