tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2151941098738581487..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Bitcoin: Is It a Currency, or Something Else?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84549633610398774772019-10-09T13:31:10.205+01:002019-10-09T13:31:10.205+01:00Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency know as a Digital curr...Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency know as a Digital currency Bitcoin is good way of innovative payment network, Bitcoin is very secure and fast network, if you want to know about Bitcoin update you can visit at https://cryptocallsupport.com/ here you will get bitcoin update and news, our Bitcoin exchange Customer support team help you if you face any problem dial today Bitcoin Customer Service Support Number 1-833-313-7111| Bitcoin Exchange Customer Support Number| Bitcoin Helpline Number| Bitcoin Support Phone Number| Bitcoin Customer Service Phone Number| Get Bitcoin Support Here. <br />Visit: https://cryptocallsupport.com/why-is-bitcoin-falling-below-8k/<br />Cryptocallsupporthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07093046763910884702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13491962058626998872017-09-16T05:31:54.015+01:002017-09-16T05:31:54.015+01:00Simple argument to buy Bitcoin. Where else can you...Simple argument to buy Bitcoin. Where else can you make 100x returns in short period. It's a big bubble but timing it is hard. Much easier to always leave some long. But this China news is big. <br /><br />But Bitcoin isn't going away. Why own gold which hasn't gone anywhere in a while. Buy Bitcoin. Seriously. Why not put a small allocation. Or make a big speculation. Bitcoin appeals to many players, so you have to understand them all, since it's a long only market. The technology is a big deal even if it consumes energy and isn't as efficient as a database. The point is that it's open, decentralized and rules based. What do you prefer, the rand, yuan, real, euro, dollar, gold. Sure there could be a new version of Bitcoin which renders the current one useless, but for now that doesn't seem to be a worry. <br /><br />Also the comments of no interest , capital markets etc show just how much potential there is. Both are already established but yet not well understood..<br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20920876695034916062017-09-15T05:37:37.844+01:002017-09-15T05:37:37.844+01:00There have been derivatives on this since around 2...There have been derivatives on this since around 2014 and you <i>can</i> infer a yield curve on it from the futures. <br /><br />That said; is there a bubble? Probably. Is herd stupidity infinite? Probably.SRXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08893693527065807228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12436976050261655332017-09-15T00:06:09.746+01:002017-09-15T00:06:09.746+01:00Stepped away to listen to Hendry's interview a...Stepped away to listen to Hendry's interview and returned to see the news on TOP. Feeling like putting on Mozart's Requiem or something. Really too bad.<br /><br />In the interview, incidentally, he predicted the demise of global macro as a strategy, premised on low real returns in bonds. Reminded me of Alex Gurevich's chart of total returns to the carry trade in the 10Y. A huge tailwind to any fund having that trade in their book the last three decades ...<br /><br />So, is global macro dead without a viable carry trade at its core, as Hugh suggests?<br /><br /><br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35098656076867191722017-09-14T17:22:27.082+01:002017-09-14T17:22:27.082+01:00I think that highlights it is a commodity, not a c...I think that highlights it is a commodity, not a currency. There is a relatively definable cost of production. There are people that can and will find value in the product or *service*. And there are people who will find value in the anonymity. The latter are the only group I can see with an incentive to be structurally long--and even then they should have the ability to rotate/launder the position back into the international banking system.EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12580318234685287692017-09-14T15:27:44.401+01:002017-09-14T15:27:44.401+01:00*lol* I knew you would love it. Joking aside, the ...*lol* I knew you would love it. Joking aside, the key takeaway for me was on p. 18:<br /><br />"This pricing rule shows that profit-maximizing fees for each side of the market are equal to the cost of providing the service (Ci), adjusted downward by the external benefit to the other side, and adjusted upward by a factor ((1 − Fi)/fi) that is related to the elasticity of participation."