tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3626167143923243543..comments2024-03-28T00:23:22.838+00:00Comments on Macro Man: TIPS are pricing the lowest inflation everMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65299892056484059302016-03-15T11:48:04.151+00:002016-03-15T11:48:04.151+00:00Here's a brief teaser of what our friends at P...Here's a brief teaser of what our friends at PIMCO think of this:<br />http://blog.pimco.com/2016/03/14/is-the-fed-ignoring-an-important-signal-in-market-data/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31663519241588538352016-03-03T16:55:22.123+00:002016-03-03T16:55:22.123+00:00Anon 3:30 PM - These are valid points, nevertheles...Anon 3:30 PM - These are valid points, nevertheless I believe them to only be meaningful to intelligent people (probably like you). The rest of the market will continue to rotate from bonds back into equities rabidly buying-up such quality stocks as banks & the new oil equity issuances that have just hit the market. Desperate in their search for yield in a ZIRP/NIRP world, they will blindly ignore any semblance of risk management and comfort themselves with seasonality factors such as March/April being +ve for equities. Algo's will of course front-run all these flows pushing prices way higher than should logically be expected and the ECB, BOJ and PBOC will promise to backstop everyone forever. What could possibly go wrong ;-) ?jbtfdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87680002382367610132016-03-03T15:30:26.651+00:002016-03-03T15:30:26.651+00:00jbtfd -
How about corporate top-line revenue and ...jbtfd -<br /><br />How about corporate top-line revenue and SnP earnings? Even non-GAAP earnings are rolling over. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19474204757582727252016-03-03T07:13:23.201+00:002016-03-03T07:13:23.201+00:00I hear what LB is saying (above) but in answer to ...I hear what LB is saying (above) but in answer to anon 9:25 PM I still think we see spoos go higher. Yes the Fed may (probably will) raise rates again this year, but I think the hysterics over the 25 bps raise was massively over-hyped. The US economy is doing fine, oil is unlikely to fall much further and there is still CB stimulus from ECB, BOJ, PBOC for global stocks. All these are equity positive. Net result, spoos should push through 2000 in short order, and I will be shocked/dismayed if we don't take out the 2015 highs before summer.jbtfdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61348604610359683612016-03-03T03:07:54.587+00:002016-03-03T03:07:54.587+00:00That's ok, boys....I watched no less a persona...That's ok, boys....I watched no less a personage than Maria Bartiromo a few years back in a discussion about bonds on CNBC...she obviously knew very little about the bond market, and I was floored. I don't think I can recall another discussion by her about bonds in the remainder of the time she was on CNBC, but I don't watch it that much...Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66948275888896456612016-03-03T01:48:10.128+00:002016-03-03T01:48:10.128+00:00Survival of the fittest. During mkt downturn,the w...Survival of the fittest. During mkt downturn,the weak..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40302851051766063082016-03-03T01:11:44.800+00:002016-03-03T01:11:44.800+00:00Wow re McClendon..... Pretty obviously not an acci...Wow re McClendon..... Pretty obviously not an accident.Whammernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69989431426014121932016-03-03T01:04:02.801+00:002016-03-03T01:04:02.801+00:00"The charge that has been filed against me to..."The charge that has been filed against me today is wrong and unprecedented. I have been singled out as the only person in the oil and gas industry in over 110 years since the Sherman Act became law to have been accused of this crime in relation to joint bidding on leasehold. Anyone who knows me, my business record and the industry in which I have worked for 35 years, knows that I could not be guilty of violating any antitrust laws. All my life I have worked to create jobs in Oklahoma, grow its economy, and to provide abundant and affordable energy to all Americans. I am proud of my track record in this industry, and I will fight to prove my innocence and to clear my name".<br />http://www.businessinsider.com/former-chesapeake-ceo-aubrey-mcclendon-has-died-in-a-car-accident-2016-3Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43752464152248731392016-03-03T01:01:39.271+00:002016-03-03T01:01:39.271+00:00How fortunes change. Few years ago when natty was ...How fortunes change. Few years ago when natty was in teens, he garnered so much attention...<br /><br />Aubrey McClendon. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44411981137334074752016-03-03T00:51:44.482+00:002016-03-03T00:51:44.482+00:00Godfather. What say ye..
