tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post24506627383014824..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Another look at US equitiesMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74261180156876982102015-06-04T02:58:40.216+01:002015-06-04T02:58:40.216+01:00anon @ 2:00 you may be a sadder case if you don...anon @ 2:00 you may be a sadder case if you don't at least consider the possibility that Nico is right, and you are not. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48252915146611555942015-06-04T02:00:28.828+01:002015-06-04T02:00:28.828+01:00Nico is a sad caseNico is a sad caseAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1710037040802900262015-06-04T00:46:32.920+01:002015-06-04T00:46:32.920+01:00If we do have a sustained sell-off in bonds (see L...<i>If we do have a sustained sell-off in bonds (see LB's post above), what other asset class might funds rotate to? Equities perhaps?</i><br /><br />I don't think it works like that. Deleveraging in a fixed income book does not imply there is a pile of money that needs to find a home elsewhere. Especially this direction - its not uncommon to run a substantially higher leverage ratio in FI vs other asset classes.<br /><br />I still think stocks wiggle higher but its not because of a nice fundamental reason - its just purely momentum. If anything, all these guys who have been saying "stocks are cheap because rates are low" should be getting out there saying "stocks should be incrementally lower because rates are higher" - but I'm not going to hold my breath for that.<br /><br />Oh and by the way Bullard comments today seemed strange. "We are very close to all our objectives" - "Market is right to push back expectations because we are data dependent and the data stinks". That sounds a lot like their real objectives are "the data", and not the normal objectives of {employment, priceStability}. Or are they confident that there is a good forward-looking relationship between say retail sales and 6-month-out payrolls & inflation? Because I'm pretty sure thats just not the case.<br /><br />And the answer to "Why is monetary policy still at emergency levels" - "because have have not begun to normalize". Isn't that just dodging the question?<br /><br />These guys talk too much. Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23387041568880962042015-06-03T23:53:11.834+01:002015-06-03T23:53:11.834+01:00So equities went up again today. For May, equities...So equities went up again today. For May, equities are up across the board - heavily for JP & some US, modestly for EU. For 2015 to-date, equities have clearly been the way forward. Basically, the 'FM model' has out-performed. Period. (Sorry Nico et al).<br /><br />My personal strategy in equities was nicely summarised sometime ago by washedup (a short-term, more risk averse approach to BTFD). As you all know, buying dips in a strong trend will work until it doesn't. With tight risk management, one will be long & wrong on the last dip, but there will be no trucks to the face. As outlined before, I have frequently missed portions of each move & left plenty on the table, but nevertheless the approach has worked v nicely.<br /><br />I also saw this today: 'Gundlach: Fed won't raise rates this year http://cnb.cx/1GksRa9'<br />Seems he is now also using the FM model on rates :)<br /><br />Following on from which, FI has been interesting the last couple of days. If we do have a sustained sell-off in bonds (see LB's post above), what other asset class might funds rotate to? Equities perhaps?FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9289264396696397572015-06-03T22:47:34.242+01:002015-06-03T22:47:34.242+01:00hi guys...
