tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3404618194883890754..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Guiders 1 - Bond Vigilantes 0 - Guidance minus 1. Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger44125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32852180539013012352013-10-11T17:01:07.024+01:002013-10-11T17:01:07.024+01:00Everyone loves EU banks!
Its the new biotech, FB ...Everyone loves EU banks!<br /><br />Its the new biotech, FB and Tesla<br /><br />The 'S&P is going to trade within a range for the rest of the year' crowd must be feeling it as 1700 is now within shooting distance. <br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81112019422208255672013-10-11T05:39:35.837+01:002013-10-11T05:39:35.837+01:00MacroMan is dead. Long live MacroMan. MacroMan is dead. Long live MacroMan. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79815240052796825362013-10-10T14:49:32.348+01:002013-10-10T14:49:32.348+01:00question for the fx crowd
usdjpy make or break he...question for the fx crowd<br /><br />usdjpy make or break here, technically, right?<br /><br />with fxvol somewhat low (vs equity), best bang for your buck (see what I did there) in US fiscal shenanigans trades?<br /><br />or are we reading this wrong<br /><br />-DDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70303573481742405612013-10-08T16:38:22.281+01:002013-10-08T16:38:22.281+01:00where's all that sideline money rushing to get...where's all that sideline money rushing to get in?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81279019459566854752013-10-04T15:42:29.339+01:002013-10-04T15:42:29.339+01:00Dollar rally in effect, even as the politicians di...Dollar rally in effect, even as the politicians dither. We will see more of that, and higher US rates, when agreement is reached. Markets are really yawning at the debt ceiling debate and the shutdown, both of which they have seen before (2011 and many times).<br /><br />Have been short Betty until this morning. Will look to bash her repeatedly on renewed bouts of dollar weakness. Euro also too high here.<br /><br />Vol sellers are going to have their way in this market sooner or later. After the inevitable equity bounce, we will go back to dancing the Taper Tango....<br /><br />This is a good time to lighten up on those EM credit and equity trades people have had on. There will be another opportunity before too long, after the USD bounce has run its course.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50806488034269478292013-10-03T22:50:04.606+01:002013-10-03T22:50:04.606+01:00C says
I wonder when someone is going to mention t...C says<br />I wonder when someone is going to mention the possibility of a treble top DOW. Oh I just have !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82903124606196083682013-10-03T17:10:59.176+01:002013-10-03T17:10:59.176+01:00Panto in full swing this afternoon:
LEW: "Lo...Panto in full swing this afternoon:<br /><br />LEW: "Look out, Boner, Default is behind you."<br />BONER: "Oh no it isn't!"<br />(AUDIENCE) OH YES IT IS.<br />BONER: "OH no it isn't!"<br />(AUDIENCE) OH YES IT IS.<br /><br />{The Spoos plunge, BIG EARS enters, smirking}<br /><br />BIG EARS: "Hey, Boner, Default is behind you."<br />BONER: "Oh no it isn't!"<br />(AUDIENCE) OH YES IT IS.<br />BONER: "OH no it isn't!"<br />(AUDIENCE) OH YES IT IS.<br /><br />Repeat until curtain....<br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84494605425438615942013-10-03T15:48:53.602+01:002013-10-03T15:48:53.602+01:00In complete agreement with the last two comments. ...In complete agreement with the last two comments. Starting to position for the inevitable dollar rally. We are already short some Euros, bashing Betty, hedging US fixed income exposure and lightening up on EM equities in anticipation of new buying opportunities ahead.<br /><br />After the inevitable post-Panto monster relief rally, who knows? The US remains weak and playing 1-2% growth outcomes will be the way to go. But the next big thing will undoubtedly be US equity and USD shorts getting fried. Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51231468594193726162013-10-03T12:55:08.042+01:002013-10-03T12:55:08.042+01:00C Says
There's not much out there I want as i...C Says<br />There's not much out there I want as it stands. When the US get's out of deadlock it is going to get very messy very quickly in some stuff. Thinking Rupees ,Yen etc etc. What that might then do over in metals etc as well emerging mkts in general. What hath been giveth the good lord taketh away.<br />Amen Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13705755052845986372013-10-02T20:14:20.838+01:002013-10-02T20:14:20.838+01:00The US economy explained in two charts:
Declining ...The US economy explained in two charts:<br />Declining real median household income and a declining workforce:<br /><br />http://i.imgur.com/pdvc9UQ.png<br /><br />No work, no income, no problem.<br /><br />Solution: Higher levels of personal current transfers (i.e. SS, Medicare, SSI, DI, SNAP, etc) fueling consumer spending.<br /><br />http://i.imgur.com/1NtTFpb.pngJimnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37098739304716763862013-10-02T20:13:41.097+01:002013-10-02T20:13:41.097+01:00
The US economy explained in two charts:
Declining...<br />The US economy explained in two charts:<br />Declining real median household income and a declining workforce:<br /><br />http://i.imgur.com/pdvc9UQ.png<br /><br />No work, no income, no problem.<br /><br />Solution: Higher levels of personal current transfers (i.e. SS, Medicare, SSI, DI, SNAP, etc) fueling consumer spending.<br /><br />http://i.imgur.com/1NtTFpb.pngJimnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36111131289869226132013-10-02T19:36:22.625+01:002013-10-02T19:36:22.625+01:00Yes, indeed. Q4 fund flows duly absorbed.