http://www.marketwatch.c...Godfather. What say ye..<br /><br />http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-godfather-like-ultimatum-to-paul-ryan-get-along-or-pay-a-big-price-2016-03-01?dist=countdownAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86485784851950242872016-03-02T23:19:56.449+00:002016-03-02T23:19:56.449+00:00A few other people have that "overbought"...A few other people have that "overbought" feeling about the market today. McClellan oscillator now above 90:<br /><br /><a href="https://northmantrader.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/nymom.png" rel="nofollow"> McClellan Oscillator Flashing Overbought </a><br /><br />A few other charts from Northman Trader. The $vix collapse is quite interesting, fits in with the low volume action we saw today and the extensive return of vol sellers that we had predicted ten days ago here and have seen in the last few trading days:<br /><br /><a href="http://northmantrader.com/technical-charts/" rel="nofollow"> Northman Trader technical charts </a><br /><br />Not to say this low volume melt-up can't continue (how many times have we seen these moves, Jbtfd would ask us here?), but the present leg of the W may be getting a bit long in the tooth. A pause and retracement would not be a surprise here.<br /><br />Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8217720133567257302016-03-02T22:47:04.763+00:002016-03-02T22:47:04.763+00:00Good day for the portfolio in terms of EM and Euro...Good day for the portfolio in terms of EM and European energy stocks, and a bad day to have decided to hedge. Still.. crude oil, EEM and XLE all now kiss the upper Bolly band or have pierced it to the upside, so the same diagnosis of the energy sector being overbought still applies. Natty inventories and Cushing storage levels are through the roof, so if and when fundamentals apply and/or Bucky surges again, some mean reversion would seem likely. Another case of LB being early and/or wrong? We'll see.<br /><br />Btw, the discussion here has been great and I really enjoyed the dissection of the TIPS market and break-evens, which was very informative. Millennials are encouraged to hang with the old folks. Nico G would be welcome back, of course, trolls less so.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54651329559548536112016-03-02T21:47:14.475+00:002016-03-02T21:47:14.475+00:00This is anon3:54,
Sorry I meant to say risk on, b...This is anon3:54,<br /><br />Sorry I meant to say risk on, but typed risk off instead. Thanks Whammer for pointing that out...<br /><br />Sorry for the confusion folks.<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5297883386710156802016-03-02T21:25:41.944+00:002016-03-02T21:25:41.944+00:00@jbtfd - in your considered analysis, how do you a...@jbtfd - in your considered analysis, how do you account for new highs in the US? Say we were to rally further here, and with decent US data & Europe Japan rallying on their own QE, do you not think the FED would be boxed in and have to raise sooner than expectations? Do you not think the FED has set a ceiling on equities?<br /><br />Personally, I think they're boxed in. Any extended period above, say 2000, pushes them to raise. Limited excuses with the data out there. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72095963543599189502016-03-02T21:20:49.740+00:002016-03-02T21:20:49.740+00:00Great post MM, I'm curious to hear if any of t...Great post MM, I'm curious to hear if any of the other world markets are better at predicting inflation vs the clearly distorted US TIPs market. From the comments, apparently not in JP or EZ. Any additional input would be appreciated. I know Brazil has some inflation paper as well.<br /><br />FWIW I find it funny this whole notion of trusting in markets for accurate data in the future. Financial markets are like democracy, they are the least worst option and they certainly arent perfect forecasters. I found it interesting to recently learn that the fed funds forward rate has systematically underestimated Fed rate hiking cycles in the past, and got it right only 6 times in the past 30 years. So if the liquid fed fund futures market has a horrible hit ratio, what are we to make of the smaller, less liquid TIPs market?abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3085022114487899222016-03-02T21:20:21.621+00:002016-03-02T21:20:21.621+00:00@Whammer, Touche. I miss read and miss typed that ...@Whammer, Touche. I miss read and miss typed that entire exchange...(slowly backs out of the comments section hoping no one notices)Millennial PMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12593060341476672822016-03-02T21:08:41.631+00:002016-03-02T21:08:41.631+00:00Metals. Just look at the price moves in metals. Metals. Just look at the price moves in metals. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69362874670736394422016-03-02T21:07:25.847+00:002016-03-02T21:07:25.847+00:00@Millenial PM, I think there is some confusion on ...@Millenial PM, I think there is some confusion on "risk off" and "risk on". <br /><br />Where -- "risk off" means flight from risk and increased safe asset demand, and "risk on" means ditch those USTs and buy yourself some TSLA.<br /><br />Whammernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4255136555268531512016-03-02T21:04:41.223+00:002016-03-02T21:04:41.223+00:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.jbtfdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24614736557012072352016-03-02T20:51:52.542+00:002016-03-02T20:51:52.542+00:00@BnT I believe the comment was assuming risk off -...@BnT I believe the comment was assuming risk off -> decrease safe asset demand + risky asset price inflation -> Treasury sell off + increase Inflation exp + increase Fed Rate hike exp -> long dated Treasury yield increase from current levels.Millennial PMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8074907337232478462016-03-02T20:51:28.287+00:002016-03-02T20:51:28.287+00:00BinT - I think anon 3:54's point, and one that...BinT - I think anon 3:54's point, and one that is under-appreciated by most, is that a major sell off in treasuries (not precipitated by portfolio allocations in favor of equities and away from bonds) would in and of itself constitute a catalyst for an equity selloff - given the number of institutional LT portfolios, especially insurance and pension funds that rather carelessly assume that the two shall remain negatively correlated forever I would certainly see it as a risk - I don't think the moons are aligned for something like that to happen yet, however, although we did get a bit of a taste of what that looks like in summer 2014 for about a fortnight right before everyone got intellectually swept away in a deflationary tsunami from the crude crash. The last time we saw a full blown scare of that type other than the 70's was probably in 04-05. <br />Al is the resident portfolio allocation guru so he may have a more nuanced opinion. The larger point of course is that flows will trump fundamentals. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25284441116133942142016-03-02T20:31:59.290+00:002016-03-02T20:31:59.290+00:00"I think that the increasing long bond yield ...<br />"I think that the increasing long bond yield is more likely to be the result of risk off..."<br /><br />?...Not sure I follow that anon@3:54<br /><br />...If the globe were trending to risk off, wouldn't the yield go down? Of course, we are in the new lecture series on global economics.... :)Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15825195501156291712016-03-02T18:44:28.367+00:002016-03-02T18:44:28.367+00:00Elon Musk on Japan's demographic crisis: &quo...Elon Musk on Japan's demographic crisis: "adult diapers are now outselling baby diapers". Too much, if true ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12876689106393942402016-03-02T17:36:16.131+00:002016-03-02T17:36:16.131+00:00FYI Garzarelli at Goldman published this same anal...FYI Garzarelli at Goldman published this same analysis on Feb 23. He found that, if WTI is realized along the futures curve, then y.o.y. core CPI inflation has to fall below zero in 2017, which has never happened, as you note. Great minds think alike!Ghost of Walter Bagehotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23112971460850463422016-03-02T16:22:09.022+00:002016-03-02T16:22:09.022+00:00To anon 4.06, unless our housing mkt goes down, in...To anon 4.06, unless our housing mkt goes down, in which case might get messyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com