tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3297748081574081420..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: In Case of Global Consensus Break GlassMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29222153747892972092010-11-15T10:59:34.020+00:002010-11-15T10:59:34.020+00:00Good ideas? At the moment, I feel quite light on t...Good ideas? At the moment, I feel quite light on them.<br /><br />I still think that the trend in being short EUR has further to go. I guess Australia is starting to look interesting, with money getting tighter over there. The increasing disquiet with the Federal Reserve in the US, and the probable zero fiscal stimulus for the next two years is another interesting point that could keep the dollar in the 75-90 range for a while yet....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89303665653108973932010-11-15T01:54:53.864+00:002010-11-15T01:54:53.864+00:00Hey MMT,
As usual very interesting comments.
I w...Hey MMT,<br /><br />As usual very interesting comments.<br /><br />I will refer to your comments on rates, as to be more specific ("one<br />way ticket up").<br /><br />Are you assuming Asia revalues and all of a sudden the C/A surpluses<br />(and portfolio inflows) disappear, and thus reserve recycling (into treasuries) stops?<br /><br />It can happen, but looks rather unlikely, as Chine does not want to<br />move in a big way and Asia still favors a mercantilist approach to<br />trade (maybe India is the exception).<br /><br />Also you seem to be assuming that the offsetting boost in US exports<br />will lower unemployment to the point that Ben will stop intervening in treasuries.<br /><br />If all that were to happen, then I agree that we would be facing much<br />higher real yields and much lower gold. But how likely is this<br />scenario? It's a perfect scenario from the US economy and Global<br />rebalancing perspective, but looks extremely unlikely.<br /><br />Asia (and China) will only really move in FX when inflation and<br />overheating become a problem. In the meanwhile the US will be<br />inflating them with QE.<br /><br />-FilipFiatMoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15672827538147682342noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59835148610782388962010-11-14T07:05:53.886+00:002010-11-14T07:05:53.886+00:00TMM, Our form race of the year is over.
Now that ...TMM, Our form race of the year is over.<br /><br />Now that they've crossed the line and return to their stall, the first noticable sign shown is that there all sweating profusely,not one seems have taken it in its stride, except our ref no doubt, though his only the clerk of the course these days.<br /><br />Don't know which one put in the top for the year, but inclined to run along with our NFP week/week after system if I was to go long, pretty lame I know , I'll be giving it only a couple strides to show any improvement.....I always remember, when it comes to form races the most important variable is how they pullup in their honest lead up race.....this is a plungers market.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11882601304613626929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45465001943387996052010-11-13T03:12:27.561+00:002010-11-13T03:12:27.561+00:00in this case, even gold is not fat tailed enough.....in this case, even gold is not fat tailed enough...<br /><br />http://www.zombieresearch.org/<br /><br />worth investigatingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72271616356836202002010-11-12T22:05:03.170+00:002010-11-12T22:05:03.170+00:00I think you should stick to preparing for zombie a...I think you should stick to preparing for zombie apocalypse. The tail's fatter there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5645040709733564722010-11-12T18:55:06.978+00:002010-11-12T18:55:06.978+00:00"I guess, like a broken clock, you'll be ..."I guess, like a broken clock, you'll be right one day."<br /><br />if all you have going for you is being right I would suggest you'll struggle to make money long term.<br />We are frequently wrong ,but in being so smaller thane when we are right we make money. I have yet to meet anyone making money simply on the basis that they have made right calls.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53271377340092739842010-11-12T18:15:19.737+00:002010-11-12T18:15:19.737+00:00Hi. Anon 1 . U are completly correct, we have been...Hi. Anon 1 . U are completly correct, we have been wrong wrong wrong. But thats the fun of markets. If u scratch off every asset class you ever call wrong from the bingo card, you would fast run out of assets to trade. But you have to play on... Any good ideas from here? Would welcome all thoughts u have.. <br />pp.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66036657496646708412010-11-12T16:17:36.688+00:002010-11-12T16:17:36.688+00:00They are talking about "in the case of global...They are talking about "in the case of global consensus", which is clearly not what is happening here.Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05004547222133287415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53902694016373334372010-11-12T15:45:59.088+00:002010-11-12T15:45:59.088+00:00Ah, the macroman clarion call, "gold will fal...Ah, the macroman clarion call, "gold will fall". I recall last year at 950 buck gold, the same thing was said. <br /><br />I guess, like a broken clock, you'll be right one day.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com