Today&#...Yes, indeed. Q4 fund flows duly absorbed.<br /><br />Today's ADP number does rather support LB's tepid US economy ("faux growth") model. Fixed income looking healthy and rate-sensitive assets percolating nicely. We may get a brief burp in the Treasury market if the Fools on The Hill are still dithering when next week's auctions arise, or alternatively if there is a "risk on relief rally" (RORR) and we are hedging against this possibility. If it happens it would surely be a buying opportunity in bonds, based on today's underwhelming jobs data.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37898042982087976442013-10-02T10:24:50.166+01:002013-10-02T10:24:50.166+01:00C Says
I thought "Mr Markets reaction" w...C Says<br />I thought "Mr Markets reaction" was actually period of the month automatic reinvestment moneyflows offsetting what I still expect to resolve downwards.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35198762114548288192013-10-01T17:36:46.621+01:002013-10-01T17:36:46.621+01:00Mr. Market reaction to the shutdown is like the ag...Mr. Market reaction to the shutdown is like the age old pondering:<br /><br />"If a tree falls down in the forest, but no one is around to hear it... does it make a noise?"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70902971605471699392013-10-01T15:09:44.025+01:002013-10-01T15:09:44.025+01:00Sterling in Wonderland, closing in on $1,6300. Sho...Sterling in Wonderland, closing in on $1,6300. Should one prepare to bash Betty, TMM?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64498782451012133832013-09-30T13:20:35.053+01:002013-09-30T13:20:35.053+01:00C, great summary of where we are.
LB passed by Ch...C, great summary of where we are.<br /><br />LB passed by Cheltenham in one of Sir Richard's tube like trains last week, while on a secret mission to do nothing slowly for five days. Weather was perfect.<br /><br />US Panto Season has arrived early this year. A twin bill this time, Shutdown followed by Ceiling. Not exactly classics, a bit like listening to Cav and Pag.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85088465823128986452013-09-30T11:46:35.032+01:002013-09-30T11:46:35.032+01:00C says,
I was intrigued by this.
"The U.S. C...C says,<br />I was intrigued by this.<br /><br />"The U.S. Census Bureau says the median American household’s income was 1.3 percent lower in 2012 than in 1989 after adjusting for inflation"<br /><br />I suspect the UK would be not substantially different.<br /><br />My very long term is this. Post '70's we have two main drivers of wealth distribution. The first was the New Management Theory ethos which saw Income push upwards radically changing the long term multiples between income groups. The second was the Post Volker central bank approach to monetary policy which in my view rewards holders of capital first and reinforces wealth distribution away from the median.<br />Note that the transmission effect of such policy appear to have diminished over that period. After each recession the recovery appears slower than the one before.<br />Note that the % consumption between income groups also differs. The poorer you are the more of your income you tend to consume. The richer you are the less you consume.<br />As jigsaw puzzles go I get the sense that monetary policy has become the problem and not the solution. By exacerbating trickle up in wealth it is creating an issue with consumption in the sense that our economies after each recession leave a larger and larger segment of our population further behind the median.<br /><br />The above was camouflaged I suspect twofold. First by Asian growth creating a deflationary effect which was beneficial to the purchasing power of Western incomes. Secondly by the deluge of easy credit which at least supported incomes diminishing purchasing power by allowing greater and greater levels of liability to be attached to future incomes. Not bad ,but if those incomes are on aggregate either going nowhere ,or even diminishing then we have a problem.<br /><br />I think the obvious conclusion here is we may have reached a tipping point on the benefits that can accrue from easy monetary policy practices as it is. The answer to future sustainable growth as opposed to simple repetitions of bust must lie with fiscal policy correcting the distribution of wealth.<br />That at first blush probably reads as socialist in nature ,but it isn't. The point I am making here is it appears to me that even the top income groups will start to suffer from diminishing returns on investment if income distribution remains as it is.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28485199942080741632013-09-30T03:42:15.598+01:002013-09-30T03:42:15.598+01:00Yes, it is looking distinctly pear-shaped on this ...Yes, it is looking distinctly pear-shaped on this Sunday night, after a quiet beautiful weekend here. EURUSD down and Spoos plunging, which according to the media is mainly on Italy news and the possible US government shutdown.