tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4275615840798319655..comments2024-03-28T00:23:22.838+00:00Comments on Macro Man: What We LearnedMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66993717403423271312010-05-03T03:28:08.636+01:002010-05-03T03:28:08.636+01:00SPX been green the last 6 first sessions of a mont...SPX been green the last 6 first sessions of a month, and the may historical is very strong until 5/11<br /><br />bulls certainly need a stick save on the euro, and a discounting of this:<br /><br />China’s central bank said on Sunday it will raise the amount banks must hold in reserve for a third time this year, the latest move by Beijing to cool its booming economy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29814984169344075962010-05-03T03:23:26.345+01:002010-05-03T03:23:26.345+01:00Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. (CDE) is an american...Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. (CDE) is an american miner whose history had been to never make any money except for it's management...and then the CDE bolivia mine finally opened<br /><br />look for a short in a bolivia miner off this news!<br /><br />http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/7665947/Morales-seizes-Bolivian-assets-of-UK-listed-British-Rurelec.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78583940806780561792010-04-30T13:56:32.124+01:002010-04-30T13:56:32.124+01:00Inflow Argument Helps Risk Assets Travel Hopeful ...Inflow Argument Helps Risk Assets Travel Hopeful ----- The SP500 (large caps) is +3.2%, SP400 (Mid Caps) is +6.3%, and Russell 2000 (Small Caps) is +8.7% in the month of April, the majority of professionals benchmarked to these strategies have factually underperformed and net long exposure has been reduced. The call over the weekend by historians and various media outlets will be “Sell in May and Go Away”. Weekend Sovereign credit and US Regulatory risks are other professional arguments against end of or beginning of month inflows. Conversely, data, earnings and rate policy are supportive of retail inflows keeping real money in control and looking for higher prices. Japan is closed next week and Monday is a UK holiday, and with inflation related assets continuing uptrend (Gold, Reits, etc.) the risk becomes greater CTA participation with monthly confirmations and a sovereign relief rally. Today and Monday are about money flow and the extensions of trend, the argument of inflows over outflows is superior. Risk assets travel hopeful into job data next week with positive expectation, SPX 1200 is support.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25843600866135446482010-04-30T12:20:42.641+01:002010-04-30T12:20:42.641+01:00well at present it is clearly the value of cash as...well at present it is clearly the value of cash as risk assets have not been wiped out....but it's all a relative game so if everyone's cash is worth less and governments have more of it........Rosscohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18218092677103028057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70182375743421055942010-04-30T08:20:44.812+01:002010-04-30T08:20:44.812+01:00I think there is some merit to that Rossco but ult...I think there is some merit to that Rossco but ultimately in a credit contraction / crisis something has to get destroyed: the value of cash or the value of assets. Take your pick. There's no easy out for every single portfolio.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68633167837531867002010-04-30T04:26:14.695+01:002010-04-30T04:26:14.695+01:00@Richard, I tend to agree with you.
Faced with th...@Richard, I tend to agree with you.<br /><br />Faced with the prospects of not being able to pay themselves via taxation and not being able to fund their retirements with a reflation of risk assets, governments will just do whatever it takes. The "free market" is a idealogical construct.<br /><br />There isn't much point in indulging in a polemic about it and playing the percentages it would seem that moral hazard wins in the end.Rosscohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18218092677103028057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10630434002645814912010-04-30T00:31:30.685+01:002010-04-30T00:31:30.685+01:00I'm starting to form the opinion that financia...I'm starting to form the opinion that financial crises are not "real" crises. They can always be fixed by governments changing the rules - bailing out, relaxing accounting standards, printing money etc. This may irritate people who believe in a free market, and presumably does have serious economic consequences, but it does get the immediate crisis fixed.<br /><br />Examples of "real" crises that can't be fixed by government hand waving would be earthquakes, plaques, nuclear wars or conventional wars between major powers, meteor strikes etc.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05085439539465347207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80328994054257994532010-04-30T00:12:54.126+01:002010-04-30T00:12:54.126+01:00I'm puzzled about the theory that this massive...I'm puzzled about the theory that this massive bailout of Greece will somehow prevent the contagion spreading to the other PIIGS. How does that work?<br /><br />Given a choice between Hellenic jokers and banksters, I'd let them both go down.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05085439539465347207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8235506751518074162010-04-29T18:11:13.032+01:002010-04-29T18:11:13.032+01:00MM, viz some of the metals complex are you hearing...MM, viz some of the metals complex are you hearing similar stories of margin calls on those fabled pig farmers?Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21881666274138214242010-04-29T14:55:03.478+01:002010-04-29T14:55:03.478+01:00The ultimate Euro-crats rock and a hard place. Wh...The ultimate Euro-crats rock and a hard place. Who is more unpopular with your voters ... Hellenic jokers or banksters?<br />Holding pressers pretending you are going to help, and going on TV and blaming Hugh Hendry & the evil short sellers so far has not worked.Nichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15083151714732237616noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37628296700141322172010-04-29T14:44:11.231+01:002010-04-29T14:44:11.231+01:00After decades of propaganda and political elites d...After decades of propaganda and political elites discussing a "European Union", the concept still exists only on paper and not in the real world.<br /><br />The paper EU consists of countries whose economies rely on a strong stable currency (basically the northern continent) and economies that rely on currency depreciation and inflation to pay the bills (PIGS + UK).<br /><br />We can all argue the merits of each economic game plan, but whichever side of the fence you sit on -- the two economic systems simply cannot co-exist inside the same currency regime<br /><br />This "crisis" will continue until one of three things happen:<br />1) Germany (Netherlands, ...) adopts inflation and accepts a much lower standard of living<br />2) Greece (PIGS+UK) adopts a hard currency, accepts a lower standard of living, and slashes government payrolls<br />3) The Euro breaks up into pieces that actually share common economic policies in real life, not just on paperGrampshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15670832368070093858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2810591780316010102010-04-29T13:09:18.235+01:002010-04-29T13:09:18.235+01:00Jochum, that may be the case but if Argentina is a...Jochum, that may be the case but if Argentina is any guide a 50c haircut on $x is better than a 75c haircut on $2x.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75868682652807458682010-04-29T13:04:21.851+01:002010-04-29T13:04:21.851+01:00Unfortunately this German private citizen's ba...Unfortunately this German private citizen's bank and pension fund lent his money to these jokers, so molotov cocktails might not be the best way to get any of it back.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10858446423946884968noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12496955205455715692010-04-29T10:13:36.390+01:002010-04-29T10:13:36.390+01:00If I were a German private citizen, I'd get my...If I were a German private citizen, I'd get my molotov cocktails mixed at this point. NFW I'd pay for those Hellenic jokers. <br /><br />Note to all New Zealanders: I'm sure Skippy and I are on the same page if you guys ever blow up.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.com