tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3054551632777819069..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Kerwang MarketsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63257076888676513692012-05-10T09:06:58.367+01:002012-05-10T09:06:58.367+01:00c SAYS'
Amp,
Can understand you view,but not e...c SAYS'<br />Amp,<br />Can understand you view,but not everything out there is a "knife".<br />For example,I've been backing basic food sellers like SBRY and TSCO in the weeks behind because these guys could find the blowoff in comms and now oil a big help in holding margins moreover people still need to eat.Meanwhile they pay off around 5% at these levels.<br />In other places like Japan /India/China same story for me,but also their banks for the most part are not up to their necks in crap so any monetary loosening will help them and I'm sure that loosening will be on the way much sooner than later now.<br />For me we are now firmly in a game not of all boats being floated ,but one of picking and running then repeat and wash based upon seasonlity and policy expectations.<br />I also have limit orders to be filled on energy ,but not yet !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32527487555300093482012-05-09T14:21:22.488+01:002012-05-09T14:21:22.488+01:00Make that DXY hovering just above 80... 10y dippin...Make that DXY hovering just above 80... 10y dipping below 1.80, 30y dipping below 3.00. Somebody must really want saefty today. Those punters over there who would like to buy my US 30y bonds..... YOURS!Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19567714037377677122012-05-09T14:12:19.016+01:002012-05-09T14:12:19.016+01:00Those of us who like TEF etc... we will have a cha...Those of us who like TEF etc... we will have a chance to buy more..... DXY still holding at 80 or below.<br /><br />China data overnight and a much awaited BoE QE announcement may finally start to pull the world out of its plunge. Got an eye on the emerging markets today for a punt. Happy to sell more of my US long bonds to those who want them!<br /><br />Fasten your seat belts...Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70213593160756731492012-05-09T14:07:01.109+01:002012-05-09T14:07:01.109+01:00trolls came out from under FTSE bridge.. brl real ...trolls came out from under FTSE bridge.. brl real making new highs (banks there getting it and a dovish CB doenst help).. but the stress indicators, bund and short term Eurodollar (reds I guess) starting to move lower<br /><br />thinking of running to hide for cover very soon .. short XLF maybe to cover my high beta book... or HYG (just in bigger size) as it should follow eventuallyabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83482319632891042952012-05-09T12:41:31.867+01:002012-05-09T12:41:31.867+01:00c SAYS'
Looks like I called that one wrongc SAYS'<br />Looks like I called that one wrongAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54356406213350455342012-05-09T00:49:44.033+01:002012-05-09T00:49:44.033+01:00LB,
This YEAR might be a long grind, but the sky h...LB,<br />This YEAR might be a long grind, but the sky hasn't fallen yet. Thanks for TEF.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6285886224213493622012-05-08T21:30:55.481+01:002012-05-08T21:30:55.481+01:00The SPoos & Nazzy 100 still holding March NFP ...The SPoos & Nazzy 100 still holding March NFP week lows , methinks once that breaks the range is set in....had that week as a bit of an overthrow in real-time...technical reasons of course.<br /><br />Oops!!..don't forget the fundamentals...not good...how does it get better?..Amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44953291571627963672012-05-08T21:25:29.419+01:002012-05-08T21:25:29.419+01:00C' is spot on there.
Abee, I feel your pain, ...C' is spot on there.<br /><br />Abee, I feel your pain, re GDX.<br /><br />LB's equities were up on the day. I do think there are some outstanding European opportunities out there for those with cash and intestinal fortitude.<br /><br />Sold some US fixed income, seemed only prudent to take profits. We'll see what tomorrow brings. This week might be a long grind.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78854304110348712762012-05-08T21:14:41.965+01:002012-05-08T21:14:41.965+01:00c SAYS'
So 'the world is ending' again...c SAYS'<br />So 'the world is ending' again thanks to Europe,but the US markets rally off the back session ! Once again I think we might get a bit of a short squeeze for the latecomers.No,I don't equate this with bullishness,just an equity market that still has no excrutiating reason to sell off madly.Tiresome to pick and run,but that's what I think we have here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7568005389445648832012-05-08T20:02:39.772+01:002012-05-08T20:02:39.772+01:00hmm iDVY yielding 6.3 vs DVY 3.3hmm iDVY yielding 6.3 vs DVY 3.3abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81385539389911681612012-05-08T19:44:31.931+01:002012-05-08T19:44:31.931+01:00gdx has been the worst trading product I have ever...gdx has been the worst trading product I have ever seen. Always manages to squeeze everyone out. I hope we get a broad market crash and the GDX gets taken down with it. would be a good buy then. as of now I am stuck in my small position.. some of the juniors looking pretty cheap but they are the ones that get washed out the most in a general sell off. <br /><br />is there a similar DVY for European high yielders?abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76971167832084114512012-05-08T18:42:48.210+01:002012-05-08T18:42:48.210+01:00You can make an argument that this lot will help t...You can make an argument that this lot will help the bullish case:<br /><br />THURSDAY, MAY 10<br />7 a.m. Bank of England asset-buy size GBP325 bln<br />9:30 p.m. China CPI Apr 3.6%<br />FRIDAY, MAY 11<br />1:30 a.m. China industrial production, YoY Apr. 11.9%<br /><br />Easing Chinese inflation and any kind of decent industrial production number probably makes China a buy. Whether you believe it or not!Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63330361919826913582012-05-08T17:55:45.696+01:002012-05-08T17:55:45.696+01:00Tradebot called the move in Treasuries very nicely...Tradebot called the move in Treasuries very nicely, and we have some long bonds, so that's working. Check. US fixed income (AGG) also steady. Check. A reward for boring old fart asset allocation.<br /><br />Our single name European and US equities (REITs, telecoms, big pharma, even big cap energy) performing OK. Check.<br /><br />Biggest Kerwang move for LB has indeed been GDX. Head bowed, self flagellation. My bad. Quite possibly this has been a hedge fund hotel, and it is now liquidation time.<br /><br />We have been picking through the debris for a few more accidental high yield donkeys, and there are plenty out there. Europe is full of 10%-ers and there are a few beaten up dogs in the US now too.<br /><br />US HY credit not looking too bad. World Not Ending.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58879854981201308482012-05-08T15:59:46.929+01:002012-05-08T15:59:46.929+01:00Ol' Dirty Bastard says
