tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2559627270056833729..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Wait Til Next Year!Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91635473047659194192009-12-08T20:13:54.724+00:002009-12-08T20:13:54.724+00:00"I think that the rise in Fed funds futures /..."I think that the rise in Fed funds futures /Eurodollar rates is going to be undone within a month or two."<br /><br />How about a day or two? EDM1 went from a low of 97.885 on Friday to a high of 98.150 today, reversing virtually all of the reaction to the payroll numbers.<br /><br />I bought a lot of Fed Fund futures on Friday (my favorite is May) post NFP (I didn't know that Ben was going to give another "lower for longer" speech, or I would have bought even more). I don't know when the Fed will start hiking, but it won't be at the January, March, or April meetings.<br /><br />"Spain, Italy, Ireland or Greece is in the same position as California."<br /><br />I object to lumping Ireland and Greece together. Ireland is taking (very painful) steps to solve their problems. Greece, on the other hand, is in total denial about what they need to do to fix things.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44090452964145382622009-12-07T20:43:21.289+00:002009-12-07T20:43:21.289+00:00".. allow it to smolder there until the stri...".. allow it to smolder there until the strike has completed"<br /><br />Comes in handy when they fancy a swift kebab on the way home, though.... Seriously, CM, a spot of rioting and burning is standard operating procedure in Europe. Anyone would think it never happened in the US. Oh yeah, Detroit, Chicago, Washington and LA...<br /><br />..... just keeping the "Anglocentric" world honest.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63022890488520047192009-12-07T20:38:57.062+00:002009-12-07T20:38:57.062+00:00the problems in europe are not in the EU itself .....the problems in europe are not in the EU itself ... think hungary, latvia, UK ... the real basket caseshear today guanno tommorrowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06381479272862902814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77424884095671959882009-12-07T20:37:33.208+00:002009-12-07T20:37:33.208+00:00LB, haha, yes but we in the Anglosphere have the d...LB, haha, yes but we in the Anglosphere have the decency to clean up the burning rubble once it has accumulated outside the Parliament, not allow it to smolder there until the strike has completed.Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-192256473137600172009-12-07T20:07:21.717+00:002009-12-07T20:07:21.717+00:00"Fighting between riot police and protesters ..."Fighting between riot police and protesters left the streets ... littered with chunks of broken masonry and burning piles of garbage, which was not cleared away due to a strike by refuse collectors"<br /><br />Not unusual, happens a lot in Europe. Millwall v West Ham, for example.... just ask Macro Man.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50493719474446048232009-12-07T19:57:02.535+00:002009-12-07T19:57:02.535+00:00OK... so here's a ponzi scheme for you all.
O...OK... so here's a ponzi scheme for you all.<br /><br />Obama is now proposing that the US government use some TARP money (which is borrowed money, "off budget") to pay down the deficit.<br /><br />I think some dim-witted home owners already tried paying off their Mastercard with their visa card. <br /><br />Evidently, Obama thinks most bond traders are too slow to remember how that ended.Garynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53766559743849962862009-12-07T19:46:25.886+00:002009-12-07T19:46:25.886+00:00Well I appreciate the disagreement. My take away f...Well I appreciate the disagreement. My take away from today's news was that Greece is likely to be downgraded to BBB+, which would put it in the company of Mexico and Sprint-Nextel.<br /><br />ABC had a quote that summed up the EZ situation perfectly: "Fighting between riot police and protesters left the streets around central Syntagma Square littered with chunks of broken masonry and burning piles of garbage, which was not cleared away due to a strike by refuse collectors."Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16450313523267995952009-12-07T19:32:21.965+00:002009-12-07T19:32:21.965+00:00CM,
Wrong. It's actually being held together ...CM,<br /><br />Wrong. It's actually being held together by the ongoing illusion that they are all still independent nations. They aren't at any important economic level any more or less than is California. The coin flip over whether it blows up or not is two headed. Don't get on the wrong side of it.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8149054179351536732009-12-07T19:29:39.602+00:002009-12-07T19:29:39.602+00:00CM, if we do have a break-up of the EU there will ...CM, if we do have a break-up of the EU there will be many more things to worry about than the portfolio. <br /><br />US as a homogeneous entity? Cone on, even California isn't homogeneous. The folks in Eureka, CA have more in common with the inhabitants of Maine and Quebec than they do with people in LA.