tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2699937262632469334..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: 3 quick bulletsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger64125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60225495865530133042015-04-23T00:38:01.741+01:002015-04-23T00:38:01.741+01:00"Did Spoofing Cause the Flash Crash? Not So F..."Did Spoofing Cause the Flash Crash? Not So Fast!".<br /><br />http://cpirrong.tumblr.com/post/117106193128/did-spoofing-cause-the-flash-crash-not-so-fastAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57879832844131368672015-04-22T20:08:35.209+01:002015-04-22T20:08:35.209+01:00I'm throwing in the towel on trying to squeeze...I'm throwing in the towel on trying to squeeze a short out of biotech index. Too many animal spirits out there - frankly given how markets are trading I'm surprised NDX in particular is not much stronger. <br /><br />Somewhat interesting to see NDX/SPX basically at ytd parity with DAX/SX5E on a constant currency basis.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77560000627393538782015-04-22T19:39:53.230+01:002015-04-22T19:39:53.230+01:00"Dear CFTC: This Is The Market Manipulating &..."Dear CFTC: This Is The Market Manipulating "Spoofing" Taking Place In The E-Mini Just Today".<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-22/dear-cftc-market-manipulating-spoofing-taking-place-e-mini-just-todayAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18586056716838949512015-04-22T19:30:45.501+01:002015-04-22T19:30:45.501+01:00JK says,
Now bbg is reporting sarao is involved w...JK says,<br /><br />Now bbg is reporting sarao is involved with numerous complex offshore tax avoidance structures. Spoofing/layering is one thing, but where'd the guy get that kind of knowledge? I haven't seen any mention of a history in finance and his parents seem like normal folks. What kind of capital would he have been working with to trade the kind of size mentioned, and where would he have got it from given he was about 30 or so when he started kicking off, assuming he's not a trust fund baby given pics of the folks house??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19310831791690527662015-04-22T17:15:01.520+01:002015-04-22T17:15:01.520+01:00It's interesting to note that Sarao was spoofi...It's interesting to note that Sarao was spoofing sell orders to move the SP500 DOWN - so that's why the Plunge Protection Team etc want this guy removed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67332931628207533692015-04-22T15:49:18.779+01:002015-04-22T15:49:18.779+01:00http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financial-crime...http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financial-crime/11555228/Flash-Crash-trader-Navinder-Singh-Sarao-pictured-for-first-time.html<br /><br />"Sarao faces a maximum sentence of 380(!) years in an American jail as a result of the allegations which emerged late on Tuesday night."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45745022008823526722015-04-22T15:27:31.506+01:002015-04-22T15:27:31.506+01:00anon 2:13 - they actually haven't clarified it...anon 2:13 - they actually haven't clarified it, but my assumption is that as long as their balance sheet is below QE targets they would re-invest it - if the program itself is over then it just gets repatriated back to respective Govt treasuries obv - if someone else has a different understanding do let us know.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5530542236526656622015-04-22T14:45:29.535+01:002015-04-22T14:45:29.535+01:00Used to think ZeroHedge was over-the-top with the ...Used to think ZeroHedge was over-the-top with the conspiracy theory stuff... after reading all this about the London day-trader being extradited by the FBI/SEC etc it makes you realise ZH is right.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49321465988326202002015-04-22T14:42:46.292+01:002015-04-22T14:42:46.292+01:00Debt to GDP
Asia (ex Japan)
2015: 205%
2007: 144...Debt to GDP<br /><br />Asia (ex Japan)<br /><br />2015: 205%<br />2007: 144%<br />1996: 139%<br /><br />Data Frm @TomWrightAsiaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56709352878497422852015-04-22T14:13:24.568+01:002015-04-22T14:13:24.568+01:00Completely unrelated but have a question:
