tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4305432235167842984..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: And so it begins....Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40481680980617563622008-09-30T13:37:00.000+01:002008-09-30T13:37:00.000+01:00Surely, MM, if banks and other institutions were t...Surely, MM, if banks and other institutions were throwing money and plastic at people over a decade the savings ratio would be bound to fall. Its the other end of the see-saw.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75365972080827112862008-09-03T12:42:00.000+01:002008-09-03T12:42:00.000+01:00Interesting observation in USDCNY.USDCNY is tradin...Interesting observation in USDCNY.<BR/><BR/>USDCNY is trading at 6.8450. Yet fair value for USDCNY is below 6.50.And yet again you are telling me that is on year's time USDCNY is going to be trading at 6.8100. This to me, is like telling me that EURUSD will no go above 1.4600 AT ANY POINT IN TIME FOR THE NEXT ONE YEAR. For if you examine the correlation between EURUSD and USDCNY 1yr NDF you will see that they are one and the same trade. <BR/><BR/>Just that the latter is fundamentally overvalued!<BR/><BR/>Having said this, I see now as short USDCNY as a relatively attractive trade with limited downside. Sure perhaps next week or the one after we see a continuation of this buying of USDCNY, but if your horizon is longer than that then you should be selling USDCNY. The upside I see as limitedAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91509374285425571642008-09-03T10:39:00.000+01:002008-09-03T10:39:00.000+01:00MM:https://gm.bankofny.com/Research/MorningUpdate/...MM:<BR/><BR/>https://gm.bankofny.com/Research/MorningUpdate/Article.aspx?Type=0&ContentManagerID=7610<BR/><BR/>and the chart comparing current GBP action with past suggests a possible near term bounce.gsm_73https://www.blogger.com/profile/14463269875250565829noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32702014063847859342008-09-03T07:10:00.000+01:002008-09-03T07:10:00.000+01:00The arm in arm action of eur and the chf might be ...The arm in arm action of eur and the chf might be one of the homerun pitches coming at us? Chf does not want to act like a funding currency and follows the eur tick for tick. Any thoughts, Macro?<BR/><BR/>Also, possible bounce for the gbp and the eur on Thursday after rates hold and a good time to fade the action?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55755000552828866672008-09-03T00:38:00.000+01:002008-09-03T00:38:00.000+01:00Some have adopted the armadillo strategy (roll up ...Some have adopted the armadillo strategy (roll up in a ball and only show armored plate to the world) to get through this period and some the Braveheart strategy (endure and never surrender.) It's hared to do either from a P&L perspective. However, it does seem the wrong time to parachute in with negative surprises.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5505042057668884962008-09-02T19:40:00.000+01:002008-09-02T19:40:00.000+01:00JL, having been on holiday and feeling crap when t...JL, having been on holiday and feeling crap when the Inflation Report came out, and with my book having been risked-up as it was, I have missed the boat on GBP. Ugh. NZD, as noted above, has been a classic case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. <BR/><BR/>Interesting comment from the Bronte guys. I think they simplify the world as if banks' only business were structured credit, which clearly it is not. There are an awful lot of franchise traders out there who make good money and think they are legends, but who find out that "the chair" is worth a lot (selling on your offer, buying on your bid, and seeing custy flow to lever off). UBS' John Costas comes to mind in that regard.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20616510283028618542008-09-02T18:41:00.000+01:002008-09-02T18:41:00.000+01:00Interesting comment on the position of HFs. In the...Interesting comment on the position of HFs. In the US, HF managers are the largest contributors to the Dem campaign. Nonetheless, the HF industry is in the crosshairs of the reformers-- read higher taxes on carried interests and more regulation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38943340405358126802008-09-02T18:28:00.000+01:002008-09-02T18:28:00.000+01:00While I agree with USD home-runs for the next year...While I agree with USD home-runs for the next year, I just wonder whether USD will be on its way to start giving up some of its gains in the v near future given such a steep and long rise. My concern level starts to rise as soon as the sentiment gets on to the one-way track.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82043589190893529862008-09-02T17:34:00.000+01:002008-09-02T17:34:00.000+01:00As Finbar Taggit consistently opines, HF are the n...As Finbar Taggit consistently opines, HF are the new trading desks, all the more so if regulatory arb becomes too difficult for the big banks.