tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2754039479175977260..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Old SchoolMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43900640578423388282008-05-30T04:42:00.000+01:002008-05-30T04:42:00.000+01:00Care to guess where the bottom is for USDMXN?Care to guess where the bottom is for USDMXN?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36396898506097524412008-05-28T08:04:00.000+01:002008-05-28T08:04:00.000+01:00I think Macroman is correct in his assessment that...I think Macroman is correct in his assessment that the ECB won't be lowering interest rates any time soon. The "old" EU markets seem on the whole to be chugging along nicely, and despite the rumors it would appear European banking is not in as bad a shape as across the Atlantic. That said, new EU markets are in for a rough ride, with recessions likely in a number of those countries. <BR/><BR/>Consider the Baltic trio, wild years with high growth rates but also out of control wage hikes, inflation, housing and current account deficits. That party came to an abrupt end, with this year's Q1 showing flat growth and Q2 likely to show a recession in progress.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89429151499910185532008-05-28T02:38:00.000+01:002008-05-28T02:38:00.000+01:00From what I've heard, a goodly portion of real est...From what I've heard, a goodly portion of real estate speculation in China is financed with borrowed US$. Is there any connection between weakening China to US export business and this short position in borrowed dollars? <BR/><BR/>There is also quite a lot of internal shocks in China, AKA earthquakes, which will consume money and bring about inefficiencies, not to mention the human cost.Richhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15333565680808748761noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22816535696981028222008-05-27T20:09:00.000+01:002008-05-27T20:09:00.000+01:00MM - Old School is also a fantastic novel by Tobia...MM - <A HREF="http://www.amazon.com/Old-School-Tobias-Wolff/dp/0375401466" REL="nofollow">Old School</A> is also a fantastic novel by <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobias_Wolff" REL="nofollow">Tobias Wolff</A> about a bursary student (jewish poor outsider) at an eastern boarding school (Andover?) that's a celebration of literature, poetry, and a more innocent time now-gone. It contains one of the finest and most poignant parodies of Ayn Rand that will have everyone (except Rand 's most fervent disciples and acolytes) rolling on the floor with laughter. It is even better than Bob The Angry FLower's <A HREF="http://www.angryflower.com/atlass.gif" REL="nofollow">Atlas Shrugged 1- Month Later</A>"Cassandra"https://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88866192839208002532008-05-27T19:40:00.000+01:002008-05-27T19:40:00.000+01:00Yes, when the music stops...thanks for your explan...Yes, when the music stops...thanks for your explanation. How does the European curve play out if inflation pressures remain? its back to levels it was trading at when the ECB was actively hiking rates, and historically withing a few bp's of significant support...can the stagflation grow and long rates decline while short rates go nowhere always vulnerable to the Weber, etal?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62243883071564112862008-05-27T14:55:00.000+01:002008-05-27T14:55:00.000+01:00Anon, my presumption is that the underlying pressu...Anon, my presumption is that the underlying pressure for the RMB to appreciate remained intact (admittedly largely driven by capital flows) , but that SAFE stopped it in its tracks by buying dollars with what some might call reckless abandon.<BR/><BR/>PHP rally has, I believe, been driven by improved politics and large remittances. My short PHP position was taken on the view that it had come a long way without challenging any coat-tailing traders/fund managrs, and that the BoP was likely to take a hit from adverse terms of trade shock. <BR/><BR/>How the commodity boom plays out will ultimately dictate how far this correction goes and how long it lasts.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67211818962263401362008-05-27T14:49:00.000+01:002008-05-27T14:49:00.000+01:00Thank you, how does record fx inflows translate in...Thank you, how does record fx inflows translate into a sideways cny? I am assuming that the relentless march of EUR/USD from 1.55 to 1.60 for the first 3 weeks of April was the result? Thank you too for pointing out the PHP issues, I was unaware of them. The PHP has however on a longer term scale been reacting off of a multi-year rally from north of 55...how does that fit into the current context of bop/inflation, etc?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3446128935616655952008-05-27T12:14:00.000+01:002008-05-27T12:14:00.000+01:00Nice.What are anyone's thoughts about the EU new m...Nice.<BR/>What are anyone's thoughts about the EU new markets/Latin Am/Russia? Will they decouple, of will they tank too? <BR/>My feeling at the moment is that they will tank, but probably not as much as Asia EM, and less than US/UK too. Somewhere in line with Germany I'd say, althought the risk there is the (relatively) low liquidity in currencies.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com