Once th...Completely unrelated but have a question:<br /><br />Once the bonds the ECB are buying matures, what do they do with all the principal they get back?<br /><br />Apologies for dumbing this down to that level.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43570385305489190822015-04-22T14:09:28.003+01:002015-04-22T14:09:28.003+01:00the SEC blaming the Flash Crash on this guy is lik...the SEC blaming the Flash Crash on this guy is like the Captain of the Titanic blaming its sinking on the man in cabin 53 for spilling a glass of water. <br /><br />The system the SEC oversaw was not fit for purpose. they should take the wrap. Unfortunately this all looks so totalitarian it's almost Stalinist. <br /><br />Go long Financial Gulags. <br /><br />Of course there is a small chance there is all part of some darker sub-plot with this all they can nail a guy they want for other things with at the moment. <br /><br />But jeezuz, with the spoofing going on in UK supermarkets quite openly <br /><br />http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/21/what-does-which-supermarket-pricing-complaint-mean-for-you<br /><br />perhaps we should extradite the boards of every UK retailer. <br /><br />Tesco even pulling off the ultimate spoof with the value of their property portfolio over the past couple of years. £4.3billion off true mark to market? Of course that's just fine .. <br /> <br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90955392936099783292015-04-22T14:01:45.108+01:002015-04-22T14:01:45.108+01:00Ah, OK, didn't see that, gotcha. OK, still......Ah, OK, didn't see that, gotcha. OK, still...are we really supposed to believe that $200m of phony sell orders spooked the world into taking the SPX down 10% in a minute or two?<br /><br />Preposterous.<br /><br />(And to reiterate, while putting phony orders into futures markets is bad and should rightfully be stopped, it pales in comparison with what goes on in cash equity markets.)Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54681986909655109102015-04-22T13:52:26.144+01:002015-04-22T13:52:26.144+01:00Typical order size of his actual trades yes, but h...Typical order size of his actual trades yes, but his spoofing orders were larger size. <br />"SARAO's use of the dynamic layering technique was particularly intense in the hours leading up to the Flash Crash. SARAO used the technique continuously from 11:17 a.m. until 1:40 p.m. SARAO began this cycle by placing the following five sell orders nearly simultaneously at approximately 11:17:38.782 a.m.: (1) 600 lots at $1,156.50; (2) 600 lots at $1,156.75; (3) 600 lots at $1,157.00; (4) 600 lots at $1,157.25; and (5) 600 lots at $1,157.50. At approximately 1:13 p.m., SARAO added a sixth sell order for 600 lots, bringing the total to 3,600 lots."<br />So more like $200m of orders. And the $3bn figure that was quoted in the article represents the total notional of all his trades that day (buys and sells together).<br /><br />Regardless, this does not invalidate your point one bit.thetanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64404831505423779022015-04-22T13:42:59.642+01:002015-04-22T13:42:59.642+01:00"So some bloke spamming 50 lot orders of mini..."So some bloke spamming 50 lot orders of minis from his spare room (conveniently located in a foreign country) caused the flash crash, while the Matrix of single stock order spammers co-located with the exchange servers receive no opprobrium from the regulators? Somehow it reminds me of the trial of the Deltas in Animal House...."<br /><br />Oh, this is good! Very good! Conclusion: This doesn't pass the smell test! CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67910249060408016872015-04-22T13:06:34.126+01:002015-04-22T13:06:34.126+01:00@theta- the article suggested his typical order si...@theta- the article suggested his typical order size was GBP 2m, which given pricing at the time corresponds to an order size of 50 minis.<br /><br />So some bloke spamming 50 lot orders of minis from his spare room (conveniently located in a foreign country) caused the flash crash, while the Matrix of single stock order spammers co-located with the exchange servers receive no opprobrium from the regulators? Somehow it reminds me of the trial of the Deltas in Animal House....Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86502309972546122142015-04-22T13:04:59.384+01:002015-04-22T13:04:59.384+01:00spot on Polemic,
spoofing if a criminal offence bu...spot on Polemic,<br />spoofing if a criminal offence but frontrunning is perfectly fine (so common practice indeed that is part of the facts of how this market operates)thetanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49980553531719064732015-04-22T12:24:58.802+01:002015-04-22T12:24:58.802+01:00Ok, so he posted orders that were pulled and peopl...Ok, so he posted orders that were pulled and people traded on the order book they saw. How about nailing every individual that traded with respect to the look of that order book because as any spot FX participant now sorely knows, trading against information in an order book is illegalPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13857345012301444482015-04-22T12:18:30.238+01:002015-04-22T12:18:30.238+01:00I hope it goes to court because it's indeed a ...I hope it goes to court because it's indeed a joke, but I'm afraid he is going to be bullied into settling.