tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4299205634263011358..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: G7 Cold War. No clear sign.Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45949282628731200582013-02-20T15:09:46.685+00:002013-02-20T15:09:46.685+00:00HI it is a nice post my friend.
And I would like ...HI it is a nice post my friend.<br /><br />And I would like to invite you to add add your grate blog posts to www.myshouter.com, a visual social bookmarking platform ,and let more corud to find your grate posts.<br />Thank You Very much.I wish for your success !! Rashod Chamikarahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16206814653658151313noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15395236609000795872013-02-15T19:20:40.906+00:002013-02-15T19:20:40.906+00:00Yikes, nasty announcement by WMT. Bull market in ...Yikes, nasty announcement by WMT. Bull market in something. What it is I have no idea. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31714841753116617212013-02-14T19:36:58.942+00:002013-02-14T19:36:58.942+00:00Andy Xie on the strong dollar that he forecasts fo...Andy Xie on the strong dollar that he forecasts for 2013, and its consequences. He sees DX breaking above 82 in a few months. The section in which he discusses the BRICs, EM dollar-denominated debt and EM central banks is especially worth reading.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/the-consequences-of-a-strong-dollar/" rel="nofollow"> Strong Dollar - Andy Xie </a><br /><br />Note that he isn’t talking about a strong economy, or a strong recovery in the US. USD strength will result from the fact that USD will be among the less weak of world currencies this year as Europe and Japan are forced to easy money policies and the global slowdown retards the commodity currencies.<br /><br />To use the Japanese analogy, in the decades after the real estate bubble, the yen didn't fall during the years that JGB yields sank into the 1-2% range at the long end, it got stronger. If the US follows this model to some extent, then we can expect low Treasury yields for years but the dollar will be relatively strong. Of course it follows from the inverse SPX/USD relationship that a stronger dollar is not bullish for US equities for the rest of the year.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52619893141379249712013-02-14T17:48:47.342+00:002013-02-14T17:48:47.342+00:00Schatz at +18 today is already suggesting an ECB r...Schatz at +18 today is already suggesting an ECB rate cut is in our future. 2y German yields may now be retracing a large move from -8 up to +30 bps. A 50% fib retracement of that would lead us down to that area of resistance around 9-12 bps.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-14/german-bonds-are-little-changed-before-euro-area-gdp-data.html" rel="nofollow"> Schatz 0.18 </a><br /><br />Cor, guv, that's serious macro, innit?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36929989819535132772013-02-14T16:46:36.294+00:002013-02-14T16:46:36.294+00:00Whisper quiet trading the last few days. EURUSD ha...Whisper quiet trading the last few days. EURUSD has definitely turned south, and our beloved consensus risk barometer EURJPY may now be following suit. Lots and lots of JPY and Treasury shorts out there, so if a few people start to feel yennish it might upset the apple cart for a while.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72115470251401970942013-02-14T13:25:41.223+00:002013-02-14T13:25:41.223+00:00when all the macro crowd wants to get long equitie...when all the macro crowd wants to get long equities I get a little nervous. Its a bigger market than most, and retail is still slow to buy in. Add in valuations that only seem good on a relative basis and I get a little worried. <br /><br />We are on the 5th wave up here in the Spoo's. Can it go on longer, sure. But finding deals in this market is getting harder and paying 15x for a 5% nominal growth isnt my idea of a great investmentabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23538404548314319852013-02-14T11:20:16.682+00:002013-02-14T11:20:16.682+00:00C Says'
Moneyflow.Don't like being a selle...C Says'<br />Moneyflow.Don't like being a seller when it's expected to be flowing against me.Likewise earnings data.So for me to get interested in seeling the so called great rotation I wanted to run into the middle of the month and option expiry picking a time that has been more user friendly in the past.It probably won't hinder to have some Euro elections in front and the US sequestration crap.<br />Macro though credit spreads and utilities have been a good guide to topping signal for greater fool activity so watching them not for the dips and rallies ,but for a wider shaping of risk behaviour is on the list.<br />Loose monetary policy has worked well pushing people into risk.The question being though have we now seen the greater fools flushed in?<br />The next question is when does QE transmission no longer lead to a positive when fiscal policy goes contraction?<br />As for Europe still to early for buy and hold per se IMO. Profit taking is more likely to create worthwhile corrections (not dips) I would have thought.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58496898372412251932013-02-13T18:57:07.215+00:002013-02-13T18:57:07.215+00:00Gasoline price rising again for Joe Sixpack. The t...Gasoline price rising again for Joe Sixpack. The threshold for consumer slowdown used to be $3.80-4.00 but that was before the payroll tax change. That range may be lower now.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/2/13/gasoline-prices-keep-rising.html" rel="nofollow"> US Gas Prices Rising </a><br /><br />Consider the fact that Josephine Sixpack charged Christmas on the credit card, and you can see that the "gas tax" added to the payroll tax increase is probably going to limit consumer largesse in the US this winter.<br /><br />Of course it's not really a problem b/c of all the great stocks that the Sixpacks own*, they can always sell some of their shares of LNKD and PHM to buy gas, and then they can "like" the market on their FB page.<br /><br />Brent rising in tandem with $gaso is also a flashing red light for European economies, many of which are already under serious duress. <br /><br />Demand destruction dead ahead? We think so.<br /><br />* Irony.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68944362253553619152013-02-13T14:22:47.569+00:002013-02-13T14:22:47.569+00:00"Structurally long equities, hedged with stru..."Structurally long equities, hedged with structural commodity shorts."<br /><br />http://markdow.tumblr.com/day/2013/02/13Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com