tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3466762586598745798..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Holidays Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53567780175509509092013-08-12T20:03:01.715+01:002013-08-12T20:03:01.715+01:00One thing that isn't boring today? Take a look...One thing that isn't boring today? Take a look at gold miners, GDX and GDXJ. Melt up....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34481806969186832752013-08-12T19:45:11.113+01:002013-08-12T19:45:11.113+01:00markets looking toppy here... all shampoo bottle t...markets looking toppy here... all shampoo bottle technicians are coming out with H&S on US equitiesabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18198257300723037292013-08-12T17:11:59.747+01:002013-08-12T17:11:59.747+01:00We are long EBR and CIG in Brazil. Hope/think the ...We are long EBR and CIG in Brazil. Hope/think the bottom is in....<br /><br />It's August. Mainstream media say "stocks turn mixed". How many more signs do you need to see that say DO NOT TRADE today?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30701041786019123662013-08-10T20:39:51.072+01:002013-08-10T20:39:51.072+01:00Europe is killing it; not sure about the EMs yet. ...Europe is killing it; not sure about the EMs yet. Brazil looks interesting specifically.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10738950269515658242013-08-09T17:17:13.716+01:002013-08-09T17:17:13.716+01:00Long-term Treasuries due for a rally? Bond sentime...Long-term Treasuries due for a rally? Bond sentiment is extremely low, even as TLT sits on long-term support, as per this chart from Chris Kimble:<br /><br /><a href="http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/index.html?guest/2013/CK-130809-Fig-1.jpg" rel="nofollow"> TLT on Long-Term Support? </a><br /><br />The long-running USDJPY rally seems to have suffered some serious setbacks, that's still the one to watch for now among FX pairs. Bucky certainly not pounding other currencies any more, and the EMs are starting to pick up as a result.<br /><br />Our second half theme, Europe and EMs over US, seems to be off to a decent start in August.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91570670972132480152013-08-09T13:51:03.250+01:002013-08-09T13:51:03.250+01:00hahah on TSLA and F. Remember though TSLA stock pr...hahah on TSLA and F. Remember though TSLA stock price is nutty, mkt cap is still pretty small. Look what happened to PCLN. Also TSLA has a huge short interest. <br /><br />And a high fixed cost business model means profits can improve a lot.<br /><br />I think the bubble this time is more likely in biotech...but it probably still has room to goabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62003385383956068302013-08-09T12:48:51.997+01:002013-08-09T12:48:51.997+01:00Yup. Teeter-totter, we call it here, C.
Play small...Yup. Teeter-totter, we call it here, C.<br />Play small. It is August, after all.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91327901353919957392013-08-09T09:30:02.433+01:002013-08-09T09:30:02.433+01:00C Says
Still playing See Saw and now looking for t...C Says<br />Still playing See Saw and now looking for the Sore Saw.<br /><br />Because I still struggle to see where value might be if monetary policy does not follow the complacency path I lack the conviction to be fully committed to direction on a longer B & H. Until that changes it's See saw for me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88599956868172355672013-08-09T02:31:41.987+01:002013-08-09T02:31:41.987+01:00HD looks like a short. IBM a major short. Lots o...HD looks like a short. IBM a major short. Lots of tasty charts to short actually.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21855646279758941472013-08-07T22:26:07.679+01:002013-08-07T22:26:07.679+01:00If this is an echo of the internet age, then TSLA ...If this is an echo of the internet age, then TSLA will rally to 500, then buy F in an all-stock deal ala AOL.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39218553199296319622013-08-07T21:39:04.607+01:002013-08-07T21:39:04.607+01:00LoL @ TSLA getting a bit ballistic here...
