tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2946073086004131422..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Friday RamblingsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79177413126681006812013-05-15T19:01:19.917+01:002013-05-15T19:01:19.917+01:00To be fair the Swerv is probably right, so is Gide...To be fair the Swerv is probably right, so is Gideon. Besides, 15k is well over my transfer earnings. OK, I'll take 14k, contractor no bens. <br /><br />Other skills in order of usefulness:<br />-Doing what i'm told<br />-Night security guard / cleaner, could work out well if you aren't in serviced offices.<br />-Foot courier; City-W.End i reckon i could give a horse a run for its money...in traffic<br />-Speak English<br />-Arithmetic<br />-Data monkey work<br />-degree<br />-Markets knowledge<br /><br />Honestly, i don't even need a desk.rpnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10808856219707312002013-05-15T17:34:36.248+01:002013-05-15T17:34:36.248+01:00You wanna job for 15k? And Merv the Swerve sees an...You wanna job for 15k? And Merv the Swerve sees an improving economy from here? lolAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54437960099280569572013-05-15T16:59:20.782+01:002013-05-15T16:59:20.782+01:00gis' a job
I can do anything, back office/book...gis' a job<br />I can do anything, back office/booking/"data cleaning"/lunch run whatever.<br /><br />15krpnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65161632870074726732013-05-15T14:29:08.048+01:002013-05-15T14:29:08.048+01:00Look at that red-hot US economy go..... !!
Today&...Look at that red-hot US economy go..... !!<br /><br />Today's underwhelming data will probably put a floor under the Treasury market for a few days at least. Might even see a bit of a squeeze today, as a lot of the usual reflation suspects have been pounding the table lately. Now watch the housing numbers come in weaker than expected today and tomorrow, after we already have seen that mortgage applications slipped...<br /><br />When is the ASX going to follow the lead of the AUD? That turnaround in China doesn't seem to be coming, and Beijing isn't printing. Yet.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86971078445277801582013-05-15T14:03:43.644+01:002013-05-15T14:03:43.644+01:00We are thinking USDMXN is ripe for a shakeout here...We are thinking USDMXN is ripe for a shakeout here. <br /><br />A FX mind care to opine?<br /><br />DDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58775641142587325842013-05-15T12:37:18.328+01:002013-05-15T12:37:18.328+01:00Was just wondering of the divergence in some leadi...Was just wondering of the divergence in some leading indicators...<br /><br />I mean look at all the industrial metals, copper, aluminium, nickel and zinc. They have all been pretty much flushing down the toilet from the beginning of February. LME stocks have also been on the rise.<br /><br />Meanwhile most major stock indices have been telling a different story. US/Europe are up altough Shanghai is down from February. So China seems to be correlating more with the metals.<br /><br />Should one be worried about this in terms of global growth? Of course lower raw material prices should be good for input cost and profitability and all that, but then again, why are the prices (demand) getting lower when the stocks are going up? So seems like stock indices aren't be getting support atleast from metals. <br /><br />Also a link from the last post (Spoos earnings growth homing in on zero on a 2 year trend): http://i.imgur.com/Xw7c9gu.jpg <br /><br />I wonder how this will fit into the multiple expansion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1091160777796651352013-05-15T11:26:47.650+01:002013-05-15T11:26:47.650+01:00Oh, and AUD, at last!
And our AGBs outperforming...Oh, and AUD, at last! <br /><br />And our AGBs outperforming the global duration selloff as well.<br /><br />We will not get cocky, since this position cost us a lot on the way there but feels like this one has some ways to go.<br /><br />DDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55422697258656795852013-05-15T11:23:26.961+01:002013-05-15T11:23:26.961+01:00As explained wrt Fed rants earlier, we try not to ...As explained wrt Fed rants earlier, we try not to let a personal (let alone political) opinion get in the way of our assessment of price action.<br /><br />That being said, that tickling feeling in the underpants of precious metals zealots is something we are not going to deny enjoying. A lot. <br /><br />LB -- admission: we had some Teslas PA, but did not have the guts to carry them over the earnings call after what had already been a decent run. Hockey sticks are sadly not something we have ever been able to play.<br /><br />- DDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32301243006320851002013-05-14T21:38:08.298+01:002013-05-14T21:38:08.298+01:00Nice idea, Nico, or you could try getting long hig...Nice idea, Nico, or you could try getting long high yield bonds here ...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/5/13/high-yield-yields-less-than-treasuries-five-years-ago.html" rel="nofollow"> HY Now Yields Less than Treasuries in 2008 </a><br /><br /> Now that is the definition of reward-free risk.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86373009882781731362013-05-14T21:13:34.679+01:002013-05-14T21:13:34.679+01:00"Louis XIV levels of inequality"
fantas... "Louis XIV levels of inequality"<br /><br />fantastic - for the last two years i said we had gone back to 'medieval' gap in wealth but your rendering is just brilliant<br /><br />in my next life i'll be the current hooker in Cannes festival making $40,000 on some boat one night sucking some old, kind oil princes who still cannot believe their luck<br /><br />they should tip the CFTC guys who abandon any effort to regulate, more than those hookers.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45659926159851975982013-05-14T19:24:26.829+01:002013-05-14T19:24:26.829+01:00TSLA clearly had a blow-off top this week. After e...TSLA clearly had a blow-off top this week. After every short in the universe was Edward the Seconded....<br /><br /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/TSLA/charts" rel="nofollow"> TSLA Chart </a><br /><br />Wonder what it's like to be the last stooge to be a buyer in one of those things? We will never know.... b/c nobody will ever admit that they weren't "in it all the way from the breakout at $35..."Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41482258572347304492013-05-14T19:01:44.117+01:002013-05-14T19:01:44.117+01:00Time to short junk bonds?
