tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3681173528442889539..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Translation of the G8 G7 Statement on Ukraine.Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84629281390930130722014-03-10T22:05:15.949+00:002014-03-10T22:05:15.949+00:00Yes,talking about the Property market and the Glob...Yes,talking about the Property market and the Global sphere, be that I've metamorphosed into a ultra time frame trader since mid last year. Maybe you can see the ending already?...seriously. Real estate and Casino markets have been banging it out consistently harder the last 12 months, and for me these sector players seemed to think the show can go on forever. Yes , I do think the market is overdone, hard! but there's no way I'm stepping in front of it. But what I will do is invite some of my more culturally inclined friends around ( the goths,grunges,punters,hippies,cowboys,artists-philosophers-you get the idea) grab the popcorn and sit back and enjoy the display of watching decades of intangible investments strewn across the toilet floor in the name of being able to sit back and collect annual annuities off the one arm bandits.<br /><br />Ps..Popcorn taste good, and the company couldn't be better!amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65165121817272048032014-03-10T17:43:08.899+00:002014-03-10T17:43:08.899+00:00C Says
No boot filling here. I'm interested in...C Says<br />No boot filling here. I'm interested in where this goes ,but that's future tense.<br />Problem is I am topdown man. I see US fiscal policy tighter (nevermind monetary policy which I think is delusional anyway) along with China trying to squeeze it's credit cycle back into a box not labelled 'Pandora'.<br />I think risk globally owes me one real risk puke out of the US before I am willing to think that cheap is not going to be going cheaper. The theory is simple, if US equity revalues then every single equity market in the world will follow it. because this time won't be different.<br />There are countries like the UK where opinion seems optimistic ,but again I just think people are not joining up the dots. What we've got here is either export lead and subject to a coldwind ,or hopelessly concentrated in property where the limitations are quite obvious one's.<br />Indeed when it comes to export models we're in an everyman for himself world that doesn't even pretend to have a global approach any longer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89552108026859627312014-03-10T16:38:42.162+00:002014-03-10T16:38:42.162+00:00Interesting stuff, Skippy. We did fill our boots o...Interesting stuff, Skippy. We did fill our boots once more last week with Gazprom, and have an eye on the Revulsion Meter at all times. Speaking of which....<br /><br />Currently eyeing Brazil after two plunges in Dr Copper have resulted in back to back woodshed trips for Brazilian equities. Avid macro watchers might be surprised to learn that Brazilian govies 10s, are +12%, while Greek are 6.8% and Spain 3.3%. Brazil as risky as Greece and Spain combined? Shurely, shome market ineffishiency? VALE, EBR and CIG yield all quite attractive here, surely even PBR will not decline in price in perpetuity...?<br /><br />But the real attraction of Brazil in general is that it might now be standing on the threshold of two decades of mild disinflation that would be a dream environment for investors, like buying US Treasuries or equities in 1982?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54430974708229122642014-03-10T13:28:44.398+00:002014-03-10T13:28:44.398+00:00Just to add, Blog still accessible from Russia (un...Just to add, Blog still accessible from Russia (unlike China)Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52618338646794468782014-03-10T13:20:36.557+00:002014-03-10T13:20:36.557+00:00Skippy has been on the ground in Russia this week....Skippy has been on the ground in Russia this week. Crimea is gone as far as the alpha dog (Putin) is concerned. However, it is not clear whether he wants the rest of Ukraine just yet. <br /><br />Skip senses deep revulsion on Russian equities locally, not just globally. On the weekend before last, money changers were not changing hard currency - although it was still available in most ATMs. While the CB has decent reserves, that contributed to the rate decision last week. Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35818778705473631832014-03-10T12:57:21.510+00:002014-03-10T12:57:21.510+00:00Agree. Russian assets worth looking at on the days...Agree. Russian assets worth looking at on the days of big dumps for the time being. The point on Gazprom is that if you fill 50% of the natural gas demand of Eastern Europe you are going to be in decent shape.<br /><br />Brazil also cheap, can't get a lot cheaper.... seems to be dumped every time we get bad news from China.<br /><br />China, oddly enough, still not cheap, probably going to get a lot cheaper one day, maybe this cycle, but maybe not until further down the road.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54239573242430680052014-03-08T08:45:12.225+00:002014-03-08T08:45:12.225+00:00C Says,
LB, looks like the puntariat still like ch...C Says,<br />LB, looks like the puntariat still like cheap could be cheaper on Russia.<br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-07/putin-s-push-shorted-in-etf-market-as-cheap-get-cheaper.html<br /><br />On a rough and ready take it would look likely that with that kind of interest we're going to see some wide swings in front of us where covering meets bottom feeding.<br />For the future this could develop into something really interesting on a fundamental value basis. The no rush, pick up a bit as we go as that volatility ultimately dissipates.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80642259507239324322014-03-07T15:12:38.074+00:002014-03-07T15:12:38.074+00:00FED to Mr Market:
