tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2100030172990050460..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Down the hole?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45429781527993302632016-09-01T21:34:22.590+01:002016-09-01T21:34:22.590+01:00Good Day !!
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You can contact me via e-mail: ptlender01@gmail.com<br />Yours Sincerely, <br />Miss Nancy Leonard(MD).<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70136690577032506122016-08-23T13:53:14.862+01:002016-08-23T13:53:14.862+01:00A minor quibble, but your GDPNow vs. Actual GDP ch...A minor quibble, but your GDPNow vs. Actual GDP chart uses the final revised GDP figures (including the periodic comprehensive multi-year revision), not the original release at the time of the advance GDP print--which is what the Atlanta Fed estimate is shooting for. This may have been intentional, but if not, it does seem a certain data provider's "actual release" field isn't pulling the correct values at the moment.<br /><br />Oddly enough, the cumulative difference with the actual advance values still comes to -1.4 pp, but even so, isn't the appropriate nudge a -0.1 pp average underestimate (on a quarterly basis), not a full 1.4? Most of the cumulative miss comes from 4 quarters in the first half of the quarterly sequence.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46146484841897474532016-08-23T13:14:01.777+01:002016-08-23T13:14:01.777+01:00It isn't that hard to see what's happening...It isn't that hard to see what's happening globally..as most realize, ultra-low interest rates for a prolonged period of time are hurtful to the average Joe on the street. Not just pensions, but for a reasonable return on their money with reasonable risk. Wonder why Joe is avoiding the stock market? They've experienced two 50% corrections in less than 2 decades...putting money to work here...is that a "resonable risk"?<br /><br />I imagine central banks will continue until we're all broke. I can also imagine inventive ways to create new government revenue in a time of eternal ZIRP...why not increase taxes on equity transactions rather than profits? (If that is the only game making money.....?)<br /><br />The possibilities are as numerous as the stars..Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78039445540149454752016-08-23T11:20:50.535+01:002016-08-23T11:20:50.535+01:00Anon 10:20 this is not a UK problem alone. People ...Anon 10:20 this is not a UK problem alone. People in their 30s today won't live to see a pension, but they sure will get the benefit of enjoying paying ever increasing pension security payments. As the future payoff for these go down, they effectively transform into a 100% tax, money which you will never see during your life again. In many European socialist countries these can be up to 6% of the gross income, on top of your normal tax rate which is very very high imo and will be going up. Just another consumer group to get completely whacked. A complete catastrophe.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38730681717330282572016-08-23T10:20:00.693+01:002016-08-23T10:20:00.693+01:00Nothing but good news, BoE ZIRP/QE is creating a m...Nothing but good news, BoE ZIRP/QE is creating a massive pension crisis in the UK:<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-23/u-k-pension-plan-shortfalls-have-investors-digging-for-answersAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74470817446761155642016-08-23T09:46:22.052+01:002016-08-23T09:46:22.052+01:00US state pension funds (South Carolina, Hawaii etc...US state pension funds (South Carolina, Hawaii etc) have resorted to selling premium in size on the SP500. We all know that this produces a good yield, and that any risks are minimal (as AIG found out during the GFC). Anyway, when they go bust, the taxpayer can just bail out no? You're welcome.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48219539965875427222016-08-23T09:41:43.182+01:002016-08-23T09:41:43.182+01:00US national debt is $21 trillion. In 2000 it was a...US national debt is $21 trillion. In 2000 it was about $3-4 trillion. There is a problem with paying higher interest rates on such a large amount of debt. We already pay enough interest to China to fund their entire army’s budget. You're welcome.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61032101238548338322016-08-23T08:03:26.144+01:002016-08-23T08:03:26.144+01:00Probably the sequel to Mantas' Death by Metal....Probably the sequel to Mantas' Death by Metal... Chuck Schuldiner's humble beginning.Eddienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15853852613240275422016-08-23T07:04:20.545+01:002016-08-23T07:04:20.545+01:00Death by Theta!
Feel like that should be an album...Death by Theta!<br /><br />Feel like that should be an album name or something.<br /><br />AWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56054473032265643902016-08-23T02:08:21.567+01:002016-08-23T02:08:21.567+01:00http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/08/22/investors-...http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/08/22/investors-begin-to-worry-about-the-long-term-prospects-of-a-government-controlled-japanese-stock-market/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52643700101865069932016-08-23T01:43:18.053+01:002016-08-23T01:43:18.053+01:00they last seven years have been death by theta.
th...they last seven years have been death by theta.<br />that said, i think bonds look vulnerable on that chart, shorts covering/capitulation on the break above 170.<br />fed continues to hog the spotlight and "facts" on the ground are good enough to act anytime, while bond sentiment is pretty extended.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9090502413035333352016-08-23T01:29:52.764+01:002016-08-23T01:29:52.764+01:00LB, not sure I would view oil as you do.