real collapse in Fi with euro as widow ...hi guys...<br />real collapse in Fi with euro as widow maker...<br />but what rates?? everything post 2 year space, with huge repricing in long tails...<br />now we have 3m US fwds post 2020 near 4%... are they so expensive???<br />isn't steepening enough now?? <br />when someone will realize that also to be sat at -0.2% in schatz isn't so bulletproof??<br />huge divergence between FI/FX vol and equity vol.... also HY US beginning to fell the impact but spoos obviously up... <br />smelling big VaR stops to be filled...TheBondStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15654760354283741885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73158558952532639252015-06-03T22:07:17.277+01:002015-06-03T22:07:17.277+01:00I don't believe I've ever looked a right n...I don't believe I've ever looked a right numpty...but then again numpty-looking, I'm rather sure, wasn't common where I grew up..Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35907973612485617122015-06-03T20:33:07.899+01:002015-06-03T20:33:07.899+01:00the trend in FI definitely seems strong to the dow...the trend in FI definitely seems strong to the downside and will probably surprise people by how far it could get (more a hunch than anything), so I basically agree with u LB. The weird thing to me today just can't figure out why this market thinks global bonds and commodities should selloff in the face of bad growth data, but the euro must be bought along with US tech stocks - not every puzzle can be solved (I know, flows, leads, lags etc etc) but one of these markets seems horribly wrong. I am beginning to think equities may be a tad expensive for the 'stagflationary' message being telegraphed by these other asset classes, but clearly the FM model output trumps that.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21709312049868093032015-06-03T19:55:32.492+01:002015-06-03T19:55:32.492+01:00Weakness in US fixed income not complete. USTs sel...Weakness in US fixed income not complete. USTs selling off alongside bunds, and that's a dynamic that is well worth paying attention to, b/c those rates came down in tandem, and they will rise in tandem. One's thinking brain really fancies a piece of this action, and is ready for standing outside in the downpour with Kevlar gloves, but one's feeling brain is saying no, don't be a complete prat, you'll get struck by lightning you prick, just sit and wait, b/c if they fix Greece over the w/e then you're looking at another 50bps melt-up in 10y easy which would be massively Cold Steel and you'll look a right numpty, and this way after all the wailing and gnashing of teeth you can just wade in and fill yer boots with bonds and rate-sensitive divis, old son, and then you can sit on yer arse all Summer, b/c whatever bollocks is on telly, the US economy is cack. Not back, cack.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89018746527264229582015-06-03T18:00:42.048+01:002015-06-03T18:00:42.048+01:00FT: unless it's different this timeFT: unless it's different this time Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45759218071160698632015-06-03T17:59:36.362+01:002015-06-03T17:59:36.362+01:00FT: rates up , weak stats....hummmm equities anyon...FT: rates up , weak stats....hummmm equities anyone?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56922600399856620842015-06-03T16:01:01.907+01:002015-06-03T16:01:01.907+01:00F$$k off, Nico , I'm going to smash the son of...F$$k off, Nico , I'm going to smash the son of God into next year.amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73702322822352801292015-06-03T15:52:01.658+01:002015-06-03T15:52:01.658+01:00just remember, nico...opportunity cost costs a lot...just remember, nico...opportunity cost costs a lot more than you might think.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9742463621493605822015-06-03T14:43:50.338+01:002015-06-03T14:43:50.338+01:00Reviewing all time highs...healthcare providers/ph...Reviewing all time highs...healthcare providers/pharma cleaning up under Obamacare<br /><br />https://pinboard.in/u:maoxian/b:1c3190c5e9f0Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70191793568310752842015-06-03T13:52:50.635+01:002015-06-03T13:52:50.635+01:00am not a permabear im only realistic (in EUROPE). ...am not a permabear im only realistic (in EUROPE). <br /><br />they have broken Greece.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34417080946463771002015-06-03T12:14:59.319+01:002015-06-03T12:14:59.319+01:00I'm done with you, and I'll do whatever ta...I'm done with you, and I'll do whatever takes move onamplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52602255467059316102015-06-03T12:10:57.531+01:002015-06-03T12:10:57.531+01:00Do me a favor , take my offer up , then everybody ...Do me a favor , take my offer up , then everybody can move on.amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81896454753011297022015-06-03T09:44:22.168+01:002015-06-03T09:44:22.168+01:00How about it son, one on one , you win , you take ...How about it son, one on one , you win , you take cash, I win, I'm free. amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24463325041284042412015-06-03T09:37:33.518+01:002015-06-03T09:37:33.518+01:00NO guys, you missing the point..I need to go one o...NO guys, you missing the point..I need to go one on one with the son of God who invents these talks and discussions and win my freedom back. no idea .amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77834614276676298302015-06-03T08:18:02.248+01:002015-06-03T08:18:02.248+01:00My boredom with the mkts has crystalised into conc...My boredom with the mkts has crystalised into concern. So if I have to take a side with the Stalin of the bears ..nico. or the Pol Pot of the bulls.. Funny Money... I'm going with Nico.