"OK, so QE didn't wor...FED to Mr Market: <br /><br />"OK, so QE didn't work. You said it wouldn't, b/c there's no aggregate demand. The jobs market still s*cks giant donkey d*ck. But we made our constituency happy with free money, so Eat Me. But we are still going to Taper, b/c we said we were going to, when our QE policy worked. Which it has. Sort of. So, to our buddies, we are f**king Tapering, but we aren't hiking for ages, b/c the economy does still s*ck giant donkey d*ck. But as the MBS and Ts mature and run off, our balance sheet is going to contract slowly, so don't get left holding the bag with those small caps, sell them now to some d*ckhead who doesn't know how the system works."Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49835596976021478002014-03-07T15:02:30.806+00:002014-03-07T15:02:30.806+00:00Hours worked actually DECLINED. Hourly wages up ab...Hours worked actually DECLINED. Hourly wages up about +0.4%, hours worked down -0.3%. Sounds like inventory build, orders down, less overtime worked and wait and see before they lay off workers.<br /><br />Whatever Johnny is buying today, YOURS.... we'll take some fixed income today, thank you very much.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7653334097736741292014-03-07T14:53:26.182+00:002014-03-07T14:53:26.182+00:00C Says
Love it. Unemployment number wee spike up t...C Says<br />Love it. Unemployment number wee spike up then bang. Bring it on.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57426271180869805782014-03-07T11:43:46.540+00:002014-03-07T11:43:46.540+00:00$a short squeeze pain. The rba is snookered. How l...$a short squeeze pain. The rba is snookered. How long before the mono croud jump on that one ? Ltl Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86465916939864877522014-03-07T09:32:51.608+00:002014-03-07T09:32:51.608+00:00C Says
As the week ends I thank the Ukraine and po...C Says<br />As the week ends I thank the Ukraine and poppers for another chance to add a slice of short to my equity position. Patience is the name of this game. At this time breadth still suggests the losers are rising and that means the rotation is concentrating yet again in a lower number of stocks. Doesn't usually signify immediate crash mode although flash crash can and does occur sometimes before one get's fully loaded. Also explains why we such silly moves in bluechips on any given day when all the little Johnnies club together to play.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77035611263404977942014-03-06T20:55:18.150+00:002014-03-06T20:55:18.150+00:00Agreed, dollar direction still in the balance for ...Agreed, dollar direction still in the balance for now.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90523014245793662982014-03-06T16:06:43.046+00:002014-03-06T16:06:43.046+00:00C says
"Sorry, C". No reason for you to ...C says<br />"Sorry, C". No reason for you to be. I really don't have a directional conviction on the USD. For me the level t make or break downside is 79 and 80.5/6 upside ,but either must be on a weekly close not a daily. yesterday it was smidgen over 80 so nothing is decided for me at this point.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29166425919022341532014-03-06T15:52:11.894+00:002014-03-06T15:52:11.894+00:00Dr Aghi: 0.4pp of disinflation due to EUR strength...Dr Aghi: 0.4pp of disinflation due to EUR strength.<br /><br />This is bad news for USD and GBP bulls as it means the ECB reckon they can quantify stuff and might stomach some more of this German medicine. 1,5000 anyone?<br /><br />Loads and loads of USD and GBP longs out there v. no love for EUR and JPY. It's about time for a turn.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80907263724438149902014-03-06T15:12:59.576+00:002014-03-06T15:12:59.576+00:00Russia has produced many chess grand masters. In t...Russia has produced many chess grand masters. In this case, Putin is beating the G(8-1) champs on seven different boards simultaneously with one hand tied behind his back, while eating a sandwich and reading sexts from Sarah Palin on his iPhone.<br /><br />Bloombags had a chart of USDRUB today, with the headline "The Ruble cannot strengthen", which made me wonder whether perhaps that trade had already run its course. <br /><br />Have to agree with C on Betty. She's tottering around on nine inch heels at this point, which is fun to watch but she'll end up on her back again fairly soon. <br /><br />Bucky's bid to achieve lift off from 80 failed again. At this point only yen carry is sustaining the old lad. Sorry, C, he's tired and he wants to go to bed, for a nap. <br /><br />From LNB's vantage point between the Mianus and the Housatonic, Connie Consumer looks pretty shagged out from keeping the kids fed and warm all winter and shoveling snow, so her ability to boost demand for US retail goods looks to be quite limited. <br /><br />Whispers from the Asian links of the supply chain suggest that orders are off and shipments of plastic thingies will be slow for some time to come. It's not just the weather, it's what the heating bills did to the US household budget.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9211662570598155642014-03-06T12:37:25.406+00:002014-03-06T12:37:25.406+00:00C Says
Indeed Pol.