FT: The Golden Age of ...Time to short junk bonds?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/d37b5afa-b99a-11e2-9a9f-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fd37b5afa-b99a-11e2-9a9f-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=" rel="nofollow"> FT: The Golden Age of Junk </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59904384948844670302013-05-14T18:13:35.357+01:002013-05-14T18:13:35.357+01:00PIMCO talking about reducing portfolio risk, reduc...PIMCO talking about reducing portfolio risk, reducing exposure to Italy, Spain, HY corporates etc...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-14/pimco-pares-risk-on-view-monetary-easing-distorts-global-markets.html" rel="nofollow"> PIMCO pares risk </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66935628257943715532013-05-14T17:08:58.849+01:002013-05-14T17:08:58.849+01:00Btw, we are aware that US housing is "en fueg...Btw, we are aware that US housing is "en fuego", (b/c we are told this every day on the TeeVee), which is obviously great news to all those who own thousands of recently acquired rental properties in Detroit, or who live in an underwater McMansion.<br /><br />This is also great for those noobs who are recently long the XHB, or who own related stocks like LL, Z, TRLA etc., b/c "housing is back". We salute all of you, your powers of groupthink, your late arrival at the party, and your piles of newly erected lumber.<br /><br />There is just one problem, chaps. Building growth would be expected to increase demand for lumber, so you'd think that lumber futures would be soaring, as they were in January through March. But they are not. In fact they are falling, and are down 20% since the March peak.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/LBK3" rel="nofollow"> Timber !! </a><br /><br />Longs might have to be careful this tree doesn't fall on them. We think there is some money to be made this summer in shorting a number of the housing related instruments mentioned above. It only takes one disappointing housing starts or new home sales number, or a FED release about tapering MBS purchases, and this pile of sticks is coming down like a Pulte Home in the path of a tornado.<br /><br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26322877423386266022013-05-14T15:42:43.796+01:002013-05-14T15:42:43.796+01:00DD
Quite. I think a better description of the mar...DD<br /><br />Quite. I think a better description of the market today is "a market with tremendous valuation disparities". There are a lot of similarities to the late 90s now, when boring old bricks and mortar widget makers trade at a single digit multiple while social media and other pets.com analogs trade at multiples in the 1000s. <br /><br />One need not question whether this is "right" or "wrong", in order to point out the existence of this inequality, just as in the case of the ratio of average worker to CEO compensation. Again, I am not moralizing, just observing. I do have my own views on whether Louis XIV levels of inequality are healthy for the economy and for society as a whole, but that's not relevant here. What matters is what comes next..?<br /><br />The major effect of the QE infinity policy and the year-end payroll tax change has not been on the employment picture, but has been a very large wealth transfer from the US worker to the ultra-rich, speculators and the balls out hedge fund managers of the Tepper ilk. One wonders how long this is politically sustainable.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17011814764722002652013-05-14T12:06:56.823+01:002013-05-14T12:06:56.823+01:00Rampagingruss says:
Any views on whats going on in...Rampagingruss says:<br />Any views on whats going on in the JGB market? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7472493347013367812013-05-14T10:38:49.296+01:002013-05-14T10:38:49.296+01:00Fed rants are so 2010. "Market that can’t be ...Fed rants are so 2010. "Market that can’t be valued" my arse. <br /><br />Pardon my french but whining underperformers can really go and stuff their 2/20 where the sun don't shine. <br /><br />DDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69294034713883333742013-05-14T04:52:32.774+01:002013-05-14T04:52:32.774+01:00LB, that was a great article (dark side of QE). Th...LB, that was a great article (dark side of QE). Thanks for posting it. <br /><br />I think the author missed one critical point though: who needs a hedge fund manager when you have proactive central planners like Bernanke/Greenspan watching your asset prices for you? (And they don't charge any fees either) <br /><br />Both Bernanke and Greenspan have been playing the role of mutual fund managers for all Americans for 20+ years. Just invest in SPY/real estate (50/50) and step back and let these guys manage it for you. If the market pulls back too much, they'll adjust monetary policy to get it moving again. If prices spike too high (like 2000's), they'll do the opposite and slow down the trajectory, etc. <br /><br />In some ways, these guys are hedge fund managers on steroids. They don't need to cherry pick investments. These guys can move the entire market in the direction that they desire, so having them manage your investment is a better long-term strategy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54333849020248322372013-05-13T21:24:22.565+01:002013-05-13T21:24:22.565+01:00Peter Tchir on credit and QE Tapering... we concur...Peter Tchir on credit and QE Tapering... we concur with quite a few of the thoughts cogently expressed here, especially with the idea that hikes are totally off the table, and that tapering QE would produce only a transient spike in Treasury yields.