tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4286798426170585529..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: It's all EM is it? You sure?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61904230339325150862014-02-06T01:42:12.569+00:002014-02-06T01:42:12.569+00:00The problem with the fragile 5 is that it's a ...The problem with the fragile 5 is that it's a very reflexive situation. If the markets decide they are ok, outflows slow down and the situation improves. Likewise the opposite way. Values are already tempting there, if you believe in reforms but generally on a PPP basis not cheap yet. So what do most ppl do, well they step aside and leave the problem to those who know better. Problem is fast money hf have only one goal, so can't really rely on them to be stabilizers in this situation. Not yet at least. <br /><br />But aside from those really involved in that space the question is contagion risk. ISM seemed to be more with weather. But the stock market itself is a leading indicator and influences PMIs. But generally I don't think problems in any of the 5 have the potential to de-rail the developed world. .....famous last words perhaps. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89571311855538768342014-02-05T18:26:47.452+00:002014-02-05T18:26:47.452+00:00Media jackasses are still actively pumping US equi...Media jackasses are still actively pumping US equities, while encouraging punters to flee the emerging markets as though they were all located inside reactor #1 at Fukushima.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41475036128205603802014-02-05T17:46:01.362+00:002014-02-05T17:46:01.362+00:001) Plenty disinflation news from company reports r...1) Plenty disinflation news from company reports recently (layoffs, problems hiking prices), 2) EM unrest/rebalancing disinflationary as well, 3) Fed tapering despite disinflation prompts doubts re: inflation target, and a related 4) markets may be discounting the end of QE3? (QE1 & QE2 "cold turkeys" sent stocks down by 15-20%). Cockadoodledoohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08658921138352027771noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47893145159562076842014-02-05T12:53:15.401+00:002014-02-05T12:53:15.401+00:00C Says
Indeed ,have we just seen inflationistas th...C Says<br />Indeed ,have we just seen inflationistas throw in the towel as to the expected outcome of monetary policy post 2008?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86333206056376255802014-02-05T12:38:37.619+00:002014-02-05T12:38:37.619+00:00C says
I don't suppose some people might have ...C says<br />I don't suppose some people might have simply woken up about 3 or 4 years too late to exactly what global rebalancing might mean for where growth rates might be going forward?<br />For example ,are some of our global tech leaders really growth drivers with high P/E's ,or are they becoming more like cash cows?<br />Is China still a double digit growth river ,or is it trending down to become closer and closer to a DM in terms of it's growth sustainability?<br />Did monetary policy succeed in recreating an inflationary world ,or does the data suggest the opposite?<br />Appears to me that at a very late juncture there are still a lot of people who simply failed to understand the implications for what exactly global rebalancing would mean for growth rates in this business cycle as opposed to those now behind us.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79466538961121551452014-02-05T12:12:39.286+00:002014-02-05T12:12:39.286+00:00I thought this a decent story...until it isn't...I thought this a decent story...until it isn't.<br /><br />http://video.ft.com/3151641403001/Too-early-for-US-bottom-fishing/MarketsAlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14381013196081166483noreply@blogger.com