I can ...LoL @ TSLA getting a bit ballistic here...<br /><br />I can only explain this with that the world has really been lacking tech innovation for some while now, so everything new promising even a hint of modern age revolution will drive the crowds insane. <br /><br />But historically all new inventions have only benefitted the consumer, not corporate profits as sooner or later the competition will wither the margins away. And BMW, Toyota, GM and friends aren't far away. Electric vehicles isn't a that new invention either. It's been around in forklifts, locomotives, ships etc. around for ages. The problem is still the battery tech.<br /><br />I fail to see, what is the real competitive advantage for TSLA other than a little brand building headstart before the big playas get the ball rolling. Is it just me or anyone else seeing a connection to the dawn of internet age and stocks with crazy valuation..?<br /><br />I would be more interested in the battery tech companies. Thats where the real winners will emerge, with vital patents and all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22643796136449015042013-08-07T19:37:19.223+01:002013-08-07T19:37:19.223+01:00Enough people are feeling yennish today to drive t...Enough people are feeling yennish today to drive the Nikkei down further, and this market a lot lower.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73146990504476978382013-08-07T19:25:46.346+01:002013-08-07T19:25:46.346+01:00Weak bounce again today. Still very complacent out...Weak bounce again today. Still very complacent out there in the mass media. Everyone on TeeVee still pounding the table to buy buy buy.<br /><br />Very revealing that bonds were strong ahead of the auction. This isn't the "Taper Trade" where we sell everything (stocks + all bonds + gold) and go to cash, aka "King Dollar" that we had seen this summer. It's the old flight to safety, sell (equities + junk bonds) go to IG + Treasuries.<br /><br />Here's an interesting observation. A few weeks ago, MORT and XHB were a leveraged rates play. If rates spiked, they sold off together. If rates fell, they rallied. [Hint: Hedgies in play]. Today, XHB is down hard even though rates are lower. MORT is trading in lock step with IWM. That's very bearish XHB, the HFs have left the building (stocks).<br /><br />10s sold at 2.62%. More or less on the number. Yield is falling now. Punters who were scared before the auction are getting on board Treasuries, but high yield isn't bid. I wonder what it is that credit investors can see out there?<br /><br />Crude is selling off. US crude inventories are very high for this time of year and US gasoline demand remains weak this year despite the normal seasonal trend. Sell US energy stocks.<br /><br />$4 gas automatically triggers demand destruction in the new paradigm for middle America, where Joe Sixpack just got furloughed from his gubmint job and Josephine Sixpack's job is down to 29 hours to avoid health care costs.<br /><br />Banks are always sitting on a pile of fixed income (Ts, corporates and MBS) just like the Fed is today. That lot all got marked down in Q2 and they'll not want it to deteriorate much further. Time to call up the kids on the equities desk and get them to dump some over-priced crap on the market?<br /><br />Not a whiff of fear out there. This market goes lower.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14350954045030286432013-08-07T16:38:09.303+01:002013-08-07T16:38:09.303+01:00no love for cys, nly or Muni land (mub)... I'l...no love for cys, nly or Muni land (mub)... I'll be looking to buy some on the next dip lower, but not yet. 30yr looking weakabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68648047335553412412013-08-07T14:59:10.753+01:002013-08-07T14:59:10.753+01:00nice turn around in cable!
yen looking to get to ...nice turn around in cable!<br /><br />yen looking to get to 95 again.. play the range? I think soabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53043460842149114422013-08-07T12:04:43.349+01:002013-08-07T12:04:43.349+01:00A good day for BTL rentiers. No sleepless nights a...A good day for BTL rentiers. No sleepless nights abt your cost of funding for the next two years.<br /><br />What could possibly go wrong?<br /><br />DDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18078182362125919102013-08-06T19:38:48.412+01:002013-08-06T19:38:48.412+01:00Noticed that, Anon. My MTGE buy on the Pine River...Noticed that, Anon. My MTGE buy on the Pine River news has worked very well, while other vehicles (DX, PDI specifically) get whacked.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5952681693034053282013-08-06T15:21:24.784+01:002013-08-06T15:21:24.784+01:00REIT investors don't all agree on rising rates...REIT investors don't all agree on rising rates as yet. MTGE is up 17% from its lows and nobody is selling AGNC or NLY any more, but CYS, HTS and TWO still having a hard time of it.<br /><br />It will be interesting to watch these stocks as slower US data starts to appear. We have just had an effective 100 bps of tightening in a slow economy. It's likely that this will pin growth at 0.5% in the second half, and an outright mild recession this winter isn't out of the question. <br /><br />Credit spreads are widening and rate-sensitive equities are already beginning to reflect the prospect of slower than anticipated US growth. These last two weeks there has been a decent bounce in shares of those companies that borrow cheaply at short-term rates, as investors realize the short end will stay pinned for a very long time. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85474553600687097692013-08-06T15:06:14.766+01:002013-08-06T15:06:14.766+01:00So. Here we are. August. Low volume. VIX sub-12. S...So. Here we are. August. Low volume. VIX sub-12. Slow summer markets always drift, up right? What could possibly go wrong? Other than the Taper, it’s all good, right?<br /><br />Another of those interesting indicators is flagged at all time highs here. Dividing the OEX by the VIX yields a measure of complacency, the inverse of the perceived need for protection.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-05/blue-sky-index-flashing-red" rel="nofollow"> Blue Sky Index Shows Complacency Very High </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24448179021283447812013-08-05T12:44:19.731+01:002013-08-05T12:44:19.731+01:00LB, More on the housing recovery in the US:
