tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post327280387792263768..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: FalsiesMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85039200247527012812009-07-17T18:11:56.752+01:002009-07-17T18:11:56.752+01:00Umm why do I feel like I've played two rugby g...Umm why do I feel like I've played two rugby games a day since Sunday?<br /><br />Having to work this hard is not good for my golf game people.Professional Gringonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46515879755287783182009-07-17T17:44:22.360+01:002009-07-17T17:44:22.360+01:00Joe,pardon my ignorance, but Voldemort,Bernanke, e...Joe,pardon my ignorance, but Voldemort,Bernanke, et.al notwithstanding, are you really saying that it "doesn't matter" that corporate revenues across the economy are down 57% y-o-y? or that we are facing 10% unemployment, or that we are looking at a 1.3 trillion fiscal deficit this year? Seems we are back to the old Perception vs.reality question arent we?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17796957831110935448noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37062047151318399442009-07-17T17:14:13.711+01:002009-07-17T17:14:13.711+01:00China's State Administration for Foreign Excha...China's State Administration for Foreign Exchange (SAFE.) Search for "Voldemort" in the search bar and you'll find the genesis of the term.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32688911024416478822009-07-17T17:09:34.611+01:002009-07-17T17:09:34.611+01:00I'd also like to ask a rather stupid question....I'd also like to ask a rather stupid question. I read this blog a lot, but who, exactly, is Voldemort?<br /><br />Thanks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44253232983434851342009-07-17T16:34:39.913+01:002009-07-17T16:34:39.913+01:00I had DGDF in for "Dollar Gone, Dollar Fucked...I had DGDF in for "Dollar Gone, Dollar Fucked" ;-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69602888438543060502009-07-17T16:00:16.654+01:002009-07-17T16:00:16.654+01:00Agree its about macro and not micro and perhaps to...Agree its about macro and not micro and perhaps to some degree specifically about money creation and money flows - but those are definately fundamental factors. If governments decide to reflate then that needs to be part of the market call as a fundamental pro. Just my opinion.Fredrikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03350300665522582204noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69030928464622038012009-07-17T15:47:23.752+01:002009-07-17T15:47:23.752+01:00These markets aren't about fundamentals so how...These markets aren't about fundamentals so how Google or Citi cooks the books is irrelevant. This market is about money creation and money flows. Don't waste your time trying to figure out earnings or when Roubini thinks we'll see GDP growth. It doesn't matter.Joehttp://alhambrainvestments.com/blognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15171996508837745512009-07-17T14:56:49.324+01:002009-07-17T14:56:49.324+01:00My advice is to focus on the bottom line after all...My advice is to focus on the bottom line after all costs for purposes of equity valuation and determining long term corporate performance. For short term trading and understanding the quick look on a quarterly statement I recommend to investigate what is being included in consensus numbers before comparing it with what has been delivered. Make sure you are comparing apples with apples. The rules for what can and cannot be treated as one off isn't clear to me and i doubt to anyone else either. I would assume people will try to use it to their advantage as with most things else - dealing with wall street is a bit like dealing with a used carsalesman. Buyers beware.Fredrikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03350300665522582204noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8550061677348780532009-07-17T14:46:05.457+01:002009-07-17T14:46:05.457+01:00With all these companies reporting earnings before...With all these companies reporting earnings before expenses and losses -- are the CEOs trying gain our confidence or lose it?<br /><br />I don't see a real market bottom (as in the beginning of an authentic uptrend) until companies start reporting honest earningsGregnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38147118629526974522009-07-17T14:12:52.102+01:002009-07-17T14:12:52.102+01:00Thanks Fredrik. What does it say about the spin m...Thanks Fredrik. What does it say about the spin machine when employee comp costs are deemed to be "extraordinary", but, say, the sale of Smith Barney is not deemd to be a one-off?Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82916581322055487892009-07-17T13:20:16.523+01:002009-07-17T13:20:16.523+01:00macro man - re google the extraordinary items is ...macro man - re google the extraordinary items is a known in advance so analysts strip it out for clarity, so the eps consensus ex items was $5.36 vs cons $5.06, the upside was about 2% better operating margins versus consensus(they delivered a margin of 46% vs consensus 44%). If you want to talk including items then consensus was $4.31 and they delivered $4.66. The ex items were stock compensation costs. Hope this helps.Fredrikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03350300665522582204noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56132310478377957372009-07-17T12:40:29.188+01:002009-07-17T12:40:29.188+01:00"dollar going down forever""dollar going down forever"Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76206845574134976292009-07-17T12:20:18.374+01:002009-07-17T12:20:18.374+01:00pardon the stupid question but what does DGDF stan...pardon the stupid question but what does DGDF stand for please?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78795223308550978322009-07-17T11:51:18.978+01:002009-07-17T11:51:18.978+01:00Anon, viz overnight jumps in things it the likes o...Anon, viz overnight jumps in things it the likes of myself that trade in Asian hours. <br /><br />Viz where this is all headed, I've got my puts on for BAC, C, and the retail names that are likely to be in trouble but am also getting longer my favorite EMs. <br /><br />As a guy with a CB/high yield background I can only say this: watch the EBITDA hit or miss. It may lie in accounting fraud cases but by and large for industrials its the real deal and is not subject to all the one-off BS that you see elsewhere. I've seen a few misses already, waiting for a few more. Alcoa may have taken a restructuring charge but has it also written off the actual plants that will never come back online (Point Comfort alumina, anyone?). Book values are absolute rubbish right now and anyone who hears an analyst talking about PBs and how stuff is cheap in the developed world should slap him around the chops.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82888442692815669362009-07-17T11:03:01.698+01:002009-07-17T11:03:01.698+01:00Did anyone else notice that everything's getti...Did anyone else notice that everything's getting more and more kafkaesque? How about this:<br /><br />"One morning, as Gregor Samsa was waking up from anxious dreams, he discovered that in his bed he had been changed into a monstrous gold bug."Gregor Samsanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29945546423844128852009-07-17T10:13:14.389+01:002009-07-17T10:13:14.389+01:00Nah, it's our Tiny friend. You hurt his feelin...Nah, it's our Tiny friend. You hurt his feelings.<br /><br />Roubini called for a 1% growth in 2010. I guess that's bully. I saw the E minis jump 100 pips two nights ago, abot 1am est. I mean jump,not climb, as in instantly. Last night it was the CL Nymex contract that did that. As far as I know, I am not given to visions. There is a ghost in the machine sir.<br /><br />HAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com