tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2601574430921229538..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: What next?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3624757929753770912008-01-26T19:00:00.000+00:002008-01-26T19:00:00.000+00:00Yaser, basically, yes.Yaser, basically, yes.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23922115350390389512008-01-26T18:05:00.000+00:002008-01-26T18:05:00.000+00:00MM-Thank you for the post. By shorting opportunity...MM-<BR/><BR/>Thank you for the post. By shorting opportunity of a life time you mean shorting the 2 yrs when the Fed is done cutting right (and yield starts rising after 6 or so months)?<BR/><BR/>Thank you.NAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09308905056511377295noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34320397422759705082008-01-24T10:39:00.000+00:002008-01-24T10:39:00.000+00:00MM,I obviously understand that CPI is taken away f...MM,<BR/>I obviously understand that CPI is taken away from both series, but the charts still wouldn't look the same if they were nominal. The point is that there has been a lot of volatility in inflation recently, hence at a time where nominal rates are quite low, a lot of the co-movement that you see in the picture for recent years is likely not driven by (relatively small) changes in interest rates, but rather by (relatively large) changes in inflation. Sorry for not being clearer the first time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57132406422212579492008-01-24T01:01:00.000+00:002008-01-24T01:01:00.000+00:00MM,now you know what passes for insightful comment...MM,<BR/><BR/>now you know what passes for insightful commentary in the blogosphere, I'm hoping we get to see videos of you screaming at your Bloomberg terminal.<BR/><BR/>Today could have seen you exhorting the S&P500 to recover as it plummets towards your stop only to have it respond and fly up proving your genius to us all. :)<BR/><BR/><BR/>--QQuarrelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04966272626535388524noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44240833838807396122008-01-23T21:24:00.000+00:002008-01-23T21:24:00.000+00:00Oh my god, That video is just painful to watch ......Oh my god, <BR/><BR/>That video is just painful to watch ... Really, I feel sorry for the poor guy. <BR/><BR/>ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53333389232406875602008-01-23T18:55:00.000+00:002008-01-23T18:55:00.000+00:00My comment on the Trichet hissy fit: we've got a b...My comment on the Trichet hissy fit: we've got a bunch of folks over here in the US trying to put the Scholar's Spin on this, saying he remembers the Alamo (excuse me, the hyperinflation of the 1930's). The thesis is Jean Paul Belmondo (sorry again, Jean-Claude) is constitutionally unable to cut.<BR/><BR/>I disagree and I think his tantrum earlier today is the set up, for the cut.<BR/><BR/>Kinda reminds me of Ben's war of words on inflation in Summer of 2006, just before he paused.<BR/><BR/>I think a central banker is programmed to scream about Temperance, as his friends cart him off to the pub.www.gregor.ushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14172143997858920566noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71577498944185373472008-01-23T18:39:00.000+00:002008-01-23T18:39:00.000+00:00The railroads are a play on oil depletion. Or, put...The railroads are a play on oil depletion. Or, put another way, a play on structurally higher oil prices. I expect them to reassert themselves in the DTX, pushing the truckers out to the edges. Long-haul trucking has no future, and neither does air transport for all but the elite. The bottom line is that the rails are going to surprise to the upside over the next 3 years. I would suggest the book Train Time by John Stilgoe at Harvard, and his other writings. The US and Canadian rails are also a play on coal and grains exports. And believe me, the USA is going to have to ship a ton of coal and grains in the years ahead as we get reacquainted with the old-fashioned idea of "production."www.gregor.ushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14172143997858920566noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84050652496164531862008-01-23T16:52:00.000+00:002008-01-23T16:52:00.000+00:00so its superstition..thanks MM !so its superstition..<BR/><BR/>thanks MM !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30233127936159616422008-01-23T16:40:00.000+00:002008-01-23T16:40:00.000+00:00Classic Dow theory suggest that the Transports are...Classic Dow theory suggest that the Transports are significant...but then again, classic Dow theory was created when railroads were a) the only feasible way to cross the US, and b) a MUCH more important sector relative to the overall size of the market than they are now.<BR/><BR/>I'd propose the Nasdaq as a latter day equivlanet.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65328833928648507962008-01-23T16:32:00.000+00:002008-01-23T16:32:00.000+00:00does the fact that the Dow Transp. Index is so far...does the fact that the Dow Transp. Index is so far up mean anything .. ? is that to be taken seriously, or its just superstition ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21774614191010922312008-01-23T16:26:00.000+00:002008-01-23T16:26:00.000+00:00Bureaucrat, CPI is taken away from both series, so...Bureaucrat, CPI is taken away from both series, so the chart would look the same (albeit with a different scale)if it were nominal rates. The point I was making is that the closeness of the recent link between FF and 10's in terms of both direction and level appears to be relatively unprecedented. <BR/><BR/>Peter, my foray into dip buying was on a paltry amount of options struck nearly 100 SPX points away. Tells you how confident I am in that trade...<BR/><BR/>CB, understood. The HP website takes public angst to a whole new level...