<br /><br />We do agree that there is going to be some kind of a mini credit crunch this summer and that the casualty will not be MBS (which the Fed will want to protect), but HY - spreads can't get any tighter, and when the selling starts, HY is just going to run into a wall and become suddenly illiquid, as it is wont to do:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.minyanville.com/mvpremium/2013/05/13/taper-talk-a-serious-look/" rel="nofollow"> Peter Tchir on QE Tapering </a><br /><br />We are short JNK, and will probably add to the position this week. We continue to not like the XHB as much as day traders and long only funds appear to... <br /><br />Investors seem to think that US housing stocks are this 350 yard par 4, with a great big 100 yard wide fairway, just take out driver and whack one out there - but it's like a Robert Trent Jones course, there are any number of traps and pot bunkers out there for the high handicap momentum investor and you can't see all of them from the tee. Tsy yield spikes, MBS spreads widening, HY spreads widening, disappointing starts and sales data, etc..... with markets at valuations like these, it doesn't matter which trap you find, you can easily hit into one trap from another and make double or triple bogey.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17307483999300670232013-05-13T20:44:09.212+01:002013-05-13T20:44:09.212+01:00Some interesting thoughts here on QE, and on that ...Some interesting thoughts here on QE, and on that iceberg that the bond market ran into last week. Apparently it was due to a strange structured product that was created to help guys trading USDJPY, obviously some leverage and convexity was involved...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/Dark-Side-of-QE-Yield-Curve/5/13/2013/id/49773?page=full#ixzz2TCe3aGBH" rel="nofollow"> Dark Side of QE </a><br /><br />Article has this great line ... "hedge funds aren’t underperforming because they don’t get economics, it’s because they are applying valuation models to a market that can’t be valued"<br /><br />Which is something that I think has been a major source of frustration to all of us here. <br /><br />Another article I read at the w/e was a classic top indicator - it was about one of those kids who has been coining it this year, trading for a NYC margin mill, saying "you don't have to know anything about the companies, b/c it's all pattern recognition"...<br /><br />This is clearly the comment of a young trader who has yet to meet that very special "pattern" where you walk in one morning and it's all quiet, then BOOM - AUDJPY is off 2%, Spoos off 30, and the market gaps, limit down, suddenly there is no bid for your miserable illiquid small cap growth stock and you are being f***ed up the arse by lunchtime. So to speak....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85005616269136086852013-05-13T18:40:24.097+01:002013-05-13T18:40:24.097+01:00another shorty on fire, with a musk play, SCTY up ...another shorty on fire, with a musk play, SCTY up 25% today. 50% Short interest. <br /><br />Re: FB vs Tesla. FB network effect, 100% positive. one of the best talent pools in tech land currently. massive advertising optionality<br /><br />Tesla, innovative technology but also BIG entrenched competition. <br /><br />Hey I love the car, liked the stock and wont short it here, but clearly this is a squeeze abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29722322665825193962013-05-13T15:59:30.505+01:002013-05-13T15:59:30.505+01:00The Tesla may well have a great future, but the st...The Tesla may well have a great future, but the stock may not have a great summer. June has a way of pulling the plug on extremely high beta.<br /><br />Social media, alternative energy, homebuilders and home-related retailers are all very over-extended. It is, as they say, a matter of when, not if, for these stocks.<br /><br />Of greater importance to the economy than the bubble in silly equity valuations is the bubble in junk bonds and how the Fed is going to let the air out of that bubble soon, before banks leverage up into it again and dodgy credit attains dangerous proportions.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1680358626237192862013-05-13T14:31:26.658+01:002013-05-13T14:31:26.658+01:00As Aphex Twin would have it, this week looks like ...As Aphex Twin would have it, this week looks like "UST, come to DD".<br /><br />Yes, we are toe dipping back in.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82303392092529926922013-05-12T10:18:13.301+01:002013-05-12T10:18:13.301+01:00Tesla - 9,5 billion pushing the scientific & e...Tesla - 9,5 billion pushing the scientific & engineering envelope<br /><br />Facebook - 65,5 billion glorified gossip & chat tapping & training dopamine receptors<br /><br />The T-bull, much like the original T-Ford is on a firmer footing, and 'a ways to go'. I'm staying long.Black Inkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11069622967439571755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88740629284657486012013-05-12T09:30:11.072+01:002013-05-12T09:30:11.072+01:00Playing Doubting Thomas doesn't pay dividendsPlaying Doubting Thomas doesn't pay dividends Black Inkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11069622967439571755noreply@blogger.com