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50985792684803282152013-09-27T20:49:52.651+01:002013-09-27T20:49:52.651+01:00I think they might have a clue there LB. If someon...I think they might have a clue there LB. If someone thought all is finally well and stable in Italy, think again. America doesn't have a monopoly for clown shows:<br /><br />www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/27/italy-politics-idUSL5N0HN1W520130927<br /><br />This might well mark a beginning for next seasons EZ soap opera, plunging things to chaos and bond rates upwards in Club Med.<br /><br />Meanwhile the Mangler will be busy with her own governance so no support expected from that direction. <br /><br />All speculation for now thou....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20901323372164151102013-09-27T20:16:49.123+01:002013-09-27T20:16:49.123+01:00It's a slow news day, so LB thought he would h...It's a slow news day, so LB thought he would highlight a couple of stories on the bear side:<br /><br />1) Spreads have been widening, JNK weakening:<br /><br /><a href="http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Chris-Kimble-130927-Joe-Friday.php" rel="nofollow"> Junk Bonds Weak </a><br /><br />2) Increasing whispers out there of another imminent downgrade of Italy by S&P. Can't find a respectable outlet with this story yet but Ambrose will be all over it, you can bet.<br /><br />Everyone knows Europe doesn't want EUR to stay up here so don't be surprised if it doesn't. Mini-crisis, anyone?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79932647442449491872013-09-27T19:29:59.538+01:002013-09-27T19:29:59.538+01:00Senate passes bill to avert shutdown.
But of cou...Senate passes bill to avert shutdown. <br /><br />But of course it's the House where the real loonies are. So today's vote doesn't mean much.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88775664670959010722013-09-27T17:12:47.307+01:002013-09-27T17:12:47.307+01:00Quite so. We are expecting a dribble downwards whi...Quite so. We are expecting a dribble downwards while the Fools On The Hill continue their kabuki theatre, then a relief rally that begins from the moment of maximal apparent congressional ineptitude.<br /><br />Things are looking a lot better at Low Rate World asset management after we have had a couple of weeks for the Detapering Partners trading thesis to sink in. Like many others here, we were positioned for a modest rally in bonds and REITs post-taper, so the Non Taper was a gift, really.<br /><br />We think that US equity markets are now discounting some seriously lousy fixed income trading results soon to be revealed by the big boys, and that those earnings disappointments will probably coincide with the worst excesses of the Washington Clown Show. October's options expiration occurs at a convenient time of the month, and should a DC debt fudge emerge next week, it will enable Vol Sellers to engage in another ritual slaughter of the shorts.......<br /><br />All in all, it's a great time to be watching, while receiving rates and dividends.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78354459161308575142013-09-27T15:06:22.599+01:002013-09-27T15:06:22.599+01:00Absolutely uncanny how we're following the sam...Absolutely uncanny how we're following the same script as last year's September post-Fed, when optimism was high and managers were still "under invested" and looking to piggyback the BB put.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11976275883567271192013-09-27T13:35:05.436+01:002013-09-27T13:35:05.436+01:00Haven't made a trade in ten days. Choppy actio...Haven't made a trade in ten days. Choppy action on rubbish volume.<br /><br />It's Panto Season again, with The Cliff being replaced this year by The Ceiling...... hit it, Lionel:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdQDXs75Ulo" rel="nofollow"> Dancing on the (Debt) Ceiling </a><br /><br />(Caution, there are some really bad haircuts in this video...)Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53914849584886740492013-09-25T12:50:39.225+01:002013-09-25T12:50:39.225+01:00C Says
I like to let a few days g by after and eve...C Says<br />I like to let a few days g by after and event such as last week.<br />I am not "suspicious" about the data which now shows record high moneyflow into equity ETF's which comes hard on the back of record outflows from govt bonds.<br />I might be wrong ,but I as an enthusiast of Mean Reversion I personally would not ignore that sort of extreme of readings. I am always "suspicious" of "records".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com