tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3898347142247596006..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The electionsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69509039082028008272014-11-06T06:59:29.145+00:002014-11-06T06:59:29.145+00:00+1 LB
"We strive to inform, Polemic. When we...+1 LB<br /><br />"We strive to inform, Polemic. When we cannot inform, we must amuse... :-)"<br /><br />He he<br /><br />I agree on Russia and Ukraine incidentally; mutually assured destruction is highly unlikely. <br /><br />Claus <br />CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50305505673487517352014-11-06T03:17:26.546+00:002014-11-06T03:17:26.546+00:00Pickles are only the second most important export ...Pickles are only the second most important export industry in the Ukraine, after bombastic women<br /><br />Legend has it Catherine the Great acknowledged the Ukraine as a powerful commercial hub but lamented the uglyness of its people<br /><br />so she decided to send a few coaches full of gorgeous Rus to pimp up the gene pool. Pinochet repeated that same old trick in Easter islandNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69769474565540317112014-11-06T02:48:28.728+00:002014-11-06T02:48:28.728+00:00We strive to inform, Polemic. When we cannot infor...We strive to inform, Polemic. When we cannot inform, we must amuse... :-)Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79258879127583801862014-11-05T21:31:27.165+00:002014-11-05T21:31:27.165+00:00"hissy fit over the control of three Ukrainia..."hissy fit over the control of three Ukrainian pickle factories."<br /><br />One day LB I hope you become the modern day Homer. Trojan wars being fought over a lady have nothing on LBs epic about the war that was fought because of a hissy fit over the control of three Ukrainian pickle factories. Class stuff my friend. Still giggling. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70886210770678290892014-11-05T21:26:08.552+00:002014-11-05T21:26:08.552+00:00A new Cold War makes no sense for anyone at all.
...A new Cold War makes no sense for anyone at all. <br /><br />We think everyone will have to make nice and do a bit of international kissy-face in order to keep Europe (and Russia) in business this Winter. Not worth risking a deep recession in a hissy fit over the control of three Ukrainian pickle factories. Russia will keep control of Crimea and a few odds and ends, though. Possession is nine tenths of the law, after all.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50002532857003915072014-11-05T20:51:43.819+00:002014-11-05T20:51:43.819+00:00Question is at what point investors are willing to...Question is at what point investors are willing to go back int russian stock market? I think it's only a matter of time (not long) b4 Mr P will start acting nice again. Russia are so much more dependent on Eu n the US than the other way around. Sanctions are biting along w the cheaper crude. /SAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40139365115572352362014-11-05T19:52:39.978+00:002014-11-05T19:52:39.978+00:00MM's gap 4 was filled yesterday, almost perfec...MM's gap 4 was filled yesterday, almost perfectly to ~SPY 200 (IWM 115). The next one down (MM's gap 3) is at 196 (IWM 111).. just sayin'...Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62698513756010448042014-11-05T19:46:22.909+00:002014-11-05T19:46:22.909+00:00The MM Comment-o-Meter is falling gradually, along...The MM Comment-o-Meter is falling gradually, along with the VIX...Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26855546715519585092014-11-05T18:33:25.798+00:002014-11-05T18:33:25.798+00:00USDRUB 45. Before anyone else chimes in. The RSX ...USDRUB 45. Before anyone else chimes in. The RSX is actually green on the day.... nobody left to sell.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36035968988948131052014-11-05T18:22:45.833+00:002014-11-05T18:22:45.833+00:00An interesting tidbit from the US Shale oil patch....An interesting tidbit from the US Shale oil patch. WPX - one of the more under-the-radar names had earnings yesterday. On the call today they said that in their fields they will see 50% IRR's @ $80 oil - substantially higher than at least this punter was expecting. Driving this is really amazing improvements in drilling costs and times (avg drill time from 39 days to 13 in the last year). It's worth noting that one of the things US shale has going for it is a nice technological / innovation curve. Middle east costs are pretty much static.<br /><br />I think the takeaway here is that $80 oil (or even potentially much lower) may not crush US shale production the way many are expecting.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.wpxenergy.com/media/WPX_3Q_2014_EARNINGS_SLIDES.pdf" rel="nofollow">Call Slides</a><br />Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27151695998176081832014-11-05T17:53:51.233+00:002014-11-05T17:53:51.233+00:00Looks like a message to the House of Saud. Looks like a message to the House of Saud. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67242852724772753102014-11-05T17:12:08.714+00:002014-11-05T17:12:08.714+00:00Paul Singer's Elliott Management wrote in a th...Paul Singer's Elliott Management wrote in a third-quarter letter to investors: <br /><br />“Nobody can predict how long governments can get away with fake growth, fake money, fake jobs, fake financial stability, fake inflation numbers and fake income growth. When confidence is lost, that loss can be severe, sudden and simultaneous across a number of markets and sectors.”<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-04/singer-s-elliott-says-optimism-on-u-s-growth-unwarranted.htmlGusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39860093625694876482014-11-05T17:10:42.052+00:002014-11-05T17:10:42.052+00:00So we have the predictable knee-jerk reaction to t...So we have the predictable knee-jerk reaction to the elections, namely that elephants are good for the market and good for the $. For a day or two.<br /><br />So far, so good, we have almost kissed USDJPY 115, which was most punters' first target, but EURUSD is holding up fairly well. Bucky must be a little bit knackered after leaping 200 pips in the last week, and he's likely to need a nap now into the weekend. <br /><br />EUR bounce is likely tomorrow as Dr Aghi can hardly pull a BoJ. His bazooka is still really more of a water pistol.<br /><br />NFP lottery guess? 250 for Abee. Well, we usually take "the under" as regular readers are aware, and this time we are going to go for 215k. <br /><br />As for Mr Market, we think he will Sell The News on Friday, whatever it is, hot, cold or Goldilocks, and take some porridge off the table. As for rates, that's anyone's guess here, stuck in a range, don't want to get involved at this point.<br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59569235577372109552014-11-05T16:27:16.354+00:002014-11-05T16:27:16.354+00:00Rydex bull assets hit a new 7 yr high yesterdayRydex bull assets hit a new 7 yr high yesterdayAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70194970428824693262014-11-05T14:07:33.961+00:002014-11-05T14:07:33.961+00:00C says at 1.16
