tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post276407177081904393..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The Fed put is real, and it's spectacularMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger65125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84722042124505057092015-10-05T05:51:36.885+01:002015-10-05T05:51:36.885+01:00anyone else think markets should be more concerned...anyone else think markets should be more concerned re Syria ? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35446110350598826372015-10-04T22:41:24.100+01:002015-10-04T22:41:24.100+01:00Even IF you were Dr. Doom all the time, Nico, I wo...Even IF you were Dr. Doom all the time, Nico, I would still enjoy reading your commentary. And I do hope you get an honest "feel" for what is happening in Brazil these days and that you will share it with us, in particular, has EWZ bottomed this week and has it now officially begun a monster rally? :)<br /><br />Enjoy the sights1Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46366307740997120462015-10-04T21:41:09.398+01:002015-10-04T21:41:09.398+01:00There will be a time when i am bullish vs. most of...<i>There will be a time when i am bullish vs. most of you decisively bearish.</i><br /><br />Class.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12351602739098693142015-10-04T21:04:26.976+01:002015-10-04T21:04:26.976+01:00Nico, not that i doubt you but, was that a random ...Nico, not that i doubt you but, was that a random order fill working orders at that area or were you trading flow? Pretty hard to get that price on flow scalping point and click. Not impossible but, at the time, flow certainly felt like one more move was coming. But then, it always does. Lots of buts!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32700206608780536902015-10-04T21:02:21.774+01:002015-10-04T21:02:21.774+01:00FT@ Nico: well done, I, for one, wouldn't thi...FT@ Nico: well done, I, for one, wouldn't think you would say such a thing if it weren't true, u sound like a straight block....did u just cover shorts or got long (for a short while obviously)?<br />Anyway, have a caipirinha for me, I'm going there in November for a bit of surfing....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86918942390397553402015-10-04T21:01:00.152+01:002015-10-04T21:01:00.152+01:00one more thing i just came across. Catching Russia...one more thing i just came across. Catching Russian knives sure ain't a walk in the park<br /><br />"Mann paid the equivalent of $2.20 when he purchased Sberbank’s Moscow-listed shares in March 2014. He thought he was getting a bargain, buying around the time the stock tumbled to a four-year low as President Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea and investors fled from Russian assets. Now Sberbank sells for $1.12 and Mann has 2.4 percent of his $381 million Motley Fool Independence Fund invested in the lender. "<br /><br />CAUTIONNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14685736272385034292015-10-04T20:50:38.377+01:002015-10-04T20:50:38.377+01:00Edit: sorry, 3027 for a Friday low of 3026Edit: sorry, 3027 for a Friday low of 3026Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47211617384547141182015-10-04T20:43:17.650+01:002015-10-04T20:43:17.650+01:00it sucks to be the local Dr Doom here 1) when all ...it sucks to be the local Dr Doom here 1) when all i have written about is CAUTION and 2) a more recent theme has been to drastically shorten your timeframe, from investing to trading<br /><br />LB since you were worried about shorties remember i was long into quarter end then reversed short on October 1st indeed. To your surprise I covered that short on Friday at 3127. That is one tick above the low of the day i know you don't believe it (Dec stoxx). I have no problem at all sending you IB trades of last week to make a point, i kid you not. <br /><br />I would never want to show off here - this ain't a place to post trades - but i certainly do NOT want to sound like bullshit. To boot: Dr Doom is flat before heading to Brazil tomorrow for a well deserved holiday. There will be a time when i am bullish vs. most of you decisively bearish. I am longing for that day, to become MM resident Peter Sellers (the Party edition)<br /><br />Good luck everyoneNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42640820671254641442015-10-04T19:05:29.645+01:002015-10-04T19:05:29.645+01:00Wow TPP close to done deal:
http://www.cbc.ca/news...Wow TPP close to done deal:<br />http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trans-pacific-partnership-near-deal-1.3256151<br /><br />I'd bet TTIP can't be too far behind - with the exception of EU having a lot crappier negotiators than Japan. If you like connecting dot patterns, conspiracy theories and tin foil hats, then think VW - with a result favorable enough, perhaps those juicy fines just might get "faded" into irrelevancy.hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44565820266765006202015-10-04T03:48:47.078+01:002015-10-04T03:48:47.078+01:00for what it's worth I think we just establishe...for what it's worth I think we just established a trade able double bottom in equities. We probably rally or range trade for the next few months. But I think I will be trimming length at we get up there. Just doesn't feel like the recent dollar move, commodity move and credit move are fully done. If you asked me about the magnitude of the move, i think a 60% fall in oil, 7% in HY or current fx rates seems pretty substantial but I doubt all these moves have been fully digested in all markets. They took 5 years to go up, so going down for 1 year just seems a little too short. <br /><br />Time to take off the stoic investor top hat and put back on the trader cap. