tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post378344757048340307..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Qu'est Châteaux Eurobolleaux 2011?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16896061756232957282011-06-27T10:52:04.646+01:002011-06-27T10:52:04.646+01:00Polemic,
Apologies for not seeing your note earli...Polemic,<br /><br />Apologies for not seeing your note earlier. I've been a little tied up. You'll have to tell me how to email you, because it's not obvious to me (and I'm the sort of person who needs very, very obvious.)<br /><br />Alternatively you can email me. First name dot surname at dowjones dot com.<br /><br />alenAlen Mattichnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5676376644363624422011-06-24T21:12:05.213+01:002011-06-24T21:12:05.213+01:00@ Tyler.
Agree on gold, so does silver.@ Tyler.<br /><br />Agree on gold, so does silver.WellRednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55875621560974881372011-06-24T13:41:48.602+01:002011-06-24T13:41:48.602+01:00Cheers LB. Unfortunately for you...I agree.
Da...Cheers LB. Unfortunately for you...I agree. <br /><br />Data won't continue to surprise on the downside forever. uptrend is still intact, signs of overly bearish sentiment (despite a modest ~8% pullback), CESIUSD bottoming. <br /><br />The world is watching 1250 and everybody gets scared beneath those levels. Recall last year around this time everybody was watching 1050 and there was a washout/bear trap. A similar type of move gets you to around 1200. At that point the sky would be falling in the heads of traders and investors. <br /><br />what say ye, TMM? still looking to short regardless? <br /><br />Gold looks vulnerable.Tylerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265862490530746096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54906074369282321362011-06-24T12:26:17.133+01:002011-06-24T12:26:17.133+01:00Hans Gruber: I thought I told all of you, I want r...Hans Gruber: I thought I told all of you, I want radio silence until further... <br />John McClane: Ooooh, I'm very sorry Hans. I didn't get that message. Maybe you should've put it on the bulletin board. I figured since I've waxed Tony and Marco and his friend here, I figured you and Karl and Franco might be a little lonely, so I wanted to give you a call.<br /><br />Trichet: I thought I told all of you, I want radio silence until further... <br />Juncker: Ooooh, I'm very sorry Trichet. I didn't get that message. Maybe you should've put it on the bulletin board. I figured since I've waxed Greece and Ireland, I figured portugal and spain might be a little lonely, so I wanted to give you a call.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65168882691037391002011-06-24T02:45:56.488+01:002011-06-24T02:45:56.488+01:00"Chinese Premier declares inflation victory&q..."Chinese Premier declares inflation victory" - ft.com<br /><br />So risk on for the H2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27812829844805885762011-06-23T17:26:28.453+01:002011-06-23T17:26:28.453+01:00Alen, re your suggestion ..hmmm - could you email ...Alen, re your suggestion ..hmmm - could you email me please?<br /><br />Cheers <br />PolemicPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17651944287073095102011-06-23T16:38:34.142+01:002011-06-23T16:38:34.142+01:00EWJ is well above the post-quake lows and is in th...EWJ is well above the post-quake lows and is in the late stages of completing a massive declining wedge. Japanese small caps have bounced back even more strongly. An upward breakout would hardly be surprising, especially if it transpires that Honda and Toyota actually did make a car or two.<br /><br />In the US, yes, I think that SPX 1250 is a reasonably good floor for this market for the time being. Not sure about the Fed, but a break below 1250 would certainly scare me. As long as GDP print tomorrow exceeds the yield on the 5y, I think Armegeddon will be avoided. At FVX = 1.45%, I'm not too concerned. I don't think this is 2008.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53656463204322990362011-06-23T16:31:22.061+01:002011-06-23T16:31:22.061+01:00Yeah, after we price a dismal July 1st data releas...Yeah, after we price a dismal July 1st data release, there will be positive surprise on equity earnings I believe. <br /><br />All things come back to oil and inflation. Saudi's increasing production plus DM reserve release are all designed to bring down inflation for a few months. Then a stage for more QE will be set up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71154040938091604892011-06-23T15:59:16.153+01:002011-06-23T15:59:16.153+01:00Agreed LB, the post quake lows have not yet been b...Agreed LB, the post quake lows have not yet been breached and this means the "buy the dip" put is intact. Realistically, in order for the Fed to get really scared we would need a move to below 1250 on the SPY. <br /><br />At the moment it is all just sideways, volatile yes, but sideways in the end. <br /><br />I am still long EWJ which also just seems to be poodling along with no direction. But I am constructive for H0211. I am thinking on Dr. Copper as well since with those very, very low SHFE inventories anything less than a completely shutdown in China will see imports getting back on stream. <br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88672596486242272712011-06-23T15:00:37.940+01:002011-06-23T15:00:37.940+01:00We sort of do have a forum, Alen. Claus and LB jus...We sort of do have a forum, Alen. Claus and LB just bang on here and try to be provocative until someone else comments or TMM lobs up a new post.<br /><br />Today's action resembles the deep flushing sound that this market needed, especially in the commodity sector. There probably isn't that much wrong with the US economy that a 5% drop in gasoline prices can't help just a little bit. It's like having a temporary tax removed. Obviously, it was kind of BB to tax everyone on behalf of the oil companies and speculative community.