tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3263338873343043441..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The ECB protest in 3 picturesMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger87125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19950427870527757192015-04-20T00:53:00.891+01:002015-04-20T00:53:00.891+01:00whats the problem? it isn't negative yet - I s...whats the problem? it isn't negative yet - I see further upside..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45218847176908178242015-04-20T00:27:27.005+01:002015-04-20T00:27:27.005+01:00The German yield curve is now flat at just above z...The German yield curve is now flat at just above zero from overnight to 10-year....<br /><br />Does anyone see this as a problem?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72475278602633132032015-04-19T15:56:50.563+01:002015-04-19T15:56:50.563+01:00This move by the PBoC just further highlights what...This move by the PBoC just further highlights what we've previously said: the major CBs are becoming increasingly desperate.<br /><br />I agree with washedup: more bid in equities. This is not going to end well at all.<br /><br />So Janet, you're at a poker table. You have a large number of chips to be sure, and now you threaten to raise (rates). Be careful, or someone will call you - and I, FunnyMoney, predict that you will be found wanting.FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38287486921485738352015-04-19T15:01:58.370+01:002015-04-19T15:01:58.370+01:00uh - oh - china RR cut - time to cook bear meat ag...uh - oh - china RR cut - time to cook bear meat again! <br />Notwithstanding the imminent rally in global equities on this news , I have to say that collectively, CB's (especially PBoC and BoJ) have increasingly been coming off less like Optimus Prime, and more like chicken little would look if he tried to cure his meth hangover with an overdose of ex.<br />Needless to say, that is a very long range signal, but ultimately CBs losing the plot and their credibility in the process is a bigger threat to equities than earnings recession, GDP contraction, interest rate increases, and world war III combined!<br /><br />washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15326338536851789572015-04-19T14:57:10.588+01:002015-04-19T14:57:10.588+01:00Edit - create deposit LIABILITIES out of thin air....Edit - create deposit <b>LIABILITIES</b> out of thin air.Danhttp://nwzpaper.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26425266645731600422015-04-19T11:37:50.186+01:002015-04-19T11:37:50.186+01:00Chinese equities go parabolic and you cut RR by 10...Chinese equities go parabolic and you cut RR by 100bps...the underlying economies are in the gutter.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5364618481241194582015-04-18T21:40:00.719+01:002015-04-18T21:40:00.719+01:00"I thought ECb just buys assets and creates d..."I thought ECb just buys assets and creates deposits out of thin air."<br /><br />...creates deposit out of thin air.Danhttp://nwzpaper.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47659188532016851592015-04-18T14:33:49.414+01:002015-04-18T14:33:49.414+01:00The . at the end of the address is a problem, try ...The . at the end of the address is a problem, try this.<br /><br />http://eepurl.com/bkfs3vJohnLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16277794221279494655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72846650096272548942015-04-18T14:29:24.631+01:002015-04-18T14:29:24.631+01:00I believe the old saying applies to Greece. If you...I believe the old saying applies to Greece. If you owe the bank a $1000 you've got a problem, if you owe the bank $1,000,000 they've got a problem. <br />I don't see the advantage of Greece exiting on it's own. <br />The write downs will just need to be sufficient to allow current income to support remaining debt.<br /><br />Now is the current volatility all post expiration or are other stresses being priced in.<br />Here is a great chart roll of some resent market action <br /><br />The Daily Shot; April 18, 2015: Global Macro Currents: http://eepurl.com/bkfs3v. JohnLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16277794221279494655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47795823966754346042015-04-18T11:20:51.872+01:002015-04-18T11:20:51.872+01:00Checkmate.
Correct. There were many reasons I did...Checkmate.<br /><br />Correct. There were many reasons I didn't want the debate ..primarily it was friday night and I was going out and preferred that option to embarking on a huge debate. Have fun.<br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64040294700923566812015-04-18T07:53:17.657+01:002015-04-18T07:53:17.657+01:00"Ok.. whatever"
That's what I say wh..."Ok.. whatever"<br />That's what I say when I don't want the discussion for whatever reason. Fair enough ,but tin that case I'll just leave you and I think Abee to work it out for yourself I'm not here to take shit from anyone any time.<br />I'll join Nico.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40866856311655547712015-04-18T04:26:37.121+01:002015-04-18T04:26:37.121+01:00Beautiful delegergaing, sorry.