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22542233067697400922015-10-03T12:50:55.579+01:002015-10-03T12:50:55.579+01:00To add: China being closed for the week might just...To add: China being closed for the week might just facilitate a massive bid/grind higher. If it does, we can all blame China for recent down moves. If we stall and fall, well, China can no longer be the excuse.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38140619533309881812015-10-03T12:46:11.249+01:002015-10-03T12:46:11.249+01:00A decent rally off lows but Spoos only closed 14ha...A decent rally off lows but Spoos only closed 14handles above its price pre figure. Its the first US led rally in what feels like months, maybe even all year. Most US moves have been overnight or on the back of something else. Wouldn't be gettimg carried away with a 6hour move.... Need to see a bid sustained for the week. Bear market rallies.....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26515036511738769962015-10-03T12:10:15.687+01:002015-10-03T12:10:15.687+01:00Indeed, what a reversal, and indication, I think, ...Indeed, what a reversal, and indication, I think, that the market wants to rally more so than fall here. NFP is such a stupid number and the recent weakness could easily be revised away in coming reports, but in the short term, a rate hike is not happening. Indeed, as far as I can see, the ECB is next on the stage and Mr. Draghi will likely be in early Christmas mood given that the Eurozone just slipped back into "deflation". I hear LB's point about U.S. selling for tax reasons in December, but I think indices such as FTSE 100, MSCI EM and DAX have real legs here well into Q1. <br /><br />The warning from credit markets is real, but as long as it doesn't happen in a GENERAL taper tantrum, 9%-to-10% yield on selected US. HY energy names will eventually prove too lucrative. Note also that the big re-financing/maturity hurdles have been pushed out. The next big ones are in 2017/18 if I remember correctly, same applies to EM non-finanancial corporate. There will be a glorious chance to make money on the short side here, but it requires higher inflation and either more complacent or constrained CBs. It won't happen as part of a deflation panic. <br /><br />Watch EM too ... consensus is way too bearish here, and I think a counter move is just around the corner, which will take a out a lot of "macro/1997-98 redux" tourists. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62453244929292569312015-10-03T03:18:18.980+01:002015-10-03T03:18:18.980+01:00Boy, was that a choppy day on spoos. A real bear v...Boy, was that a choppy day on spoos. A real bear vs. bull action packed episode, so perhaps it's an environment to take quick profits, trade small size and be nimble until one side clearly takes dominance.<br /><br />I couldn't help but resist taking a cheeky small short on spoos on the close though @ 1950. A melt up does seem to me far fetched at this point, so perhaps more chop and with the bears slapped around from 1900 and with the bulls confidently closing, I am guessing they will be slapped around a bit early next week. I am setting a tight stoploss though. The only fly in the ointment is that the Chinese are not back from holiday until next Thursday. <br /><br />It's a period of uncertainty until we find out whether the ROW slowdown pushes the US into recession or not. If it is there is further indication of this in the next few months, there is much further downside in risk trends, if not then there will be a nice end of year rally as most commentators have suggested. <br /><br /> Boogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59255988088802283142015-10-03T01:02:08.662+01:002015-10-03T01:02:08.662+01:00FT: by the way, XAG was the real icing on the cak...FT: by the way, XAG was the real icing on the cake.....I don't know if this rally has any legs but XAU/XAG ratio tends to be inversely correlated to equity performance....this leaves quite some room for xag performance even with xau unch ish....<br />I was stopped yesterday on my xau longs but the GDX xag and xau calls kicked in nicely today....got more psychological satisfaction from that than than the equity v shape reversal<br />Good weAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6851821984193611132015-10-03T00:45:51.218+01:002015-10-03T00:45:51.218+01:00FT: what a day....I came within a pubic hair of ge...FT: what a day....I came within a pubic hair of getting stopped on my DAX longs (4355) we had an a) b) c) in a matter of 2 days and the c today was scaaarrrryyyyy<br />I take no pride, a few more stops on the dax would have taken my position away but better lucky than smart<br />stops on NDX were comfortably further, but still....painful it was from the morning highs<br />I just hope for a little bit of comfort and rest for a few weeks without any third world war being ignited in syria or any tremor from SF to Tokyo...<br />Is that too much to ask for?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39793637650889649922015-10-02T23:18:14.748+01:002015-10-02T23:18:14.748+01:00@LB - Good call on those equity longs. Well done s...@LB - Good call on those equity longs. Well done sir.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61489418095566053742015-10-02T22:36:19.259+01:002015-10-02T22:36:19.259+01:00"Something for the weekend, sir? Perhaps sir ..."Something for the weekend, sir? Perhaps sir might savour some cold steel?"