tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4363366761850904912..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Macro Trading Fantasy CampMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49964849684153048272020-10-05T11:37:16.187+01:002020-10-05T11:37:16.187+01:00Online game source That can be easily joined to pl...Online game source That can be easily joined to play There are more than 700 games that will gradually be available. With a team that will support you with various problems 24 hours a day <br /><a href="https://isc888-isc123.com/" rel="nofollow">สมัคร isc888</a>Ponozahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18199287388146311461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6499168923641104912020-05-20T04:26:23.794+01:002020-05-20T04:26:23.794+01:00Very nice blog, Thanks for sharing great article.
...Very nice blog, Thanks for sharing great article.<br />You are providing wonderful information, it is very useful to us.<br />Keep posting like this informative articles.<br />Thank you.<br /><br />From: Field Engineer<br /><a href="https://www.fieldengineer.com/skills/comptia-security-plus" rel="nofollow">CompTIA Secuirty+ Salary</a><br />Field Engineerhttp://www.fieldengineer.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89263564284881644172008-11-28T17:31:00.000+00:002008-11-28T17:31:00.000+00:00Mr Market wants in just at any price. I am origin...Mr Market wants in just at any price. I am originally from Turkey, now living in Manhattan. At 1.15 to the dollar, Istanbul felt more expensive than Manhattan when I was visiting back in August. In fact a cup of Starbucks coffee cost about 3 dollars in Istanbul while it is 1.65 in Manhattan. With a huge current account deficit, large amount of private sector debt in foreign currencies, and a hugely overvalued currency, all that time I was wondering who would be buying Lira and selling dollars at that rate. Now I know.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58493602982739505442008-08-01T13:16:00.000+01:002008-08-01T13:16:00.000+01:00Anon @9.34 , that's hilarious about Paterson. Wh...Anon @9.34 , that's hilarious about Paterson. Who knew that this space was being read (albeit in Braille) in such exalter circles?<BR/><BR/>Cassie, when I did my LC/SC trade, the 2 largest sectors in the RTY were financial services and consumer discretionary. The real pain occurred BEFORE the index rebalance. To be honest, I've got more or less nothing in it now, as no one seems to be able to explain the px action.<BR/><BR/>AT, it's pretty difficult to come up with a good way of going long EURTRY without being perfect in your timing or spending a large fortune in the process...which is one of the reasons that it is whee it is. <BR/><BR/>Anon @11.52, that's the trick, isn't it? Structuring a portfolio such that if you are wrong/unlucky/whatever, you lose a little bit, but if you're right, you make a ton of dough. Really, that's the deceptively simple key to long term success in this business:<BR/><BR/>Don't get killed when you're wrong and make a lot of money when you're right. "A lot of money" means different things to different people, of course; for me, I try and grind out half a percnt a month when my themes aren't working and 3-5% pr month when they are.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28646604992279254922008-08-01T12:38:00.000+01:002008-08-01T12:38:00.000+01:00For what it's worth, I think this is one of the be...For what it's worth, I think this is one of the best and most useful market blogs around, and would be very sorry if the humour entirely gave way to earnest technical analysis etc. Please keep it the way it is - it's a great source for the UK equivalents of Mrs Watanabe like me....(not that necessarily you would want to encourage any more Watanabes into the game...)Flash Rabbithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08884580380040662641noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1964961092089807012008-08-01T11:52:00.000+01:002008-08-01T11:52:00.000+01:00"The moral of the story would be better lucky than..."The moral of the story would be better lucky than smart."<BR/><BR/>You just learned that now? :)<BR/><BR/>"I did indeed receive that very phone call"<BR/><BR/>I hope whoever made that phone call goes WAY down on your credibility list.<BR/><BR/>"Well, the mistake, as you point out, is having too much in one position."<BR/><BR/>Yes, but making the correct calls on things like this can be worth a LOT of money.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70592962438246517092008-08-01T08:14:00.000+01:002008-08-01T08:14:00.000+01:00Good morning, MMwhen I got back home yesterday I r...Good morning, MM<BR/><BR/>when I got back home yesterday I realized that I completely missed the target on my long EUR/TRY paper trade via writing OTM put options on the pair. I “simply” inverted foreign and domestic interest rates while calculating the forward rate – in other words, I should have thought in Turkish and not in “European”… Well, let’s say I was still enchanted after seeing Lionel Messi playing in Florence the night before: what a player!