<BR/>This gives me a neat segue to ask you MM, and your readers, for any opinions on this recent piece from down under, I don't fully agree but its a stimulating perspective. http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2008/09/<BR/>explaining-brokers-part-iii.html<BR/>Have personally stuck with NZDJPY and GBPJPY, enjoying the ride so far, and couldn't quite believe the profligacy of Mrs Watanabe as sourced in that old Times article. Spread betting is the new-ish opiate of the masses, trade your way to that Fendi bag. Cheers, JLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1218737516552221572008-09-02T17:24:00.000+01:002008-09-02T17:24:00.000+01:00I share the views of MM and prior comments. Also, ...I share the views of MM and prior comments. Also, to make matters worse, the political answer on obht sides of the aisle to US financial industry woes is more regulation. Oh joy. Somewhere a new, 21st Century Glass Steagall act is being readied with a special section on trading, making sure that the compliance paperwork involved increases by a factor of 10x. Aargh..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69110792663726138312008-09-02T14:21:00.000+01:002008-09-02T14:21:00.000+01:00Another thing to add to everyone's 'to-watch list'...Another thing to add to everyone's 'to-watch list' ...the asian markets as a potential tell on the strength of christmas spending.<BR/><BR/>up or down, Q4 should see some explosive, perhaps historic, moves.<BR/><BR/>cheers all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3451092722620874012008-09-02T13:54:00.000+01:002008-09-02T13:54:00.000+01:00Anon, I hear ya. What's irritating, of course, is...Anon, I hear ya. What's irritating, of course, is that price action in stuff like the USD suggests that there are home runs there to be hit. The last 5 weeks, though, I feel like I've been facing CC Sabathia throwing golf balls while hitting with a wiffle ball bat.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32067856588359544642008-09-02T13:42:00.000+01:002008-09-02T13:42:00.000+01:00The equity model looks at earnings and growth tren...The equity model looks at earnings and growth trends, and includes an inflation term that puts earnings into a "real" context.<BR/><BR/>NZD has been my own personal Hades for the last 5 weeks. I've been uber-bearish and not made a bean because of the structures I've had on and my cack-handed gamma trading.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27963416220784094612008-09-02T13:40:00.000+01:002008-09-02T13:40:00.000+01:00MM- I share your thoughts about Sept. There have ...MM- I share your thoughts about Sept. There have always been two new years for me-- one in Sept ( start of school, post hols rededication, autumnal energizing) and one in Jan(calendar and tax year end and bonus payment-- back in the good ole days when there were bonuses.)In the US the seesaw economic news is becoming a foil for politicians : The economy is getting better! Is not! Is too! I diminish the dialogue a bit with this cartooning, but still report the gist of it. For everyman, the pay packet is lighter, necessaries costs much more, assets (RE and Investments) have shrunk in value and taxes have gone up, with more increases to follow. Things are tough out there. Professionally, it feels right to try for singles, not home runs.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13709694118408242562008-09-02T12:01:00.000+01:002008-09-02T12:01:00.000+01:00MMI trade the USD resurgence for two reasons.First...MM<BR/><BR/>I trade the USD resurgence for two reasons.<BR/>First I like to trade with the trend and this one looks quite clear to me<BR/>Secondly the theme of the past years has been that the US imports way to much. Although a world wide recession will put a strain on its exports, I do tend to put more weight on diminishing imports. It's easier to correct an imbalance by rebalancing what caused the imbalance. <BR/><BR/>geertAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5790038257975430952008-09-02T11:45:00.000+01:002008-09-02T11:45:00.000+01:00No action on NZD/JPY? It just hit your vacation a...No action on NZD/JPY? It just hit your vacation absence lows (and now a triple bottom low, going back to Aug '07). <BR/><BR/>I was a buyer at 74.00 just a moment earlier. I'm hoping Mrs. Watanabe isn't still too overweight in her kiwi holdings.Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14027164932168556575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59329588150761487222008-09-02T11:36:00.000+01:002008-09-02T11:36:00.000+01:00without disclosing your exact market equity valuat...without disclosing your exact market equity valuation model, what is it roughly rooted in (fed model inverse bond yield model, etc.)?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com