tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3079115319961892234..comments2024-03-28T00:23:22.838+00:00Comments on Macro Man: A tale in five bullet pointsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger84125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19592810424842497082016-01-22T11:06:32.604+00:002016-01-22T11:06:32.604+00:00Equities up +2% to +5% overnight after my "al...Equities up +2% to +5% overnight after my "all in" trade. Not bad for a few hours work.<br />jbtfdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32600560834834235612016-01-22T09:54:21.025+00:002016-01-22T09:54:21.025+00:00Indeed, LB ran across the battlefield and the mach...Indeed, LB ran across the battlefield and the machine gun nests only managed a flesh wound ... we hope. Still early days, though, but today's swoon does seem to suggest that Mr. Market has decided that perhaps the world is not ending just this minute. Difficult one to call. If sentiment really flips here, seasonality suggests an absolute storming melt-up into May, but we will see. <br /><br />Six weeks for the market to dream up easing scenarios for Draghi to disappoint in March ... ;) <br /><br />Sold some U.S. names and flipped into some turds of turds in the U.K. which should benefit if the market really decides to climb. Also, had to ease down the U.S. exposure, because as a GBP investor I really don't want to be hugely overweight USD here given the obvious counter rally which is about to take out punters in GBPUSD. <br /><br />Still 40% cash ... though. <br /><br />CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72585243507537701372016-01-22T06:47:13.700+00:002016-01-22T06:47:13.700+00:00Good call sir and damn glad to see it too. At lea...Good call sir and damn glad to see it too. At least that part of markets are still functioning properly;)Coreynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2167614502298964502016-01-22T05:49:02.200+00:002016-01-22T05:49:02.200+00:00Spanish face-ripper today +4%. Japanese face-rippe...Spanish face-ripper today +4%. Japanese face-ripper overnight +5%.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84649414814989367382016-01-22T03:24:10.490+00:002016-01-22T03:24:10.490+00:00Thanks mr beach. With 2% of the volume hey could b...Thanks mr beach. With 2% of the volume hey could by something like 10-20% of the long term buyers in any stock as a lot of trades are just also front running these days. So that seems huge and a likely reason why stocks do perform poorly when they stop. <br /><br />Guess who is buying back stocks at prices below current book value, it's mReits which can basically liquidate their portfolio at market. But hey the world is ending (apparently no one told that to the repo or intra bank markets yet, but I digress ) and you should keep selling these stocks down. I'd love to buy an. mReit at 30% of book. I can give you more examples too but I'd love to hear some thoughts on why I'm wrong. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46138972091843449882016-01-22T02:39:13.651+00:002016-01-22T02:39:13.651+00:00This is a story from March of last year. But the...This is a story from March of last year. But the datapoint about corporate buyback blackout periods is still relevant.<br /><br />"Buybacks, which reached a monthly record in February and have surged so much they make up about 2 percent of daily volume, are customarily suspended during the five weeks before companies report quarterly results, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. With the busiest part of first-quarter earnings seasons beginning in April, the blackout is getting started now." - <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-23/buyback-blackout-leaves-u-s-stocks-on-their-own-before-earnings" rel="nofollow">Buyback Blackout Leaves U.S. Stocks on Own Prior to Earnings</a><br /><br />MrBeachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8158674025469511482016-01-22T00:00:51.932+00:002016-01-22T00:00:51.932+00:00AB, frankly I'm sick of hearing that the world...AB, frankly I'm sick of hearing that the world is ending. It is an incredibly myopic, infantile, and egotistic view to believe that your small lifetime on this planet will somehow coincide with its end. Also, you don't ever have to be the first mouse, as long as you don't want the biggest piece of cheese. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90907805064850476322016-01-21T22:43:25.428+00:002016-01-21T22:43:25.428+00:00I am so sick of hearing TWINE and "this is no...I am so sick of hearing TWINE and "this is not 2008". Great, that is very helpful. Both of those were true going into 1974 and 1930.<br /><br />The global economy is more sickly than it was in 2007. Time will tell if the structure is more fragile or robust than in 2008. Given the amount of debt, I am skeptical that every weak spot has been reinforced. There are so many signals that the tide has turned on this bull. It doesn't mean that we crash, but I don't want to be the first mouse.