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5272077880351239412008-01-23T15:26:00.000+00:002008-01-23T15:26:00.000+00:00Q,The HP Blog is priceless. Thanks.Sorry MM, I'm m...Q,<BR/><BR/>The HP Blog is priceless. Thanks.<BR/><BR/>Sorry MM, I'm moving on to greener pastures...Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43376140223289509642008-01-23T15:00:00.000+00:002008-01-23T15:00:00.000+00:00too much bear talk for not to have a bounce..unfor...too much bear talk for not to have a bounce..<BR/><BR/>unfortunately i thought the same on thursday already.. seems like an eternity and many many p&l dollars away..<BR/><BR/>cats have 9 lives (or 7, cant remember). dont know about traders, but i surely used up 3 in the last 6 months..<BR/><BR/>good luckspagettihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12141785799734886089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88545153224248810732008-01-23T14:57:00.000+00:002008-01-23T14:57:00.000+00:00Quarrel, you're a star, thanks. If anything, his ...Quarrel, you're a star, thanks. If anything, his web site is more- I don't even now what adjective to use here- than just the video.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17547411031294284052008-01-23T14:50:00.000+00:002008-01-23T14:50:00.000+00:00The video is still available - second item down (a...The video is still available - second item down (as I write this) at the source:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://highprobability.blogspot.com/" REL="nofollow">High Probability Blog</A><BR/><BR/>Some of my equity positions felt a bit like that :(<BR/><BR/>Luckily I'm not looking to my profits on them to eat - which it seemed might be closer to the truth for this poor fellow.<BR/><BR/><BR/>--QQuarrelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04966272626535388524noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25626621751829655202008-01-23T14:09:00.000+00:002008-01-23T14:09:00.000+00:00MM,while I agree broadly with what you wrote, I wo...MM,<BR/>while I agree broadly with what you wrote, I would still like to point out that real short and long rates moving in tandem is to a significant degree the effect of relatively large changes in headline inflation (I assume that's what you use) in a world of pretty low nominal interest rates.<BR/><BR/>Bureaucrat<BR/><BR/>PS The panic button picture was brilliant.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34342041152086782852008-01-23T13:46:00.000+00:002008-01-23T13:46:00.000+00:00What I find hilarious is that the rumoured losses ...What I find hilarious is that the rumoured losses at BNP and SocGen are being reported in French francs....when the young bucks who no doubt bought all the crap causing the losses probably can barely remember what a FRF is...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51638648523422491032008-01-23T13:44:00.000+00:002008-01-23T13:44:00.000+00:00Trichet reminds me of James Baker the weekend befo...<B> Trichet reminds me of James Baker the weekend before the Crash of 1987 ...... the coming meltdown of the European banks will give Citibank lots of company.... stay short all European financials</B>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77176001976310541462008-01-23T13:42:00.000+00:002008-01-23T13:42:00.000+00:00Not in common parlance, though those in the know a...Not in common parlance, though those in the know are obviously aware. Meanwhile, I'm just wondering if I will be stopped out of my cheeky call option trade before I have a chance to execute it!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3308070511558040972008-01-23T13:34:00.000+00:002008-01-23T13:34:00.000+00:00It's taking a while to dawn on equities markets th...It's taking a while to dawn on equities markets the notion that if you don't know what the risk is, better to consider it unlimited. Haven't heard the word 'sygma' for a while, have we?Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90799294326867521042008-01-23T13:24:00.000+00:002008-01-23T13:24:00.000+00:00'Tis a pity he's been yanked. He could well have ...'Tis a pity he's been yanked. He could well have become the R-rated poster child for the new bear market, if that is indeed what we are in.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72623538364935441982008-01-23T13:23:00.000+00:002008-01-23T13:23:00.000+00:00He may not be now, penniless as he is, but he sure...He may not be now, penniless as he is, but he sure was hummingly complacent when he dived into the gap. We'll change the word though. Make 'complacency', 'underestimation'.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90984689248600018362008-01-23T12:51:00.000+00:002008-01-23T12:51:00.000+00:00Hmm, I dunno CB; did that thing you sent last nigh...Hmm, I dunno CB; did that thing you sent last night look like complacency? (For the benefit of those reading these comments, it was a 7 minute video of a US retail trader watching the market on his Sunday night, complete with real time P/L.<BR/><BR/>Suffice to say that he did not watch the erosion of his eprsonal wealth with equanimity; every other word he uttered began with "F" and rhymed with "duck", "clucked", "bucking", or, pershap most poignantly, "sucker."<BR/><BR/>Alas, the video has been removed from youtube, perhaps because of the industrial language.)Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8971902711046687312008-01-23T11:47:00.000+00:002008-01-23T11:47:00.000+00:00M,It's a little disorienting when the biggest mark...M,<BR/><BR/>It's a little disorienting when the biggest market is closed on a day like Monday. In this case, the US chose to blythely ignore, today being the first day of the rest of our lives (apparently), and took its lead from the European Tuesday instead. Despite the recent events, I cannot get it out of my head that there remains a tremendous amount of complacency in the mix.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.com