Gentlemen, thanks for ...Ol' Dirty Bastard says<br /><br />Gentlemen, thanks for the insight so far. Especially the "they are not dirt cheap by any means" part confirms my guts feeling (which says otherwise that you shouldn't jump on the S&P bandwagon for the long term until we see it in the 900 range).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53832171053983765382012-05-08T15:18:06.660+01:002012-05-08T15:18:06.660+01:00Gold miners are starting to look attractive on a f...Gold miners are starting to look attractive on a forward P/CF of about 8-10x for majors. On DCF they look expensive unless you use the industry 5% discount rate. However unlike most equities, you model miners with no terminal value, you just take all the expected cf of the mine(s) out into the future. You will notice most stocks value is in the terminal part.<br /><br />I like em here, but they are not dirt cheap by any means. Be weary of P/Nav charts showing historical relationshipsabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54762469565770003642012-05-08T15:00:36.835+01:002012-05-08T15:00:36.835+01:00c you are right - lots of people traded GDX as a b...c you are right - lots of people traded GDX as a basket to hedge inflation. Its a few steps removed and has serious issues to be discussed in a post tomorrow. Some of us are short, have been short for a while. Hard to see much good in Aquarius Platinum's future for instance.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41984064010396912672012-05-08T14:53:04.069+01:002012-05-08T14:53:04.069+01:00NEM looking nice with a stop just under 40.NEM looking nice with a stop just under 40.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8785412395172741282012-05-08T09:38:40.480+01:002012-05-08T09:38:40.480+01:00c SAYS'
"What's happening" is a ...c SAYS'<br />"What's happening" is a process whereupon the market has moved from tryng to hedge against inflation via PM to hedging for capital preservation via the dollar and treasuries and that is not bullish for pm and gold miners.<br />There's more than enough context available for them to both go further down.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12125573592950249572012-05-08T08:35:41.033+01:002012-05-08T08:35:41.033+01:00Ol' Dirty Bastard says
Leftback, do you have ...Ol' Dirty Bastard says<br /><br />Leftback, do you have some links or other color re gold miners ? GOLDS / XAU is at record highs, otoh gold miners still look expensive (looking at 5y or 10y Shiller PEs). I'm not a commodities guy but try to get my head around what's happening.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64661401309180563742012-05-07T22:09:25.070+01:002012-05-07T22:09:25.070+01:00Claus,
I think Greece has always been fascist und...Claus,<br /><br />I think Greece has always been fascist underneath (one law for the poor, no taxes on the wealthy) but was pretending to be democratic for a while. This is unfortunately true in more countries than most realize.<br /><br />Positioning is indeed very skewed towards a stronger USD, as we are being told a lot about the strong US recovery and decoupling, and often this is from the same people who were rampant gold bugs and haters of Bucky at DXY 73.50 last year. <br /><br />In addition, nobody and I mean NOBODY, not Gold Trading Expert Dennis Gartman, not ANYONE, likes the gold miners, which all makes LB go.... hmmm....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8913406993853915102012-05-07T18:50:24.318+01:002012-05-07T18:50:24.318+01:00Well played on shorting the energy stocks LB, they...Well played on shorting the energy stocks LB, they have been looking juicy for a while. <br /><br />As for the EURUSD and the DXY positioning is heavily skewed towards the EURUSD moving into the 1.15s territory. And it should ... facists taking over Greece and 1 trillion in LTRO liquidity sloshing around, but I can't help but feel that it will hold 1.30 and flush out some of the shorties here. <br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2862250809897465322012-05-07T17:37:30.048+01:002012-05-07T17:37:30.048+01:00Today's market seems to be mainly bollards, in...Today's market seems to be mainly bollards, in the US, TMM. Possibly not quite done working off some of the irrational exuberance in energy/tech and the latest IPO of Kerwang.com?<br /><br />LB is watching EURUSD 1.30 and DXY 80, and is fairly optimistic as long as both limits hold. Spain is now acting like a market that is going to take off before long, not melt down.<br /><br />We did hit on a good seasonality trade last week by shorting energy stocks. <br /><br />[Blind squirrel, acorn etc......]Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10330278033713683002012-05-07T14:55:56.133+01:002012-05-07T14:55:56.133+01:00wow the trolls under the 1350 s&p bridge didnt...wow the trolls under the 1350 s&p bridge didnt come out to play.. yet<br /><br />so confused stillabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29245487680949629912012-05-05T10:49:36.149+01:002012-05-05T10:49:36.149+01:00C says'
Very recently I saw two data sets that...C says'<br />Very recently I saw two data sets that made me go "Kerwang". The disparity between open interest on managed funds in Oil/Energy and commercials and the numbers of SP futures owned by small retail .<br />Smells like a meatgrinder situation to me. The expression "Yours" comes to mind.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45239863265244908682012-05-04T17:56:32.767+01:002012-05-04T17:56:32.767+01:00LB for once has hedges working perfectly. Short en...LB for once has hedges working perfectly. Short energy stocks and US small caps helping to offset a bit of nastiness in the European part of the portfolio, not to mention the yellow metal extractors. Going back in the bar now for the rest of the day....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.com