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38637002115318830962015-04-22T10:58:36.212+01:002015-04-22T10:58:36.212+01:00http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-21/g...http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-21/guy-trading-at-home-caused-the-flash-crash<br /><br />So, the day-trader guy had his spoofing algo SWITCHED OFF when the flash crash happened, and now the regulators are going to arrest him for causing the crash!? LOL<br /><br />Oh, and they knew he was spoofing, and they let him spoof EVERY DAY FOR 5 YEARS, until just now when they needed a scapegoat.<br /><br />You couldn't make this stuff up.<br /><br />PS The day-traders broker was MF Global. Remember them? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12694692111796829532015-04-22T09:59:33.296+01:002015-04-22T09:59:33.296+01:00@MM,
it was $3bn, not $3m orders of course, but ye...@MM,<br />it was $3bn, not $3m orders of course, but yes, I completely agree with you.<br /><br />Also, I find this odd:<br />(from the FACTS section of the complaint):<br />33. Many market participants, relying on the information contained in the Order Book, consider the total relative number of bid and ask offers in the Order Book when making trading decisions. For instance, if the total number of sell orders significantly outweighs the total number of buy orders, market participants may believe a price drop is imminent and trade accordingly. Similarly, if the balance of buy and sell orders changes abruptly, market participants may believe the new orders represent legitimate changes to supply and demand and therefore trade accordingly. Further, many market participants utilize automated trading systems that analyze the market for these types of order imbalances and use that information to determine trading strategies. Consequently, actions in the Order Book can, and do, affect the price of theE-mini S&P. <br /><br />So this takes reflexivity one step further and presents it as a FACT. People will react to intentions of other people therefore you are not allowed to lie about your intentions. IANAL but I think this is the very basis of the complaint and it doesn't seem very solid to me.thetanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48714080368769765952015-04-22T09:51:39.045+01:002015-04-22T09:51:39.045+01:00@anon 7.46pm re: varoufakis, reading that transcri...@anon 7.46pm re: varoufakis, reading that transcript I find myself in agreement with most of what he says actually. In essence he advocates agreeing an end to depression inducing austerity. The question then is how do u go about it, and what will each side's (mostly Greece's) actions be to help facilitate such move. Raiding the pension funds and local governments cash reserves doesn't help for example. But again, what he says in this interview makes sense to me. thetanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49679702994932953242015-04-22T08:18:28.364+01:002015-04-22T08:18:28.364+01:00@anon 7:22 - Surely one key difference is that in ...@anon 7:22 - Surely one key difference is that in 1999 Central Banks still had some credibility, and we only had a bubble in Nasdaq. Now Central Banks have no credibility and there are bubbles in everything. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39960158253698752032015-04-22T08:05:15.328+01:002015-04-22T08:05:15.328+01:00What actually caused the flash crash? Here's y...What actually caused the flash crash? Here's your answer:<br /><br />What really caused Flash Crash:<br />Someone LEAKED that a mutual fund was selling 75K eMini's via participation algo. Wall St pounced<br /><br />(Source: https://twitter.com/nanexllc/status/590705684607565825)<br /><br />So not some guy in his mom's house in London... what a surprise...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87174105579547093652015-04-22T07:22:00.769+01:002015-04-22T07:22:00.769+01:00Am I the only one thinking it's 1999 all over ...Am I the only one thinking it's 1999 all over again ?<br /><br /><a href="http://on.wsj.com/1GhE22O" rel="nofollow">Retail traders wield social media for investing fame</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69621933081268727672015-04-22T02:09:43.220+01:002015-04-22T02:09:43.220+01:00Fabrice Tourre, the "Fabulous Fab"..
the...Fabrice Tourre, the "Fabulous Fab"..<br />the London Whale,Libor scandal,MF Global,SAC to name a few..any senior executives in jail? Pay a seemingly huge fine with the loot!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com