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31374835091607261682015-10-02T21:40:54.138+01:002015-10-02T21:40:54.138+01:00LB (along with CV, FT and others) were long days a...LB (along with CV, FT and others) were long days ago, and were afraid for Shorties going into the Q4 fund flows... Ohh dear. Look away, all those of a delicate disposition.... that reversal must have been painful.<br /><br />Vol selling and Q4 performance chasing might be the name of the game for a while now. Non-apocalyptic earnings will persuade insties that they have to chase this market again and we might see a sub-15 Vix before this rally runs out of steam. <br /><br />December might not be very clever this year, especially if consumers look weak, as there will be a lot of people trimming their books and doing tax selling. But that's a long way away right now, and so is the December FOMC meeting which will be the next opportunity for the Fed to chicken out. Standing pat in October is already a done deal. For the time being, hikes are so totally off the table, money remains cheap and there are yields to be hogged and profits to be made in risky assets worldwide. <br /><br />No high 5s today. We'll just do "the nod", with perhaps a "you da man finger point". That street enough for you?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56382367088587921482015-10-02T21:26:46.932+01:002015-10-02T21:26:46.932+01:00Man, I feel stupid today. Been running a mild unde...Man, I feel stupid today. Been running a mild underweight equities into NFP (i. e. 95% of the benchmark) having watched macro data being so so lately. Today's action plan was simple: bad number = increase underweight to 90%, good number = move back to BM. Said done and smoked. Technically the reversal is significant and hard to ignore, even if I really sense macro will deteriorate in coming weeks as I don't buy at all the argument that DMs are completely immune from EMs' slwdown. But looks like that the only game in town of the last few years will keep on playing a little longer. Congrats to whoever bought the dip post NFP today .... Definitely getting to old for this.ALnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75545490659791347942015-10-02T21:22:41.545+01:002015-10-02T21:22:41.545+01:00still think trade around core long book and maybe ...still think trade around core long book and maybe flatten headline deltas into 2000 spy<br />iwm first up day in 10 i think...might get follow through but who knows....now if they would only buy some of this european stuff i'm long .....and this might be first time since aug lows that vix curve in contango...though i still think option premiums looks very cheap given the size of moves<br />good weekend all....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7476414999687860712015-10-02T21:10:52.783+01:002015-10-02T21:10:52.783+01:00'i hope noone in this forum is left believing ...'i hope noone in this forum is left believing that the 2009-2015 QEed price action did not end last August.'<br /><br />Oh yes he did!rpnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69456496354716202522015-10-02T21:03:29.558+01:002015-10-02T21:03:29.558+01:00LOL @ shorts...like I said months ago, this isn...LOL @ shorts...like I said months ago, this isn't different. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64198444671019636862015-10-02T20:19:46.071+01:002015-10-02T20:19:46.071+01:00Been a classic day. In the good old days of the &q...Been a classic day. In the good old days of the "Nico 'n' Funny Money" We would have been in round 12 by now. But I'm beginning to hatch a theory to the Agatha Christie mystery of who is actually who amongst all the anons and pseudonyms here.. and that theory is.. that FM and Nico are actually the same person ! <br /><br />Back to where we started in spoos. The one thing I have decided from all this is that guessing NFPs is as fruitless task as guessing Fed. And as stocks don't even know what to do on any result due to the two memes of FM Cb forever meets Nico world econ collapse, unresolved (As the blog has been testament to) the worth of guessing any of it is becoming academic. <br /><br />Have a great weekend<br /><br />Cimelop.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36578185400227224792015-10-02T19:30:35.465+01:002015-10-02T19:30:35.465+01:00William McChesney Martin had no idea what he was d...William McChesney Martin had no idea what he was doing. He governed by 'feel'. Even though some of that 'feel' is probably warranted, he wouldnt survive in todays academically/statistically oriented Fed<br /><br />Car sales are a great leading indicator but I dont think we are on a new sustainable trend above much above 18M. But it sure isnt a warning sign. Nor are any of the housing numbers. Thats why I agree with MM on the confidence of the current economic situation, even if the CFNAI and other broad economic indicies are rather lackluster. <br /><br />But that said, I finally got a chance to watch mr ichan's video, which I thought was rather good. He didnt really pound the table too hard on HY bonds (except on Larry Fink). But did say that it will be a crowded exit when the economy turn in that assset class, which I totally agree with. So the question is now, is the current HY market sell off due to simply supply/demand issues, technicals, and the market getting upset with some recent M&A, or is the HY market trying to tell us something? <br /><br />First it was energy, now its the serial acquirers, soon with will be IG M&A that gets the HY wrath (listen up 3G). <br /><br />Lastly, I am hearing that there is going to be some big redemptions coming in a lot of funds in Q4. <br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.com