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49105871025196107522009-12-07T19:13:53.421+00:002009-12-07T19:13:53.421+00:00LB, the last two World Wars completely rearranged ...LB, the last two World Wars completely rearranged Europe, redrawn borders, new countries and all. Now the EU/ECB has discovered the magical combination that will forever keep Europe united a stable?<br /><br />J. Stalin: "A nation is a historically constituted, stable community of people, formed on the basis of a common language, territory, economic life, and psychological make-up manifested in a common culture."<br /><br />US is basically a homogeneous entity unlike the EU. No army, no unified bond market, it's basically being held together by Trichet's mellifluous fables.Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48185702065508996262009-12-07T18:58:27.583+00:002009-12-07T18:58:27.583+00:00think the comments are having technical difficulti...think the comments are having technical difficulties...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87755636711237411062009-12-07T18:58:10.820+00:002009-12-07T18:58:10.820+00:00Spain, Italy, Ireland or Greece is in the same pos...Spain, Italy, Ireland or Greece is in the same position as California. They have a local depression and are dependent on the largesse of others within the ECB, just as Nevada depends on the rest of the U.S. But the European monetary system will not collapse, any more than Florida will secede from the U.S.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32735168624144955092009-12-07T18:53:24.146+00:002009-12-07T18:53:24.146+00:00Anon @ 6:41, they could always pull a Dubai if thi...Anon @ 6:41, they could always pull a Dubai if things get dicey...Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22250732972509709242009-12-07T18:52:50.010+00:002009-12-07T18:52:50.010+00:00Anon 6:41
Its actually very easy for all the bask...Anon 6:41<br /><br />Its actually very easy for all the basket cases in Europe to eject.<br /><br />They each make a new currency (peso, lira, seashells, whatever) that is equal to a Euro at launch. This isn't crazy, as the current currency of those countries is equal to a Euro (by definition). Their debt is denominated in Euros ... next minute it is denominated in Peso-Liras.<br /><br />Like all sovereign debt that is "risk free", if you don't like those terms -- a bureaucrat will be pleased to tell you how little your opinion matters. Also, its greedy capitalists like yourself that made the poor people of this country have to take these measures; perhaps we should arrest you and pay you nothing?<br /><br />Once the "Replacement Euro" (by whatever name) is launched, then they start hurling money out of helicopters until it is worthless...<br /><br />Unfortunately, this is FAR from the first time we have seen this movie. Sovereign defaults are a common occurrence throughout history.<br /><br />To paraphrase Peter Lynch, governments need to be set up so that any idiot can run them -- because sooner rather than later any idiot will.Garynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79745690065166549882009-12-07T18:41:41.729+00:002009-12-07T18:41:41.729+00:00Crisis Management,
How would they pay back all th...Crisis Management,<br /><br />How would they pay back all their Euro denominated debt in their newly created and extremely devalued currency if they elected to leave?<br /><br />I'm sure Italy is longing for the days when it could just devalue the lira....alas no longer an option.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36749727985669464022009-12-07T18:33:50.236+00:002009-12-07T18:33:50.236+00:00Treasuries have already made up a significant frac...Treasuries have already made up a significant fraction of their Friday losses as Helicopter Ben highlights continued weakness in the economy. Clearly many traders agree with the point of view espoused above by Donlast.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22866851594941826312009-12-07T17:42:45.042+00:002009-12-07T17:42:45.042+00:00Certainly appears that Greece is the fly in the Eu...Certainly appears that Greece is the fly in the Euro's ointment. Nary a day goes by without the anarchists setting off an explosion or burning something down.<br /><br />Their ideological cousins in the PASOK seem to be following a similar course of action from inside the corridors of power.<br /><br />Socialist basket cases like Greece and Spain are indeed threatening the stability of the Euro, and it might be best for all of us if they would one day hit the eject button.Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13364511609744549292009-12-07T17:32:21.327+00:002009-12-07T17:32:21.327+00:00"So given Mr Market's ability to see into..."So given Mr Market's ability to see into the future, one wonders when these factors will begin to be discounted?2 ..the banks have made no headway since Sep options expiry and the financial secondary's have been sidways as well from Oct. In that sense they may already be discounting some future reporting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77502184097038074482009-12-07T16:58:12.902+00:002009-12-07T16:58:12.902+00:00Next year will be interesting, indeed.