C Says<br />Indeed Pol.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2357577271657964972014-03-06T12:32:39.333+00:002014-03-06T12:32:39.333+00:00C says
By the way I really appreciated the Crimean...C says<br />By the way I really appreciated the Crimean stroke in pulling forward the vote date to the 16th March. Given the ethnic composition what price the outcome is a vote to go Russian which I presume is different to going commando? this isn't going to go down well most places. However, one has to admire Putin strategical nous in handling the western bureaucrats.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68073459621346218852014-03-06T12:31:47.135+00:002014-03-06T12:31:47.135+00:00But guess that would drive borrowing off shore!
But guess that would drive borrowing off shore! <br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66874535805181412342014-03-06T12:30:52.644+00:002014-03-06T12:30:52.644+00:00C, that teeter totter of boom or bust re individua...C, that teeter totter of boom or bust re individuals appears to me to be due to the inappropriateness of Interest rates as the one stop tool. Keep them low and leverage increases by those that can borrow ( normally not those that NEED to borrow) creating cost pressures but raise rates and you completely stuff those that NEED to borrow. Blue sky thinking but perhaps we somehow need to limit borrowing and so reduce the resultant leverage not by price but by some other metric. "UK budget decree that borrowing is means tested .. sorry squire you ve got grillions .. spend that .. no leverage allowed" I dunno <br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40229224040095690542014-03-06T12:12:30.712+00:002014-03-06T12:12:30.712+00:00C Says
Going back over a year I was quite bullish ...C Says<br />Going back over a year I was quite bullish UK when the general view was the UK was Europe's weakman etc and £ was hammered. That didn't seem to me to be representative of what I saw around me. We seemed to be muddling through and of course you always depend on the politicians to get vote buying happy. Out of that time arose some decent exports favoured by that weakfish pound and latterly some uplift in property based upon the govt/BOE backstopping the lenders freeing up liquidity.<br /><br />So why am I getting itzy about the UK now? Betty's had a hell of a run some places and that £ looked to have priced in a lot of good news. Likewise property and their equities when essentially policy is electioneering and probably not an ongoing policy. Indeed , the Uk won't be much different to the US in the sense of rising prices outside London will pretty soon meet unaffordability issues even without rate rises given disposable incomes have not yet improved measurably for most people.<br />Again , I get the sense people are overegging the situation. The UK was not as weak as people thought over a year ago ,but today I really think they are in danger of going the other way and overestimating our strength.<br />Betty looks too pretty at these levels for me and going forward towards a 2015 election preceded by the Scottish vote I think there is plenty of uncertainty to make people rethink their positional stance.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67776962814797984782014-03-06T09:05:18.880+00:002014-03-06T09:05:18.880+00:00C Says
We're certainly not lacking volatility ...C Says<br />We're certainly not lacking volatility this year. I note the leaderboards in both directions often print disparate numbers that make me think either daytraders are in charge ,or amateurs who think bluechips at or 10% on the day represents sound entry opportunities.<br /><br />In effect the Ftse100 has gone nowhere as an index since last May which says a lot about rotation and churn.<br />I suspect there's a considerable degree of what else is there to do going on here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85109843786249338892014-03-05T08:39:32.344+00:002014-03-05T08:39:32.344+00:00C says
Indeed ,looking at the USD it appears more ...C says<br />Indeed ,looking at the USD it appears more likely to be moving back up at least temporarily on a daily. I'm waiting for the weekly though for any entry and I don't know which way that entry will be at this time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30542417789985470202014-03-04T18:27:22.610+00:002014-03-04T18:27:22.610+00:00C says
"80" wouldn't do it for me. I...C says<br />"80" wouldn't do it for me. I'm watching that 79 line.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47855886095165175772014-03-04T17:29:36.364+00:002014-03-04T17:29:36.364+00:00C,
Very astute observation, we've been watchi...C,<br /><br />Very astute observation, we've been watching that too, and Bucky seems to want to slip beneath the 80 line. Last year was all about the DX getting stronger b/c of the Taper and The Reflation, and as a consequence we saw the flogging of EMs, REITs, munis etc. <br /><br />This year may be all about a slower US recovery, weaker DX and a return to investing in EMs over DMs. This isn't necessarily bearish US equities but we expect EMs will easily outperform, once investors see that China and Brazil have bottomed out, which may already be happening.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.com