http:...LB, More on the housing recovery in the US:<br /><br />http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/sy-harding/real-estate-mini-bubble-deflating-may-be-economy-s-next-problemAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86305654477265624592013-08-04T06:16:29.999+01:002013-08-04T06:16:29.999+01:00There's a pretty obvious divergence even in th...There's a pretty obvious divergence even in this simple chart, but I am sure it will be resolved in a bullish manner, as the Fed (and everybody else with any sense) marches on, pretending that all is better than ever.<br /><br />I mean, look at the Transportation Index. Railroads are booming, full speed ahead. Moving a lot of oil for the first time since the original Rockefellah, back before they had pipelines. However, there are probably ten million more mouths to feed in the US since the Lehman moment, and I suppose they get a lot of their food by rail. Could be the Tansport Index is hopelessly broken now. Just sayin'<br /><br />RossmorguyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75056423148021940842013-08-03T13:20:41.413+01:002013-08-03T13:20:41.413+01:00Good stuff, LB. It's funny, because steepenin...Good stuff, LB. It's funny, because steepening yield curve is supposed to be so good for financials' future earnings, even though it also means they're broke.<br /><br />http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XLF+Basic+Chart<br /><br />RossmorguyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80566919483002700642013-08-02T21:36:13.856+01:002013-08-02T21:36:13.856+01:00Amazon's stock is expensive, so is FB, and bio...Amazon's stock is expensive, so is FB, and biotech is just nutty but I think LNKD takes the prize.. 673 p/e, though one could argue that Tesla is about 100x 2015E... funny stuff<br /><br />before I didnt mind bc they were small market cap. but now they getting big..25B for LNKD put it in top 200 S&P companies... I dunno about thatabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54849497979360620512013-08-02T14:26:37.888+01:002013-08-02T14:26:37.888+01:00Some of the more coherent thoughts we have read on...Some of the more coherent thoughts we have read on the Fed's balance sheet expressed here by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners:<br /><br /><a href="http://guggenheimpartners.com/perspectives/macroview/the-fed%E2%80%99s-balance-sheet" rel="nofollow"> The Fed's Balance Sheet </a><br /><br />So the world's largest hedge fund doesn't have to MtM. But they still had a really lousy month. Don't expect them to sit idly by if rates continue to rise. The Fed has ample access to large supplies of cold water should they need to pour any on speculators.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36024477506441860032013-08-02T14:14:51.050+01:002013-08-02T14:14:51.050+01:00"The personal-consumption expenditure index, ..."The personal-consumption expenditure index, which Federal Reserve officials say is a more accurate gauge of inflation than the better-known consumer price index, rose 0.4% on the month."<br /><br />This is more or less exactly explained by the consumer buying more expensive gasoline in July. At the same time, hourly wages fell and mortgage payments for new purchases rose substantially. Not exactly a rosy picture of the robust US consumer.<br /><br />How much longer will punters keep on paying a premium to own "growth stocks" in a manifestly low growth environment?<br /><br />The participation rate fell again. This is not very surprising to those who actually live and work in middle America, as apart from some closeted enclave where everyone works in finance and is a selective beneficiary of "trickle down economics". <br /><br />US "Middle class" Boomers who lose jobs will never work again, while those employed will never retire, making it more and more difficult for young people to enter the work force. Now, who was supposed to buy all these new houses again?<br /><br />Absent a few hot spots (Silicon Valley, DC suburbs, North Dakota) this is a picture of a flat economy. Let's see how long crude oil and gasoline can stay at these levels with plenty of supply and the seasonal driving blip about to decline.<br /><br />By the way, am I the only one who smells a round of litigation for US banks on the way in the wake of the Fabulous Fab verdict? Does this pave the way for a prosecution of the biggest fixers of all time? The Tourre verdict sets a precedent for some very close scrutiny of the deals between J Paulson and GS that led to The Big Short. Many have long believed this to be the ultimate in illegal insider trading.<br /><br />Just a thought, on this August Friday. It's quiet out there, too quiet.....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.com