<br /><br />Once energy stocks and financials have received another flogging, we think morale will improve, already feeling a lot more constructive on US equities for Q3.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55079714964831136612011-06-23T14:30:56.288+01:002011-06-23T14:30:56.288+01:00Can I suggest to the very clever folks at Macro Ma...Can I suggest to the very clever folks at Macro Man that you set up a forum on your home page allowing readers to discuss what's happening in the market even when you haven't been posting?<br /><br />Clearly, most of the goodness on this site comes from the blog posts, but the readers comments add that je ne sais quoi. A running forum (lightly moderated) run in parallel with the postings might attract even more loyalty.Alen Mattichnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3448967510776887072011-06-22T14:16:37.561+01:002011-06-22T14:16:37.561+01:00If China experiences a full-blown credit crunch it...If China experiences a full-blown credit crunch it will certainly take our minds off Ch. Eurobolleaux:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-22/money-market-rate-in-china-advances-to-three-year-high-as-banks-hoard-cash.html" rel="nofollow"> SHIBOR Increasing </a><br /><br />Asian contagion, redux, anyone? It seems like there are any number of catalysts for a stronger dollar out there, including oddly enough, the potential non-appearance of a recession in the US.<br /><br />The simple pair trade call of the year was probably TMM's Long DMs:Short EMs. Still delivering alpha.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79668161460590622762011-06-22T13:03:42.062+01:002011-06-22T13:03:42.062+01:00Great post and good to see you back on the macro s...Great post and good to see you back on the macro stuff.<br /><br />The fx market may finally get some fear if they sniff out a European qe by stealth. <br /><br />Qe though seems like a train coming down a hill, once you start and give marginal holders of bonds liquidity to sell into, how do you ever turn It off ? <br /><br />The bearded illusionist has a massive problem IMO, he's taken out all the longs at the highs and now they are unlikely to help him out on the way down. <br /><br />It was a much clearer picture before the central bankers all got a turn at the punchbowl themselvesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88614189860728410992011-06-22T04:47:34.565+01:002011-06-22T04:47:34.565+01:00If we think it will mimic the effect of QE plus na...If we think it will mimic the effect of QE plus nationalization of the mortgage debt in USA I wonder if short bunds long Italy or some similar play on convergence of risk premia would make sense?<br /><br />The short eurusd is just as much a trade on 'risk off' generally and doesn't depend solely on the acrobatics of ecb.<br />Of course I could be way wrong!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23384791093579807072011-06-22T04:11:59.989+01:002011-06-22T04:11:59.989+01:00short eur seems too easy, especially when the '...short eur seems too easy, especially when the 'QE' at hand is also subsidized via China. That kind of ponzi squared would make even sir Charles blush...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25542602082290849742011-06-22T04:03:19.683+01:002011-06-22T04:03:19.683+01:00For me the trade - and I'm deep into it - is s...For me the trade - and I'm deep into it - is short eurusd...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89704649282029705252011-06-22T02:04:00.677+01:002011-06-22T02:04:00.677+01:00How are TMM positioned (or at least directionally ...How are TMM positioned (or at least directionally inclined) in the euro-dollar, if at all?Macro Musingshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01120235319990009648noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58939842169467606612011-06-22T00:12:35.096+01:002011-06-22T00:12:35.096+01:00As some other poor turd called Richard once said, ...As some other poor turd called Richard once said, "now is the winter of our discontent."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71989279034511390622011-06-21T21:25:27.426+01:002011-06-21T21:25:27.426+01:00great post ... and the trade is?great post ... and the trade is?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17771111295966307702011-06-21T20:35:38.691+01:002011-06-21T20:35:38.691+01:00I knew what you meant. In fact they practically ar...I knew what you meant. In fact they practically are unelected, at least in the UK. Quel référendum?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86501179820302945602011-06-21T19:54:00.107+01:002011-06-21T19:54:00.107+01:00err yes sorry ,, the unelected lot ( commisioners)...err yes sorry ,, the unelected lot ( commisioners). Not the elected lot who run up expense accounts that would make a greek finance minister blush.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23984876700518193222011-06-21T19:33:22.496+01:002011-06-21T19:33:22.496+01:00hmm.. unelected? you mean the commission i guesshmm.. unelected? you mean the commission i guessAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8844090809181634022011-06-21T17:43:33.798+01:002011-06-21T17:43:33.798+01:00But not the bund longs... yet.But not the bund longs... yet.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62707193873362782132011-06-21T16:38:04.768+01:002011-06-21T16:38:04.768+01:00Nothing like a spot of rémuage and dégorgement, no...Nothing like a spot of rémuage and dégorgement, no doubt down in the caves of Château Eurobolleaux™.<br /><br />Mr Market seems to be inhaling the bubbles already, even before the cork has been popped, TMM. <br /><br />Japan showing signs of life on auto maker hiring reports, perhaps everyone in Tokyo isn't actually glowing in the dark yet, after all.<br /><br />Cold Steel™ visiting US equity shorts.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.com