2010 will...Next year will be interesting, indeed. <br /><br />2010 will bring many new challenges: one or more quarters in which the banks report earnings that will include limited trading profits (for Q4, 2009 and Q1, 2020), retail earnings reflecting weak or flat holiday sales, another dead winter in the malls as consumer savings continue to increase, another spring of dead (North East US) or lower priced (West) housing sales and then the first complete set of corporate earnings reports (for Q2, 2010) for which there are no easy comps. <br /><br />So given Mr Market's ability to see into the future, one wonders when these factors will begin to be discounted? Note that this analysis assumes an entire winter and spring devoid of external credit shocks, muni defaults, bank reorganizations, bondholder haircuts, sovereign defaults or other swans of whatever hue.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65954461909751951132009-12-07T16:11:07.200+00:002009-12-07T16:11:07.200+00:00Just wait until next year...
According to the US ...Just wait until next year...<br /><br />According to the US Treasury, slightly more than 25% of home "owners" who refi'd under the government's programs are already behind on payments.<br /><br />Just wait until next year: down goes FHA... down go GNMA bonds... the ostrich approach to managing bad loans just doesn't workAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3053140662310852652009-12-07T15:29:04.773+00:002009-12-07T15:29:04.773+00:00Perhaps 'thetrader' might have got more tr...Perhaps 'thetrader' might have got more traction with a less overblown moniker...I mean, not just any old trader, but rather THE trader. That leaves the rest of us feeling a little, well, left back...VandalsStoleMyHandlenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46238779821584155672009-12-07T15:26:10.449+00:002009-12-07T15:26:10.449+00:00I'd like to selectively reiterate what MM stat...I'd like to selectively reiterate what MM stated on Friday - especially to LB, Anon posing at thetrader, etc.<br /><br />I find it most discouraging that on a blog of this quality this message needs to be repeated.<br /><br />*****************************<br />Lads (and lasses),<br /><br />While I am quite glad that we've established a lively little community here, please try to remain gentlemen (and ladies.) We've established a discourse here on all things macro that I think is pretty good, and I want to ensure that we avoid the "yahoo message board mentality", i.e 10y ROOLZ! GLD SUX!!!<br /><br />So please try and keep it civil and retain a collegial tone <br /><br />I also think it's important that different viewpoints are encouraged; <br /><br />I don't want this board labeled....I'd much rather have it be known as a "smart" place where different viewpoints can be debated. <br /><br />So in sum, play nicely, avoid the emotional rollercoaster, and don't get personal. To paraphrase the immortal Ice T: hate the argument, not the arguer.<br /><br />***********************************Paxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42834082716551752262009-12-07T15:22:36.680+00:002009-12-07T15:22:36.680+00:00MM
When I'm down and behind I tend to go long...MM<br /><br />When I'm down and behind I tend to go long. That cost me 300bp at least this year.<br /><br />Sounds like you have a game plan, with your eye on the next game.Stevenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66312382225015691162009-12-07T15:14:03.807+00:002009-12-07T15:14:03.807+00:00MM,
At least you arent a Redskins fan.
Not sure ...MM,<br /><br />At least you arent a Redskins fan.<br /><br />Not sure about any Macro Steeler correllations though... you may need to unplug for a bit, or go beat the piss out of an everlast bag.<br /><br />Ahh...<br /><br />Another day, another Leftback hater. Cheerio.<br /><br />The jobs number on Friday struck me as, well, a lie. At best, slightly dishonest.I-Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04195994595829190923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43130521188135632282009-12-07T15:10:13.249+00:002009-12-07T15:10:13.249+00:00Hi MM,
I often read your blog and find it very in...Hi MM,<br /><br />I often read your blog and find it very interesting and informative. Thanks for taking the time to write it so regularly and keeping it light hearted and entertaining. <br /><br />I was hoping yourself, and the other chaps who use this board could offer some advice: I'm currently 15-months in to a grad career in sales at a large bank. I've got an offer to move to a smaller bank onto a grad programme where I could focus more on trading. <br /><br />From your perch, would you do it? Why did you move about from different bits of the business?Dazed and Confusednoreply@blogger.com