<br /><br /> http://polemics-pains.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/a-worry-of-small-things.htmlPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89063370914675599392015-06-03T07:17:14.792+01:002015-06-03T07:17:14.792+01:00party pooper here, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2007, 2009 ma...party pooper here, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2007, 2009 market turns veteran<br /><br />the day you acknowledge stupidity by giving it a new name (radio FM), a truck will hit you face. i am saving every bit of such forum where you can see rather intelligent people give in to nonsense, and embrace it. I am saving it for the day when i finally hire a junior and i need to train him on how extreme sentiment/herding savages your soul.<br /><br />we are full on February 2000. In a couple of years you will feel so dumb because you forgot that investment all boils down to where you sold, it is not about how many months or years you were right to follow the trend. It is the money you got out of it or namely, YOUR ENTRY LEVEL.<br /><br />i am old school and still think that nothing has changed, that the market will destroy anyone who bought above 1580 (spoo), and probably the one who bought under, because they will feel like, 'no way i am selling at break even after a 30% correction' 'i'll wait another couple of years' and at spoo 1076 after 50% down or so, they will take their loss too.<br />hing.<br /><br />i will repeat that thhere's never been a more crucial time to know your investment timeframe, and put effective stops in the machine, before things get funky, to avoid the deer in the headlight thingy. The only thing that worries me is that Roubini just dusted off his bear suit again, the odd of him calling an important top for the second time in a row, knowing how easily he gets distracted by poontang, and how easy 'FM' poontang is in New York those days...<br /><br />they say never short a dull market and in 2015 spoos are displaying the same dullness only, at a lingering top. good luckNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65372235365706232832015-06-03T04:43:21.215+01:002015-06-03T04:43:21.215+01:00The action in bunds today was quite strong, but no...The action in bunds today was quite strong, but noone could be bothered to even notice. I'm positioned for a nice Wed/Fri set of Shenzen-style rallies in spoos/dax based on the ever-bullish Greek story and another goldilocks NFP. We already have the fed apologists out pushing back September.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46456096603169745662015-06-03T00:23:47.693+01:002015-06-03T00:23:47.693+01:00Notes from the hammock, continued..... anyone got ...Notes from the hammock, continued..... anyone got meaningful observations on today's EURUSD move, other than "loads of punters were short and then after the EZ inflation data, cor guv'nor, it was bend over and cop this lot of Cold Steel, innit"?<br /><br />Inclined to remain hammock-bound until something truly cataclysmic happens like, um, VIX > 15... zzzz. The thing about hammock trading is that your reactions do tend to dull a little with time and after a while you forget what the game plan is. To recap, what we at Falling Knife Capital think might occur is somewhat similar to our host and mentor's views, to wit, better US data, mini rate spike and equity dislocation....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49372901997981153442015-06-02T22:59:43.886+01:002015-06-02T22:59:43.886+01:00Bernanke also said that US housing could not go do...Bernanke also said that US housing could not go down en masse, so he has a bit of form when it comes to dubious assertions on asset valuation. To answer your earlier question washedup, no the model does not explicitly capture liquidity provision in the ROTW; however, insofar as those influence the price of US fixed income securities, they do influence the model. And if they don't influence the price of US fixed income, I don't see how they should be expected to influence the price of US equities.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49634495268340148122015-06-02T22:20:18.149+01:002015-06-02T22:20:18.149+01:00The funny money model is up there with the greats,...The funny money model is up there with the greats, BS, Merton, HJM and CAPM - note that every model's greatness is measured by the ratio between its profoundness (or is it profundity?) and its simplicity.<br />To confer instant street cred,I would support a motion to start calling it the FM model.<br />As for Bernanke's comment - is he then OK with us shorting cash at 2123? he is extrapolating the previous business cycle 'peak' not the previous business cycle 'fair value', isn't he?<br />Who am I to argue with a princeton whiz, my FM model says BTFD!!washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4066475129126588702015-06-02T20:02:41.963+01:002015-06-02T20:02:41.963+01:00".. the Funny Money model... " lol
Can ...".. the Funny Money model... " lol<br /><br />Can I refer you to the Ben Bernank, who tells us today that "stocks aren't expensive"... (lol)<br />http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/06/02/janet-who-ben-bernanke-says-stocks-arent-expensive/<br /><br />FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.com