<br /><br />To rephrase it in a unscientific, i.e. understandable way: the price depends on costs for production (hardware, electricity), demand and the velocity of the transactions. Not unlike to a commodity approach, but somehow mixed with the usual PT=MV.Eddiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18011114950206155472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91899056455044161742017-09-14T14:16:30.936+01:002017-09-14T14:16:30.936+01:00Yeah thanks for this paper--I read as much as I co...Yeah thanks for this paper--I read as much as I could tolerate before my second cup of coffee but did drop it in evernote for future reference...I think it somewhat conflates "price" with "value". They use the model to determine the exchange rate and use demand from "forward-looking investors" as one of the elements of the model. That's like saying "the price is high because lots of people are buying it." Seems like they have a model for determining a price--but that's not so hard when you can write off your alpha to "forward looking investors" regulating supply. They make the metaphor of a high-inflation, high-vol currency--which is relatively apt--but carry is zero like gold. Intrinsic value or underlying factors are to some extent the inverse of global monetary policy. Good stuff, but I'll stick to usd/ars and 20% annual carry, thanks. <br /><br />That's the price--what I want to understand better is value--the intro also points out that online prices instantly adjust to the local currency. There aren't any trade flows settled in BTC, and no responsible treasury manager is going to hold BTC without that offsetting liability. But there is indeed value in the *system* of the distributed ledger and ability to transact outside the traditional banking system, even if you never run a long or short position. EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69424242679906160412017-09-14T13:03:43.123+01:002017-09-14T13:03:43.123+01:00Well, if you can't spell it out to me.....good...Well, if you can't spell it out to me.....good luck with your partner!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46565973154903730512017-09-14T12:48:51.334+01:002017-09-14T12:48:51.334+01:00At tipple! fuck off. What are you going to tell yo...At tipple! fuck off. What are you going to tell your partner where you're been for last 5 days!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58943598442451426692017-09-14T12:45:43.887+01:002017-09-14T12:45:43.887+01:00well I do like a tipple now and then.,
well I do like a tipple now and then., <br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74660577904752869502017-09-14T12:38:55.128+01:002017-09-14T12:38:55.128+01:00You!You!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42446849256613733572017-09-14T12:37:46.041+01:002017-09-14T12:37:46.041+01:00Go on, tell me pal, who the fuck am I going to get...Go on, tell me pal, who the fuck am I going to get on it with over there!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25634941227959603152017-09-14T11:50:26.705+01:002017-09-14T11:50:26.705+01:00I don't tip for money...I tip to get on it.I don't tip for money...I tip to get on it. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22138780586027474142017-09-14T11:42:10.963+01:002017-09-14T11:42:10.963+01:00There's our pal , Polemic, back in town. How&#...There's our pal , Polemic, back in town. How'd you over the Ascot carnival just gone. I member you asking for tips here once. No tips for you pal! not ever, and I'd love for you to jump over my desk ask one on one. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4707544435012174502017-09-14T11:07:16.100+01:002017-09-14T11:07:16.100+01:00THanks Shawn seems as though we are on the same pa...THanks Shawn seems as though we are on the same page and appreciate the tuning of metaphors. <br /><br />Eddie - Thanks for that paper. <br />I tried to read it looking for the salient point but ended up deciding that the paper itself fell into the black hope of bcyrptologic itself .. HUGE amount of theory and wiggly symbol equations used to bamboozle the reader into thinking this is really clever but at the end of the day there is f all to it. Long intellect yet short value. ie . it still didn't tell anyone what the stuff is worth <br /><br />caveat - I didn't go and research what any of those equations actually meant because there was no conclusion for me to go back to substantiate. And I wouldn't have anyway. <br /><br />Now back to other stuff - base metals rolling over? Copper iron ? telling us something about the reflation trade in general or just China's control over commodity prices? <br /><br /><br /><br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2077733611058329352017-09-14T08:05:00.565+01:002017-09-14T08:05:00.565+01:00Re intrinsic value of Bitcoin and friends...
