tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4313420530232061793..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The Federales ride into townMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger54125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17229631710101633592016-01-28T13:26:17.987+00:002016-01-28T13:26:17.987+00:00Bruce - trust me I don't have an aversion to t...Bruce - trust me I don't have an aversion to the dark side, just don't like flighting the gaggle of kids iin dark vader masks falling over themselves to get in (not you of course - you are sitting inside selling tickets, counting the moolah and smiling!).<br />When the youngins are ushered out of the R rated movie I will be sure to purchase multiple tickets, I assure you. If that never happens, well, cycles are cyclical so will get more stabs.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18687668934884001852016-01-28T05:19:38.779+00:002016-01-28T05:19:38.779+00:00LB, post last aug/Sep audusd carved out a distinct...LB, post last aug/Sep audusd carved out a distinct double bottom, only to be taken down further in jan. Not sure if this time will be diffAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40897398303917293482016-01-28T04:20:20.193+00:002016-01-28T04:20:20.193+00:00Someone else thinks the Aussie may have bottomed:
...Someone else thinks the Aussie may have bottomed:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.marctomarket.com/2016/01/grear-graphic-possible-head-and.html" rel="nofollow"> Inverted H&S on AUDUSD? </a><br /><br />This is definitely something to keep an eye on, especially for those of us who have been thinking about mining and metals but are not at present long those instruments.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49605722661641402932016-01-28T03:14:44.908+00:002016-01-28T03:14:44.908+00:00 Anonymous washedup said...
Bruce - glad the ... Anonymous washedup said...<br /><br /> Bruce - glad the move worked for you, but frankly equities are down because of what apple, that darling of retail-ville, did yesterday and today -<br /><br />...Granted. But Apple is not why they are down for the year.<br /><br />...Come on over to the darkside, Washed...sometimes the boy plunger was right...Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17936799106127313042016-01-28T02:59:04.600+00:002016-01-28T02:59:04.600+00:00POL and MM, you really think FX is just reacting t...POL and MM, you really think FX is just reacting to something here ? Perhaps on the day to day but I see a lot of the recent bigger trends as a result of FX, most specifically the USD. The higher dollar has exaggerated commodity moves by allowing countries like aud, cad etc to keep steady production bc local prices soften the blow. FXmoves have killed Em debt, and now FX is putting major pressure on trade weighted CNY. And I didn't even get to Japan or Europe. <br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72959650619860657512016-01-28T02:17:46.332+00:002016-01-28T02:17:46.332+00:00USDJPY and Spoos up o/n on reports of PBoC injecti...USDJPY and Spoos up o/n on reports of PBoC injecting liquidity once again. Spoos looking range-y again for now, maybe a couple of days chop between today's extremes of 1873 and 1917, but the path of least resistance may be upward now as vol continues to decline. We're happier being long Spoos than 10s at the moment, just as MM is happier being long AAPL.<br /><br />One of the puzzles for us is what happens when we do finally see USD reverse hard and create a tiny bit of reflation? Do EMs and commodities rally and carry all markets with them, as a rising tide lifts all boats? Or does unwind of USDJPY create a sell-off in Spoos and drag other equity markets down as well? Perhaps the place to be when the Buck stops is ... you know, precious metals, GDX, AUDUSD and the mining heavy indices like the ASX and FTSE? Will that be the trade of Q2 '16? <br /><br />The usual cyclicality dictates that precious metals and mining lead, then other commodities and energy follow, and then the remaining reflation trades (steepeners, financials, TIPS v nominal Treasuries) follow along in their wake. Not sure markets other than FFR are ready to accept the evidence of a softening US economy yet, but when they do the move down in USD will be sharp and swift.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41798481918041007442016-01-28T00:09:42.985+00:002016-01-28T00:09:42.985+00:00Maybe those Libor brokers or their bosses had frie...Maybe those Libor brokers or their bosses had friends higher up..cronies.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5028601061167855412016-01-27T23:41:55.418+00:002016-01-27T23:41:55.418+00:00Yes, pretty sad that no one nowadays will believe ...Yes, pretty sad that no one nowadays will believe the bleeding obvious until someone has written a paper on it. Of course he never caused the crash, <br /><br />On that point did you see that the Libor brokers have been let off, which leaves Tom Hayes in the interesting position of being put in prison for conspiring with no one.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27630145215504946132016-01-27T23:39:38.449+00:002016-01-27T23:39:38.449+00:00Remember this guy:
http://www.marketwatch.com/sto...Remember this guy:<br /><br />http://www.marketwatch.com/story/navinder-sarao-didnt-cause-the-flash-crash-study-finds-2016-01-27?dist=tbeforebellAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44811810660506278142016-01-27T23:29:10.151+00:002016-01-27T23:29:10.151+00:00Yes, was just having the conversation with someone...Yes, was just having the conversation with someone today about how FX is a third order asset class at the moment. That can change, obviously, but right now the big dollar is less interesting than it has been, and taking its cues from others rather than vice versa.<br /><br />Abee, my point re Apple was not to disparage it (I <i>am</i> long, FWIW), but merely to point out that its era of explosive secular growth has ended. There is absolutely nothing wrong with spitting out enormous volumes of cash, and on my time horizon I'd much rather own Apple than 10's at an identical yield and the former on a single digit PE.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2836785304027108352016-01-27T23:08:46.221+00:002016-01-27T23:08:46.221+00:00Abee., re watching FX for risk clues.