And how does QE h...Beautiful delegergaing, sorry. <br /><br />And how does QE hit the public balance sheet, checkmate? Except the small amount of interest that is earned on holdngs and distributed to national central banks , which I guess can then go to the treasury. Otherwise I thought ECb just buys assets and creates deposits out of thin air. That's the other entry. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44963469165291743752015-04-18T04:00:50.807+01:002015-04-18T04:00:50.807+01:00Europe has chosen bazooka draghi as the savior of ...Europe has chosen bazooka draghi as the savior of their problems. Who knows if it works as perfectly as it did in the US ( according to Dalio at least ). If ECb can buy Greek bonds the problem is solved, if not we find out very soon. There is no leadership in Europe. Yes it sends a bad precedent for sometime in the future when another anarchist party gets elected, but probably not near term ( so I hear in Spain ). <br /><br />There is a tail risk when Greece goes. But it can't be a total surprise to anyone. ( though I sorta thought the same thing about Lehman ). Any smart Greek money should have a contingency plan already made. <br /><br />Yes QE has made the euro trade very crowded but they also have no way out of it. They are gonna keep rates negative until it gets better or the expirment blows up. So unless it blows up, the only game is to buy risk assets. <br /><br />And if Europe really blows up, sell everything. Maybe even SHCOMP, which is rallying bc China is reforming and ppl are front running index funds who will be forced to buy...though this is happening when estimates are falling and the economy is slowing. Now that's a casino. <br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10377316485451190242015-04-18T01:57:46.993+01:002015-04-18T01:57:46.993+01:00lew-ser, fired from citi!lew-ser, fired from citi!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26617173720531925492015-04-18T01:39:58.080+01:002015-04-18T01:39:58.080+01:00Weidmann spits in Lew's face...
“It would be ...Weidmann spits in Lew's face...<br /><br />“It would be absurd to discuss whether German competitiveness should be reduced to narrow the current-account surplus,” Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in Washington on Friday.<br /><br />What has Lew all fired up lately? First Japan and now Germany?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68845607786735926952015-04-18T01:36:26.165+01:002015-04-18T01:36:26.165+01:00"When the Grexit happens, it will be on a wee..."When the Grexit happens, it will be on a weekend."<br /><br />Never happen. They don't "work" weekends and besides, the hookers and limo drivers are off on weekends. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69424630648805056932015-04-17T22:48:15.546+01:002015-04-17T22:48:15.546+01:00DX kissed 97 this morning at 6am EDT, which is the...DX kissed 97 this morning at 6am EDT, which is the 50 day average, any<br />break below that and we are in a whole new FX ball game, ladies and<br />gentlemen. The obvious trigger for such FX regime change would be some<br />form of Grextension compromise leading to a screaming squeeze in EURUSD.<br /><br />With German 10s now at 8 bps, one does really feel that the Greek<br />Panto has become extremely tiresome and it's time to bring the curtain<br />down so that punters can stop doing really rather silly things and a<br />measure of sanity can return to capital markets. In terms of the above discussion, it's clear where Funny Money and I come down. It's far cheaper to kick the can, Germany can do it with pocket change, than to risk a Grexit that might open the Pandora's Box of potential Porxit, Spaxit and so on...<br /><br />End the madness, Wolfgang. Go back to Offenburg and retire....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61617828513200257982015-04-17T22:05:37.667+01:002015-04-17T22:05:37.667+01:00@washedup 8:02
Re: 3) Correct :)@washedup 8:02<br />Re: 3) Correct :)FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87429535462847751052015-04-17T21:00:13.017+01:002015-04-17T21:00:13.017+01:00But, based on the rally in EUR, it seems that fx t...But, based on the rally in EUR, it seems that fx traders are betting they are just going to kick the can again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75902050303370064012015-04-17T20:53:03.551+01:002015-04-17T20:53:03.551+01:00As of February 2015:
-€53 bln bilateral loans
-€...As of February 2015: <br /><br />-€53 bln bilateral loans<br />-€142 bln EFSF loans<br />-€27 bln ECB loans<br /><br />Based on that I'd say that the path of least political resistance would be to keep the can going as if all those get wiped out it would just be a, multiple times larger political disaster that no politician with half-a-brain would want to ever voluntarily encounter. Not to mention the boat loads of Eurocrats who should be terrified right now for their own sake, jobs and future benefits and do everything they can to keep the can going as well.<br /><br />If I'm wrong anyway I just can't see anything net positive happening from the (broken record warning) --exit for either EZ or her trade partners. Certainly it's important to understand that it won't fix anything and it is going to be a choice which will have to be made again in the future as well. And next time they will be the real heavyweight components which are going to be final knockout (Spain, Italy, France, Portugal...).