<br /><br />Btw, everyone worries about Chinese currency volatility because the small increase in volatility killed the Sharpe ratio of very large carry trades. Those trades are unwinding and that is extracting a very large amount of liquidity from the system. Now the currency reflects the extent of the run. ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62209108579468425892016-01-21T22:19:40.539+00:002016-01-21T22:19:40.539+00:00long - trailing from Estoxx 2846 yesterday. I only...long - trailing from Estoxx 2846 yesterday. I only worked on 2% day trips this month but yesterday felt like capitulation on a satisfying spike in volume, so willing to trail that long with stop at entry. Might be a slow and painful process there is a real trauma on the market. 1900 on spoos and 3000 on estoxx are the first and big hurdlesNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27975770141034890242016-01-21T22:16:19.457+00:002016-01-21T22:16:19.457+00:00@CV The blunt tool of further cuts from the ECB an...@CV The blunt tool of further cuts from the ECB and additional QE will do little to solve the problem of insolvent european banks. For the record, im not in the 'This is 2008' camp but the banking sector is starting to look ugly. The game is up on extend and pretend, lets hope the Italians can strike a viable deal this weekend that doesnt eventulally involve bail ins Cyprus style. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58984120466248092562016-01-21T22:06:44.582+00:002016-01-21T22:06:44.582+00:00Nico G, cool. How about equities? They rally soon ...Nico G, cool. How about equities? They rally soon I think...jbtfdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76406652902353554772016-01-21T21:59:42.893+00:002016-01-21T21:59:42.893+00:00 jbtfd
yes i had a premature entry at 33 and too... jbtfd <br /><br />yes i had a premature entry at 33 and took another clip yesterday under 29 so have a respectable size at 31+<br /><br />i am offering 36.50 - the level of the last break (the gap and go down on the 6th)Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46803825244349240372016-01-21T21:50:39.990+00:002016-01-21T21:50:39.990+00:00a monster hourly candle 28.29-29.94 (on March CL)...a monster hourly candle 28.29-29.94 (on March CL) with 125+k volume today<br /><br />this is EXACTLY what happened on that first impulse when they brought oil down from 147 in July 2008. I am talking my book, but big players stepped in today and an intermediate low seems to be inNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14835692367320852282016-01-21T21:49:33.121+00:002016-01-21T21:49:33.121+00:00Nico G, you long here? I'm tempted to go all-i...Nico G, you long here? I'm tempted to go all-in...jbtfdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80404354024845113932016-01-21T21:48:13.753+00:002016-01-21T21:48:13.753+00:00Schlumberger fires 10,000, announces $10 billion b...Schlumberger fires 10,000, announces $10 billion buyback... thank f*ck! I wish CEOs would fire all workers in the US and buy back 99.9% of outstanding stock, then the spoos would go up, we'd see a massive wealth effect and all be richer. Plus no need to go to work, so lots of leisure time to spend our new-found wealth! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38434242191955404232016-01-21T21:47:02.846+00:002016-01-21T21:47:02.846+00:00watch oil here, knock knock at resistance of Janua...watch oil here, knock knock at resistance of January channel and ready to go. If successful momo traders should pile in for a quick 10% upNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16050762025818804042016-01-21T21:42:45.514+00:002016-01-21T21:42:45.514+00:00yep - and Hang Seng trading at same book value as ...yep - and Hang Seng trading at same book value as 1998 - just before the government litterally bought in to stop the bleeding. Years later they were sitting on ginormous profitsNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28483543179658907552016-01-21T21:31:20.224+00:002016-01-21T21:31:20.224+00:00Just looking at the biggest cap stock, AAPL. Using...Just looking at the biggest cap stock, AAPL. Using bloomy estimates for flat 2016-2018 Free Cash Flow (way better than earnings, IMO) currently trading for 15% yield! <br /><br />If the company wasnt so big it would be a screaming buy. <br /><br />Berkshire trading 1.25x Book, right close to where Buffett said he will start buying back stock. <br /><br />I dont have positions in either but just something to think about when you think these markets are massively inflated. For sure earnings can turn down and make current valuation expensive (as earnings have a strong correlation with ISM which is now indicating recession) but I think anyone expecting a massive drop is a little too trigger happy. For that to happen you would need to see a significant negative feedback loop to downgrade earnings/eco growth.