FX markets ...Abee., re watching FX for risk clues.<br /> FX markets are clueless for risk clues and just follow any current risk du jour asset market so if you follow them you are just following something else anyway. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88116649289320934892016-01-27T23:05:49.813+00:002016-01-27T23:05:49.813+00:00Re: AAPL, yes they are slowing down, but I would h...Re: AAPL, yes they are slowing down, but I would hardly put them in the MSFT malaise bucket just yet. They have enough cash and resources to do a lot of things and I would hardly call them old tech like CSCO, EMC, HP etc. Not saying you buy the stock ( I havent) but its hard to call the company expensive at 9x. MSFT and AAPL had their low P/E's in the past 5 years at 8.2 or so, FYI for value hunters. <br /><br />And in terms of new tech, FB beating with 50% revenue growth shows you what is working in this economy. Again, its a big index component so I'd be careful buying, but this isnt a company that is worried about China deflation. <br /><br />True most "normal" companies are missing the top line (nothing new, IMO) but wouldnt you expect that with a surging dollar and a manufacturing recession in most of the world? The fact that most industrial companies were still able to beat on earnings shows you actually how resilient big business is today. <br /><br />My big worry is more to Hippers point, if services are just delayed reacting to industry. Certainly a declining barometer of confidence, stock markets, dont help if they go lower. <br /><br />I've been more bullish than bearish and trying to figure out where I might be wrong. While I respect Gundlach and Dalio, I agree with MM, they seem to always be talking their book on rates. When I try to dig into most arguments to be bearish, the constant themes are China (and capital flight) and the debt super cycle has ended (fracking debt, high yield etc). There are lots of intelligent arguments for and against each issue but I think the main point is if the US Equity market makes new lows it could have a reflexive influence on sentiment and exaggerate moves. And while everyone is pretty bearish we need to get some solid positive "surprises" particularly on the business cycle/industrial cycle (ECSU on the Bloomby) to put some cold steel under the shorts for things to turn the other way<br /><br />Until then, I say watch FX for clues in terms of risk behaviourabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68454886202667050522016-01-27T22:54:18.102+00:002016-01-27T22:54:18.102+00:00Oh, actually I did that one as well.Oh, actually I did that one as well.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23861294974823471692016-01-27T22:42:46.937+00:002016-01-27T22:42:46.937+00:00Yes really was good
Only one Frank song on this b...Yes really was good <br />Only one Frank song on this blog .. http://macro-man.blogspot.co.uk/2011/10/thats-why-lady-is.html<br />But yours beats it .. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44766628580647460562016-01-27T22:37:34.789+00:002016-01-27T22:37:34.789+00:00Anon- FAN-tastic. Don't think I've ever ...Anon- FAN-tastic. Don't think I've ever done Frank, more the fool me, because your effort will be very very difficult to beat.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84822524905074412862016-01-27T22:31:44.796+00:002016-01-27T22:31:44.796+00:00Bruce - glad the move worked for you, but frankly ...Bruce - glad the move worked for you, but frankly equities are down because of what apple, that darling of retail-ville, did yesterday and today - I get the sense there is very little macro i.e. totally risk on/risk off interest in equities right now - all the fed did today with what I thought was a very neutral statement was get some intraday punters crossways and the dice ended on red instead of black - could have easily been the other way - I think spoos are currently at the mercy of what individual heavyweight stocks do - very rotational - if energy rallies and tech stops falling then spoos will go up as much as it takes to castrate John Q Short, whose clan has multiplied and blossomed in the last couple of weeks - on the other hand crude to 25 and apple to 80 say hello to a 1700 handle. <br />Will say the same thing I said 2 weeks ago - no point getting involved at 1880 - something stupid will happen - soon - I can feel it.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42577039110747407472016-01-27T22:28:22.142+00:002016-01-27T22:28:22.142+00:00MM has some real competition!MM has some real competition!Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29620648092230726962016-01-27T22:25:45.309+00:002016-01-27T22:25:45.309+00:00Anon . BravoAnon . BravoPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84358723443053575462016-01-27T22:24:02.775+00:002016-01-27T22:24:02.775+00:00“Ranges in the Night” from "Strangers In The ...“Ranges in the Night” from "Strangers In The Night" by Frank Sinatra:<br /><br />Ranges in the night, exchanges dancing<br />Bears put up a fight, what were the chances<br />we’d be saved by doves before the day was through ?<br /><br />Some hawks have retired, no more in-fighting<br />Statement changes glow with blue hi-lighting<br />But something in my chart told me it wasn’t true<br /><br />Ranges in the night<br />Both sides were equal, we stayed range-bound through the night <br />Up to the moment when the Squawk Box crew said “Go,” fiddling like Nero<br />Cramer’s mouth will dance away, a Fed-debasing rant -- Hooray!<br /><br />And SPY just took a dive, no more white feathers<br />“Swing low’s” back in sight, that bearish tether<br />This turned out so right – the Rangers win tonight !<br /><br />Scooby-doooby-doo, do-do-do-dee-da …Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73263874624700388572016-01-27T22:07:46.976+00:002016-01-27T22:07:46.976+00:00http://finance.yahoo.com/news/indexes-dragged-down...http://finance.yahoo.com/news/indexes-dragged-down-apple-oil-150246819.html<br /><br />"But some on Wall Street had hoped an even stronger indication that policymakers might scale back the pace of future interest rate hikes.<br /><br />"It sounds like they are unimpressed with what has happened in the markets, that it has been insufficient to change their plans. That's the takeaway and it's why the market is going down," said Stephen Massocca, Chief Investment Officer of Wedbush Equity Management LLC in San Francisco."<br /><br />...a taper tantrum because of a non-reversal? Petulant!!!Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14200463537775114302016-01-27T21:58:00.100+00:002016-01-27T21:58:00.100+00:00The Fed raises 3 more times in 2016
Liquidity pro...The Fed raises 3 more times in 2016<br /><br />Liquidity problems persist<br /><br />Some portfolio managers go off the deep end<br /><br />SDS manages its slow but persistent climb in 2016..<br /><br />BinT raises his stops at intervals...<br /><br /><br /><br />...Shooting fish in a barrel, as someone once said...<br /><br />(Lefty, Mr. Market had a tiff because groupthink expected a sign that QE was comin'...such a petulant child!)Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27418916648516984322016-01-27T21:49:26.338+00:002016-01-27T21:49:26.338+00:00@washedup 7:23. Skyguy is honored to have his pit...@washedup 7:23. Skyguy is honored to have his pithy throw-away simile picked-up, dusted off, and updated with some value added wit by washedup...Skyguyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07139541599828256142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42676565838366932522016-01-27T21:40:37.036+00:002016-01-27T21:40:37.036+00:00@LB ... Look, Chelsea probably wont be relegated t...@LB ... Look, Chelsea probably wont be relegated this season (we hope!), and Trump won't be president. Let's just agree on that ;). <br /><br />On another note, I do have some sympathy for MM's point about Gundlach and Dalio. I read Dalio's piece in the FT this week, and I have to say, it is all a bit too obvious. This doesn't mean that it isn't a good idea to fade the hawkish rate hike narrative mind. It sure does seem as if punters are very eager to test just how far down the rabbit hold Yellen is willing to watch Spoos go, before she starts crying foul play! <br /><br />Good points on falling vol and rallying oil. The "portfolio" has done relatively well in the past week which signals to me that the market is not in panic mode anymore. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71491678550794841162016-01-27T21:04:40.579+00:002016-01-27T21:04:40.579+00:00Well there goes that correlation ;) Dont think ma...Well there goes that correlation ;) Dont think markets were really expecting anything else, but clearly they were hoping for something different. Coreynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27707971826341320572016-01-27T20:33:24.927+00:002016-01-27T20:33:24.927+00:00taking 5mn off Balinese hammock holiday to mention...taking 5mn off Balinese hammock holiday to mention how constructive European equities are + oil<br /><br />if you try long equities i suggest Europe vs spoos - spoos tape clearly shows how much leverage/margin is still there to be messed around<br /><br />good luck and see you next weekNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.com