<br /><br />Happy clappy yields and QE will limit the contagion short term but it's just a jack in the box waiting for another opportunity. In fact low yields are probably the only thing that's holding this thing together as there is no political coherency to speak of, which should have btw actually been preceding everything else, certainly the monetary union. In that context I find it very odd and hypocritical to exclude Greece from the QE party because there are boat loads of countries which are really not that different in terms of "morality" and spending habits, given the opportunity.<br /><br />Personally I think Eurocrats and national politicians have the weaker hand, and will not be willing to play Russian roulette and will muster up something to kick the can. If I'm wrong then mercy on my soul as it's going to be a bloodbath, otherwise just cage rattling.<br /><br />Now probably the biggest challenge is to decide whether you are over or under estimating these guys who "should" have quite a lot of reasons to be worried.hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67584849006030389512015-04-17T20:02:30.598+01:002015-04-17T20:02:30.598+01:00Nico - regarding the 'greek issue', I am a...Nico - regarding the 'greek issue', I am actually intrigued by whether this market is<br />1) thinking this is the usual fun and games and posturing to result in basically nothing (fairly confident that's Left's view), or<br />2) thinking so what if it happens, some small portfolios here and there might blow up, but when someone like warren buffett actually advocates an exit how on earth could it be that bad, or<br />3) thinking that if it happened and was indeed temporarily bad, it will panic CB's into doing a monumental hail mary where they will send the gestapo to your doorstep with a briefcase full of cash and force you to buy equities whether you like it or not (fairly confident that is Funnymoney's view) or<br />4) Not thinking at all, and we are stepping into a twilight zone with major faults where a couple of chipmunks in Tanzania may shake a berry tree and set off a set of events that results in a global risk off bloodbath <br />I wonder, I wonder...<br /><br />washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46826034449867302522015-04-17T19:45:52.417+01:002015-04-17T19:45:52.417+01:00"When the Grexit happens, it will be on a wee..."When the Grexit happens, it will be on a weekend. The banks will be closed, parliament will be called into emergency session, and a packet of laws will be passed. And this needs to be on a Saturday to avoid wholesale capital flight the moment that parliament is called into session, were it a weekday. This leaves only a few possible dates. May 2nd is too soon, and the 16th is too late. That leaves May 9th."<br /><br />"They’ve made the April payment, but simply do not have the money for the May or June payments."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86769745783235975372015-04-17T19:33:48.584+01:002015-04-17T19:33:48.584+01:00"While at first sight German national debt is..."While at first sight German national debt is a ‘mere’ 70% of GDP, add the promises it has made to its banks, and the number comes in at a horrific 222%. Not far behind comes the Netherlands with a similar ‘official’ national debt at 73% of GDP. But the contingent liabilities are 115%, making a pretty nasty mountain of 188%.<br /><br />The Number One and Number Two top contingent liability millstones in the EU are – by miles – Germany and the Netherlands. Now let me see … who are the two chaps working hardest to stop the Greeks and their contagious banks from going their own way? Why, none other than German finance minister Schäuble and Dutch finance minister Dijsselbloem. The third prong of Troika2 is of course the ECB’s Italian Mario Draghi. Without any contingencies at all, Italy’s national debt is 132% of GDP. Add its 45% of contingents, and this too adds up to 178% of GDP."<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80415319343022407292015-04-17T19:30:53.017+01:002015-04-17T19:30:53.017+01:00"Only about 8% of the bailout funds Athens is..."Only about 8% of the bailout funds Athens is now on the hook for, actually went to Greece; the other 92% was used to save major European and American banks." Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52244929012848175652015-04-17T19:12:56.755+01:002015-04-17T19:12:56.755+01:00this will be my last post here, for the sake of fi...this will be my last post here, for the sake of finishing a mission: you guys continue to completely underestimate the Greek issue and its repercussions<br /><br />Greece will set a precedent in Europe. Good luck to those who buy the dips because what? 45% bounce in Dax was not enough for you?<br /><br />or were you just too late and hoping to be let in at a discount. The repricing of Europe HAS been done. Good luck if you insist on crashing a party here, that everyone is leaving<br /><br />just mind the tape, caution, caution, CAUTION, fade caution at your own risk.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.com