<br /><br />I'm not saying go long here, just trying to put it in perspective. TWINE abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23015246234408162722016-01-21T21:28:47.693+00:002016-01-21T21:28:47.693+00:00I get so tired of Soros calling me from Davos abou...I get so tired of Soros calling me from Davos about how he should be positioned in the market...sheeesh...just let it go to voice mail now....<br /><br />Lefty, I'm gonna give him your cell phone number next time he calls...you can tell your valet what to if he gets to be a pest! :)Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83514117998191719892016-01-21T20:45:22.547+00:002016-01-21T20:45:22.547+00:00From Davos:
Aramco's president Mr Khalid Al-F...From Davos:<br /><br />Aramco's president Mr Khalid Al-Falih brushed aside the threat from renewable energy and the COP21 deal to cut carbon emissions:<br /><br />"I don't think renewables or pressures from climate change are going to significantly reduce the long-term demand for oil. If electric vehicles take over, where does the electricity come from?" <br /><br />He also said: "We can take whatever the market serves us. If prices stay low, we will be able to withstand it for a long time. We have the lowest cost of production on the planet by a big margin, and Saudi Aramco has zero debt on its balance sheet." <br /><br />“I do feel the market overshot on the low side and by year-end I bet prices will be higher than today.”<br /><br />Worries about China are overblown: "China’s slowdown affects heavy industries that use coal, not oil."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71275362420578785642016-01-21T20:44:48.198+00:002016-01-21T20:44:48.198+00:00Soros commented at Davos that he is short Spoo'...Soros commented at Davos that he is short Spoo's and long interest rates, betting on deflation. Also he says china hard landing is occurring in real time.<br /><br />Today's bounce is less than I had hoped for. At least HYG is strong. I want to sell some rallies but I think we need to see something first... Also earnings are not coming out so bad, next week is the heart of the season. Tech will be in focus.abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69091361510083779082016-01-21T20:36:39.820+00:002016-01-21T20:36:39.820+00:001890/1900 is still the number to beat on your spoo...1890/1900 is still the number to beat on your spoos. Good luckNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16737745709268542942016-01-21T20:35:05.182+00:002016-01-21T20:35:05.182+00:00The Big Five oil producers (in barrels/day) are:
...The Big Five oil producers (in barrels/day) are:<br /><br />U.S 11 million <br />Saudi Arabia 11 million <br />Russia 11 million <br />China 4 million <br />Canada 4 millionAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36430298409685124552016-01-21T20:32:08.965+00:002016-01-21T20:32:08.965+00:00Bounce or no bounce I'm moving to TN with the ...Bounce or no bounce I'm moving to TN with the following observations;<br />-It doesn't seem like most people are positioned for a slow or fast decline.<br />-As Nico said shorts do provide a bid to the market in covering rally's which we are not really seeing.<br />-The service economy is that bastion of strength that keeps things chugging along. Services rely on consumption, which relies on confidence which is reduced in greater proportion (to an industrial economy which relies on longer term decision making and "level" headed C suite execs) when the market declines. ie. reverse wealth effect is in, well, effect.<br />-I'd rather have limited longs on EM/Oil complex than exposure to S&P which just feels like it is riding a unicycle atop razor-wire stretched between two high rises.<br />-Funny how one quarter ago the market was all like (in regards to Fed): hurry up and get on with it just rip the band aide off already and now after a 15% decline is screaming like a little child to hurry up and put it back on. Even if they eventually do, at this point they are still evaluating the impact to things like lending which will take more than a quarter to come to a conclusion on, let alone reverse prior logic. They should have done what I and many others assumed would be the logical thing to do, which means tightening would be the reverse of how it was implemented - ie balance sheet first then rates.Coreynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2256849294754802552016-01-21T19:56:43.990+00:002016-01-21T19:56:43.990+00:00AB - I get your larger point, but I am bit surpris...AB - I get your larger point, but I am bit surprised a bit in that NASDAQ seems fairly valued at 20X - I presume the russell issue is from the small E&Ps that are duly on the ropes. <br />The next act in this drama boils down to whether the ill winds from North Dakota reach silicon valley - we shall see. washedupnoreply@blogger.com