Good points C always like your inp...C says at 1.16<br /><br />Good points C always like your input( by the way pls stick with C says - its a MM tradition ) . At some stage external factors are going to weigh on markets. However,<br /><br />Saudi has already squared Isil by funding Egyptian troop deployments along their frontiers. US troops are already in Jordan.<br /><br />Putin has to move in the next couple of weeks before the sea lines to Crimea become ice hazarded, Land access ie Mariuopol becomes a necessity. Will a low oil price hurt in this timeframe. Will more Ukraine woes unsettle a market waiting for Draghi magic ?<br /><br />As someone suggested earlier its the strong greenback that may start to let air out of Spoos. Q3 earnings are set to be bad enough but Q4 at 1.20 to the € ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16802451939205639212014-11-05T14:02:23.724+00:002014-11-05T14:02:23.724+00:00NFP lottery guess? 250 for me
Hoping Dec15 EuroDo...NFP lottery guess? 250 for me<br /><br />Hoping Dec15 EuroDollar plays the range, to the downside ;-)abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45009658985200377782014-11-05T13:16:25.506+00:002014-11-05T13:16:25.506+00:00C Says (kiss),
I was taken the otrher day by the c...C Says (kiss),<br />I was taken the otrher day by the comment "what if the Fed didn't have your back". Speculative musing ;Putin shows his muscle meanwhile Saudi have trouble in their backyard with Isil; this at a time where this US admin has been basically withdrawing from it's Mid East peacekeeping role;So what if hushed conversation US to Saudi goes you help us bring Putin to his knees and we help you with Isil. In which case US foreign policy currently trumps the Feds desire to see a weaker dollar. Japan simply adds kerosene to the already stoked fire. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40716019114029947152014-11-05T10:06:59.517+00:002014-11-05T10:06:59.517+00:00Good as gold:
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/techni...Good as gold:<br /><br />http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/elliott_wave/gold/2014/11/04/eliottWaves_gold.htmlRivernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78504030077778809572014-11-05T00:54:04.125+00:002014-11-05T00:54:04.125+00:00Crude:
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/ell...Crude:<br /><br />http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/elliott_wave/oil/2014/11/04/eliottWaves_oil.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15885605511079606542014-11-04T19:56:44.172+00:002014-11-04T19:56:44.172+00:00love the "first time since ( wait for it) apr...love the "first time since ( wait for it) april!<br /><br />what a farcerohinihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07384770668436585775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83164401895928286212014-11-04T19:28:18.120+00:002014-11-04T19:28:18.120+00:00Japan's September GDP down for first time sinc...Japan's September GDP down for first time since AprilAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25196657798357865502014-11-04T18:56:07.385+00:002014-11-04T18:56:07.385+00:00Europe bets are all secondary on what happens to E...Europe bets are all secondary on what happens to EURUSD at the moment. Overwhelming consensus is we see 1,2000-1,2100 area before we see 1,2900. Not sure if that is correct. Dr Aghi really just can't QEase freely like the other CBs, so EURUSD (and especially EURJPY) might just drift upwards and carry STOXX along.<br /><br />As for Spoos, it looks like we are still in a USDJPY carry environment, so correlations between USD and Spoos are predicted to be +ve if anything, into EoY. If and when that breaks, watch out.<br /><br />The issue as I see it for Spoos is this: Let's say Harry Hedgie and Priscilla Performance Chase do indeed manage to stage a Santa rally and chase the Spoos up all the way to the open at New Year. OK, now we can already see that the Q4 earnings for US exporters and banks are not going to be very clever, and those corrections are usually made by Mr Market before the meat of the earnings season arrives. So we might have a very sticky start indeed to 2015. Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23623195665547659702014-11-04T17:47:51.294+00:002014-11-04T17:47:51.294+00:00Spoo's are all about rotation. thats why activ...Spoo's are all about rotation. thats why active managers cant beat it this year. so hard to figure out what will be the winner from month to month. Europe yeah its lagging, and maybe you make money shorting it. I still think its higher in 2 years time, not lower. If I'm wrong then I am probably really wrong. <br /><br />But the big question is OIL. Does it now buy the fed some more time. Does EM explode. Do MLP names take another dive lower at some point. Or is it all just good news for consumers. I happen to think the consequences are much worse. 'Brutal' moves in any asset tend to expose those swimming naked. Canada oil sands, Russia, Venny even the great hope of argentina is based a lot on oil. watch this space abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31163503126280625672014-11-04T17:36:14.152+00:002014-11-04T17:36:14.152+00:00JPM reckons Fed QE created large wealth effects of...JPM reckons Fed QE created large wealth effects of around $9tr in US equities + $2.5tr in US real estate through yield compression aloneAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17515483785335547822014-11-04T17:20:31.626+00:002014-11-04T17:20:31.626+00:00nico/lb any thts on correlation between spoos and ...nico/lb any thts on correlation between spoos and usd going forward, say into year end? I am assuming zero to slightly +ve at this point, but welcome counterargumentsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com