tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4115415800886155515..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Caring about weak Chinese data is sooooo last monthMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59682710877064027422015-09-15T13:17:32.024+01:002015-09-15T13:17:32.024+01:00Surely, there must be a bit of a risk on rally if ...Surely, there must be a bit of a risk on rally if Yellen waits again. It seems too obvious, but that has been the pattern of the past and we haven't broken down enough to warrant being so bearish as to break based on a non rate hike. 2020-2050 seems like good value to look for short spoos post FOMC. boogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85281662243342149192015-09-15T10:22:31.033+01:002015-09-15T10:22:31.033+01:00European charts are literally hanging over a cliff...European charts are literally hanging over a cliff and a myriad of long-only friends are sweating this week they still have not trimmed their long exposureNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23075810850853145002015-09-14T23:52:15.578+01:002015-09-14T23:52:15.578+01:00http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$natgas&p=D&a...http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$natgas&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p31528294151rivernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79488324724905064002015-09-14T23:47:10.088+01:002015-09-14T23:47:10.088+01:00Small speculators have never been as net short Spo...Small speculators have never been as net short Spoos according to cftc report. Large short equities and long vix coming into fomc and triple witching. <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42203384342831724852015-09-14T23:12:47.729+01:002015-09-14T23:12:47.729+01:00anon - these congestion triangles are continuation...anon - these congestion triangles are continuations 2/3rd of the time - break of 1940 opens up pretty decent downside technically - its certainly possible the fed meeting creates that chance. <br />That said, my point, and one I think u agree with, is that the max pain move here is for the market to not go anywhere for a couple of weeks and just f@#k with a market thats paid through its nose for gamma. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87557965282990912302015-09-14T21:59:27.550+01:002015-09-14T21:59:27.550+01:00Actually Anon, it looks more like a rising wedge t...Actually Anon, it looks more like a rising wedge to me, which is a bearish (in this case) continuation pattern.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16739451844976026912015-09-14T21:30:54.418+01:002015-09-14T21:30:54.418+01:00As much as i'm yearning for a further washout ...As much as i'm yearning for a further washout (Spooz in the 1700s) I don't think we're going to get it. The Fed conference, JBTFDers and the integrity of the Chinese statistical office will keep us out of there for the rest of the year. My money's on establishing a pithy new range here.<br /><br /><br />I am no technical analyst (in fact i think it's total b/s), but I know a lot of money out there is "technically" minded - wouldn't the 'ascending triangle' on the daily SP chart suggest that we should have passed the point at which the pattern should have resolved to the upside? My TA 101 books tell me that these patterns resolve well before the apex, and Thursday is probs right on that point. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89079304021226270692015-09-14T17:44:04.038+01:002015-09-14T17:44:04.038+01:00MM - nice post as usual - and with reference to:
&...MM - nice post as usual - and with reference to:<br />" More strategically, despite the bullish readings from his model he remains neutral at best; another 10-15% washout will make it a lot easier to be constructive."<br />I get a strong sense that is THE consensus at this point among puntville denizens - needless to say, consensus on a trading plan is quite different from consensus on a trading position, but it does make one wonder in what material way events will make people deviate from this script n the coming days. It would be comical, for example, if equities just calmly settled down into a new trading range around 1950 for much longer than proud VIX owners at 27-30 could digest!washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77734147154126989032015-09-14T14:57:52.810+01:002015-09-14T14:57:52.810+01:00Fitch: Fed Lift-off Matters for Emerging Markets a...Fitch: Fed Lift-off Matters for Emerging Markets as EM debt has risen by $2.9trn since 2008<br /><br />Just 2.9 trillion: Well, get to work. Let's double it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62832435765137031262015-09-14T13:34:14.037+01:002015-09-14T13:34:14.037+01:002015.75 (October 1, 2015) marks the beginning of a...2015.75 (October 1, 2015) marks the beginning of another trend according to Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model model.<br /><br />2007.15 (February 27, 2007) was a major top in financial markets in Martin Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model. The date was set back in 1985. 27, 2007<br /><br />Shanghai stock index plunged 8.8%<br /><br />February 28, 2007<br /><br />DOW drops 400 points, India down 4%, Singapore minus 3.7%, Japan down 2.9%, South Korea minus 2.6%, and Hong Kong down 2.5%.<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43929268656986921992015-09-14T12:49:33.442+01:002015-09-14T12:49:33.442+01:00markets will react much worse if Yellenco kick the...markets will react much worse if Yellenco kick the hiking can down the road (December)<br /><br />and markets won't be happy if they get the 25 bips hike this week<br /><br />either way the case for immediate upside on equities - besides expiry technicals - dumbfounds me. i see an obvious spooz retest under 1850 soon enough and whether US and Europe more especially will print a higher low will be a big, big tell the weeks after<br /><br />for as it is, noone can tell where equities will trade by year end we're in uncertainty land and that itself bodes for more weakness. You will need real real fear for this market to bottom and we have not seen this yet; any grind up from here would paint a very fragile technical picture<br /><br />Mr T if you are reading i do not need the end of the world for my view to play out unfortunately i am being very pragmatic, i wish i could be optimistic, but that 6 year house of cards is what it is we are left with super fragile markets for the time beingNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38778615106433050822015-09-14T11:32:16.705+01:002015-09-14T11:32:16.705+01:00couldn't you effectively do the "hawkish&...couldn't you effectively do the "hawkish" hold scenario by announcing that there will be a press conference following the Oct meeting? That would serve to put the mkt on notice that a hike is coming by year-end...CJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83437003286166955422015-09-14T10:28:39.980+01:002015-09-14T10:28:39.980+01:00"...unless the Fed more or less explicitly pr..."<i>...unless the Fed more or less explicitly promises a hike by year end, which seems inconceivable.</i>"<br /><br />Why would this be inconceivable? I would think it's a rather elegant solution to the "can they really hike if markets aren't pricing a hike?" dilemma you mentioned in another post recently. Yes, there is the data-dependency mantra of course, so they cannot make an outright commitment to hike in Dec -- but they could still telegraph that they strongly expect to do so, with the caveat that a serious deterioration in the data might call for a change of plan.<br /><br />This scenario is also one of the few ways for Yellen to build consensus in a meeting where there will be particularly strongly held views both on the hawkish and dovish sides, each of which can plausibly claim support in the data. (The other would be to hike now while pretty aggressively guiding down expectations for the future fed funds path through the dot plot, but I doubt this is what they'll go for as I think Yellen herself is in the Dec camp.)methinksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57973951532357634642015-09-14T07:43:44.112+01:002015-09-14T07:43:44.112+01:00Dmoes your model stay bullish if there's anoth...Dmoes your model stay bullish if there's another 10/15% washout? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com