<BR/><BR/>Anyway, let’s pretend for a while that you share my view on TRY approaching an interim low vs. EUR: how would you trade that? Via long low delta calls, i.e. your original hedge?<BR/><BR/>AT<BR/><BR/>PS: main news release today – UEFA Champions’ League preliminary stage drawing (eagerly awaiting to know our first opponents…)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65902466677168482802008-08-01T02:33:00.000+01:002008-08-01T02:33:00.000+01:00I also enjoyed the post today and all the comments...I also enjoyed the post today and all the comments as well. Very interesting for a non professional. Great blog. Hope u can get further than the Scottish Alps this year...Occamsrazorshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04040097855234798475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56810339919719429782008-07-31T21:54:00.000+01:002008-07-31T21:54:00.000+01:00MM - Concepts like "Smallcap vs. large cap" are ne...MM - <BR/><BR/>Concepts like "Smallcap vs. large cap" are never standing on terra firma where stock indices are concerned.<BR/><BR/>For a non-specialists, trustees, and even many equity PMs who use it for attribution or benchmarking purposes, still fail to understand the perils in the shifting sands.<BR/><BR/>For this reason, I would advise NOT using something so imprecise in order to express a thematic view unless you really know what it is actually expressing, and what is dominating returns. Alternatively one can get one's brokers to tailor something more specific, for example small cap retail, bank, services, and restaurant basket versus large cap intl; pharma, ,tech, oil, non-credit fincls (egg STT, NTRS, BK) and consumer non-durables. <BR/><BR/>For while the sentiment of the trade may be correct, the returns resulting from the expression might (post re-balance) catch you being short way oversold financials and long way overbought energy that migrated in opposite directions as a result of index rebalancing. This is but one example. It's really like playing with fire. <BR/><BR/>-C-"Cassandra"https://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89309061448711715342008-07-31T21:34:00.000+01:002008-07-31T21:34:00.000+01:00Don't know if you keep up with domestic US news, b...Don't know if you keep up with domestic US news, but Gov Patterson of NY announced a plan to sell state assets (bridges, tunnels, etc) to help address the state's budget crisis. I had two thoughts--- (1) Your tongue in cheek "modest proposal" has become a reality and (2)It may prove difficult to find a buyer for the Brooklyn Bridge now that it may actually be for sale. :-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33376845178595872602008-07-31T21:15:00.000+01:002008-07-31T21:15:00.000+01:00Thanks for this post, MM. As a non-professional I...Thanks for this post, MM. As a non-professional I really enjoyed it. Love the blog and read it daily. Keep up the good work!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84727259677624839622008-07-31T21:02:00.000+01:002008-07-31T21:02:00.000+01:00With crude looking likely to decline in the short ...With crude looking likely to decline in the short term, dollar weakness and equities super volitile - will gold come back into favour as a flight to quality?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6484519987492443292008-07-31T20:52:00.000+01:002008-07-31T20:52:00.000+01:00Corey, to be honest I've given up caring about the...Corey, to be honest I've given up caring about the near-term prospects for equities, and I never actually cared what Cramer had to say except for humour purposes. Whatr I've tried to do is to construct a portfolio that takes equity directionality out of the eqation, and for the time being at least it seems to be working.<BR/><BR/>Anon, the Turkey trade was put on 3 months ago as a lottery ticket. It increased in value moderately up until thuis week, and yesterday was at the threshold of becoming very interesting indeed, depending on the AKP outcome....hence my interesdt in the matter.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17197987373918672622008-07-31T19:42:00.000+01:002008-07-31T19:42:00.000+01:00V entertaining and informative post. What motivate...V entertaining and informative post. What motivated you to make a bet with a pivot point re the Turkish judiciary in the first place?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24006893796086588732008-07-31T18:40:00.000+01:002008-07-31T18:40:00.000+01:00recently, trading the yen has been great via the s...recently, trading the yen has been great via the short yen & long SPX correlation...of course trading the short yen & short SPX correlation has worked too.