On t...Re intrinsic value of Bitcoin and friends...<br /><br />On the Value of Virtual Currencies (De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 521)<br /><br />https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2842557Eddiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18011114950206155472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49200192482111624512017-09-14T01:24:57.282+01:002017-09-14T01:24:57.282+01:00Bitcoin. My question is: putting aside all the spe...Bitcoin. My question is: putting aside all the speculative/investment transactions, what is this thing actually used for? I presume a large portion of non-speculative transactions facilitate illegal activities, so I want nothing to do with it.<br /><br />Back to old school ...<br /><br />Where to begin? Last Friday just had that feeling. Too much fear and dread. Sold the long leg of +TY/-RX trade, but put back on this week. Shortly after the open Sunday I shorted TU, just as a "front-end is too flat" trade. It probably is, too! (seriously, recession risk seems low and the global context supportive, inflation is likely to turn up a bit, Yellen/Dudley seem to want to hike when the data next gives them a chance with a view to getting to 0% real). Since then, also sold my USDJPY RKI put spreads and have gone long USDJPY as a carry-efficient bet on some closing of the striking global PMI vs 10Y divergence.<br /><br />Hasn't been all good trades. Gored in EURUSD. Got drawn into a cash long after the Draghi presser, thinking it cleared the way for the rally to carry on. For a time it did. And then it faded and I didn't cut quickly enough. The EURUSD RKI call spreads I have also looking less good now. And didn't pick the best spot to get short EURNOK. Hanging on as I'm not convinced one low inflation print has changed the narrative back to H1's.<br /><br />In EM, my biggest (still modest) position is in USDARS. Initiated a couple days after the primary result and added the other day as I saw further evidence the currency has found its feet/the momentum has broken.<br /><br />Gold seems too high relative to real rates and USDCNY, but not anywhere near high enough to make me think we're seeing some regime change. So looks like a fade here. More recently, I have found the CNH-settled HK gold contract and planned CNH-settled oil contract stories to be interesting, but probably not relevant yet. Also, the North Korea is to be watched for its US-China relations implications. I still presume when Mnuchin says [if China doesn't implement the UN sanctions]: "We will put additional sanctions on them and prevent them from accessing the U.S. and international dollar system," he's talking about sanctions against particular offenders like Bank of Dandong, not Chinese companies broadly? All this "weaponizing" of the dollar, now against China, makes me nervous about gold being used more. But for now, I still think the old regime obtains.<br /><br />Not much showing for anti-Macron protesters today. The French perhaps questioning how much "Liberté, égalité, fraternité" there is in this "two-tier" labor market CGT fights for? But maybe I'm all wrong about that. Care to open my eyes?<br /><br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71509586263672561302017-09-13T22:58:44.633+01:002017-09-13T22:58:44.633+01:00If you watch the talking heads on CNBC respond to ...If you watch the talking heads on CNBC respond to what Dimon said, they say things like "the genie is out of the bottle." So get on this unstoppable rocketship before it reaches the moon, I guess. <br /><br />Maybe it was just a poorly written article but per your point... the overstock.com guy doesn't explain 1) why they hold anything in BTC and don't convert it to USD immediately upon receipt. They take in the BTC asset and have a USD liability on the other side of the balance sheet. Maybe I didn't show up for treasury management 101 that day but that would be a fireable offense at any normal firm, or 2) how accepting BTC makes it "easier for people to spend their money". <br /><br />Re: some of the arguments made in the comment section of your article, I'd throw my lot in with the counterargument that there is an infinite number of potential competitors, and thus, supply. I can see the network effects argument, and maybe that will eventually imply some intrinsic value similar to gold--I might update your steam engine metaphor to point out that MySpace had network effects...for a while. And AOL had cash flow, market share and the "walled garden" for a while...And GM had unbeatable economies of scale in the 60s, and...<br /><br />lastly re: the point on electricity consumption, the Venezuelan government threw some guys in jail for running a mining operation using a ton of electricity heavily subsidized with money they don't have. I'm guessing that won't be the last we hear of that kind of thing. EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52967275752158461982017-09-13T22:11:48.303+01:002017-09-13T22:11:48.303+01:00Right . I'll wade in here as bitcoin is one of...Right . I'll wade in here as bitcoin is one of my pet bugbears. <br />Here you go - <br />Covers a lot of what you have touched on and easier to put this link in than rewrite<br /><br />https://polemics-pains.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/bitcoin-pick-number-any-number.html - Its basically like investing in Trevithick's first steam engine <br /><br />And yesterday - covering the energy it uses - consumes same power as Jordan annually just to mine. <br />https://polemics-pains.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/ramblings-of-mad-man.html<br /><br /><br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83155560322421890322017-09-13T21:53:30.733+01:002017-09-13T21:53:30.733+01:00One thing BTC is, is a global, public ledger. Thi...One thing BTC is, is a global, public ledger. This is just insane. Everyone in the world can see I'm buying a pepsi?!? If you try to anonymize transactions through "coin tumblers", you just look like you're laundering money, which you are.. I don't trust BTC because of that. Perhaps a different crypto-currency that supports transaction privacy somehow, like Monero. If the dark web thwarts its attackers, then perhaps anonymous transactions can be conducted outside the view of the government, though I suspect they will attack the whole system successfully in the long run.LDiracDeltahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16093438666347733550noreply@blogger.com