<BR/><BR/>is anybody else wrestling with Cramer calling a bottom? if true, it would seem to present some interesting trade opportunities that are not popping up on my radar...so i'm not sure i want him to be right, but i know what everyone else is probably thinking right now...what if he is?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12719090172129922922008-07-31T16:48:00.000+01:002008-07-31T16:48:00.000+01:00Aaha, i've tried, it works!!!at least i've cut lar...Aaha, i've tried, it works!!!<BR/>at least i've cut largely my position a lot of time ago. <BR/>But according a famous "behavioural finance's theory " i want my revenge!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62535310468349065662008-07-31T16:20:00.000+01:002008-07-31T16:20:00.000+01:00Maybe thats the best sign of capitulation to come!...Maybe thats the best sign of capitulation to come!!!<BR/><BR/>RB.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18016860587365237702008-07-31T16:12:00.000+01:002008-07-31T16:12:00.000+01:00MTI, I have found the driver of SPX/Russell. It's...MTI, I have found the driver of SPX/Russell. It's the date function in Excel- you know, if you type =today(), you get a number for the day- today is 39660.<BR/><BR/>I have observed a virtual 100% negative correlation between that Excel date function and the profitability of long SPX/short RTY.<BR/><BR/>I jest, of course, but I tell ya it feels like that.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2022397708503275012008-07-31T16:06:00.000+01:002008-07-31T16:06:00.000+01:00A highly emotive post MM, certainly chimes with ma...A highly emotive post MM, certainly chimes with many peoples' experience. The lessons to be learnt encompass both better risk management and emotional discipline, and I think can only be learnt first hand. Its just difficult to hedge well when your product suite is limited! After whipsaw today with US data, tom certainly will be interesting. Cheers, JLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30920245422189778472008-07-31T15:58:00.000+01:002008-07-31T15:58:00.000+01:00Well, it's the sort of thing where you pay a littl...Well, it's the sort of thing where you pay a little bit of premium, and if the TRY goes up a lot u have a chance to make a lot of dough. Along the way, of course, that 'little bit of premo' gets marked on your book at something between 'a little bit of premo' and 'a lot of dough'...which is where I am now!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2903965508119478882008-07-31T15:57:00.001+01:002008-07-31T15:57:00.001+01:00MM, I've appreciated instead your post, but i ackn...MM, I've appreciated instead your post, but i acknowledge that only who does our job (managing money in reality) can understand it.. however good translation!<BR/>1,5% trade on p/l?? real good one size for a bet!!! <BR/>but after this glorious moment, come back to reality: long SP500/short russel, after a good rebound yesterday, seems to countinue in an inexhaustible trend. What makes me worried is that it seems to exhibit no correlation to crack trade, crude, fx or i can't find it.. Any guess??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25194121464081133712008-07-31T15:57:00.000+01:002008-07-31T15:57:00.000+01:00Hi MM,main assumptions are both fundamental (cumul...Hi MM,<BR/><BR/>main assumptions are both fundamental (cumulated trade deficit at almost 8% of GDP, TCMB’s recently upward revision of its own inflation target – not properly good for its credibility, despite it hiking 50 bps recently – and a bet on rising risk aversion in the coming weeks…) and technical (1.80 area served pretty well as a resistance level 2H 2007 and 1Q 2008…). I’m not planning to go outright long on the pair, rather writing far OTM put options (and the negative carry should therefore translate in a higher premium cashed up front…). I’ll wait and see – being an (absolute beginner and paper) trader does have its pros!<BR/><BR/>ATAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70317841453353037352008-07-31T15:50:00.000+01:002008-07-31T15:50:00.000+01:00Dr leverage I presume?RB.Dr leverage I presume?<BR/><BR/>RB.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87603991455594800852008-07-31T15:47:00.000+01:002008-07-31T15:47:00.000+01:00Stocks go down, EUR/TRY goes up a little. Stocks ...Stocks go down, EUR/TRY goes up a little. Stocks go up, EUR/TRY goes down a lot. The position costs 0.30% per week to carry, which gets bloody expensive after a month or two. No fun at all, which is why I unhedged....and saw my lottery ticket blossom into quite a big position.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49061624075106336132008-07-31T15:38:00.000+01:002008-07-31T15:38:00.000+01:00Can you explain the long EURTRY difficulties??RB.Can you explain the long EURTRY difficulties??<BR/><BR/>RB.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com