Yes, OPEC...LB, not sure I would view oil as you do.<br />Yes, OPEC production freeze/cuts are BS, but that was just to spook shorts. Have been inventory drowns for several months now, production is declining and we are in weak shoulder season. If I were OPEC i would spike the price a bit in current shoulder season and then let time work.Flowthroughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15148652861530523764noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32044940433280192772016-08-23T00:55:25.012+01:002016-08-23T00:55:25.012+01:00We will have QE for the rest of your lives... why?...We will have QE for the rest of your lives... why? Simply because with $20 TRILLION of US sovgn debt, any reversion to long-term avg rates would implode the world economy. Thus the Fed (and other central banks) are PRAYING for inflation, and doing ALL in their power to make it happen. Boosting asset prices via endless QE, ZIRP/NIRP etc. Eventually this will trickle into wages, ensuring a soft default on US govt, corp and private debt loads.<br /><br />You can take all your financial theory textbooks and burn them. Central Banks are the ONLY fundamentals in markets this past 6 years and for the foreseeable future.Armchair expertnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60416545806573231892016-08-22T21:06:33.886+01:002016-08-22T21:06:33.886+01:00August 2016 a.k.a "Death by Theta"August 2016 a.k.a "Death by Theta"Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67438033789939162822016-08-22T20:29:16.311+01:002016-08-22T20:29:16.311+01:00As much as I want to believe Yellen and company ar...As much as I want to believe Yellen and company are ready, willing and able to raise in September and perhaps in December, we have to remember that perhaps the PBoC isn't too thrilled with a rapid rise. Will they fire off a warning flare this time around like they did last August?<br /><br />At some point the endless ZIRP/NIRP/QE is going to eat its own tail - perhaps the glut in oil is the start of that process. With capital nearly free, pullingl hydrocarbons out of the ground to sell at a profit has been a good deal. When everyone jumps into this business it seems inevitable that oil prices will crash. With the crash in oil, will come a crash in the profit margins up and down the supply chain. This leads to sovereign debt crises in heavily indebted leveraged producers. This comes back to haunt banks and SWFs that have lots of exposure.<br /><br />In July of 2007, Citigroup's Chuck Prince famously said "“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing." He was out of Citigroup by November of that year.<br /><br /><br />MrBeachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53691118631715067692016-08-22T20:28:24.359+01:002016-08-22T20:28:24.359+01:00So 12YO HFM expects EZ returns on Spooz? Is he sh...So 12YO HFM expects EZ returns on Spooz? Is he short then?Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1436587455560522422016-08-22T20:01:40.065+01:002016-08-22T20:01:40.065+01:00@12yo: Whatevz….@12yo: Whatevz….Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86644924154560678652016-08-22T19:48:13.452+01:002016-08-22T19:48:13.452+01:00This market is so easy to trade that I've take...This market is so easy to trade that I've taken time away from the office, firstly for a baecation, and recently to further some political goals: <br />http://www.kmov.com/story/32807204/12-year-old-running-trump-campaign-office-in-colorado<br /><br />I note that US equities are still moving up however, so our thesis and positions look good. EZ-money. Laterz.<br />12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67029521485031069612016-08-22T19:36:28.193+01:002016-08-22T19:36:28.193+01:00Aside from the high correlation to 10y rates, and ...Aside from the high correlation to 10y rates, and my view on that, I am reconsidering my view on utilities after looking at relative performance... <br /><br />https://postimg.org/image/joimnjqq9/abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70681764637004910542016-08-22T19:14:37.697+01:002016-08-22T19:14:37.697+01:00I am adding shorts on SP500 here. Too much optimis...I am adding shorts on SP500 here. Too much optimism had been priced in, a correction is very close. My window is the next two weeks. If I am wrong, ready to cut loss and wait for another signal. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26555183748079276512016-08-22T18:30:55.330+01:002016-08-22T18:30:55.330+01:00With all the talk of "r-star", it's ...With all the talk of "r-star", it's fun to re-read Montier's piece:<br />https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/the-idolatry-of-interest-rates-part-i-chasing-will-'o-the-wisp.pdf?sfvrsn=4<br /><br />Slow days. Lightly positioned this moment, outside Chinese-buyer merger arbitrage bets, which is a quasi-macro trade.<br /><br />Any thoughts on Chinese H shares, e.g. FXI? Ostensibly cheap market and PPI oya forecast to hit zero later this year, after >4 years of deflation.<br />johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38620801657778752562016-08-22T17:45:23.881+01:002016-08-22T17:45:23.881+01:00from a noted bond bear and Fed hater
http://www.c...from a noted bond bear and Fed hater<br /><br />http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/18/paul-singer-and-elliott-management-say-bond-market-breakdown-to-be-sudden-intense-and-large.html<br /><br />I wouldnt be surprised if Yellen makes a hawkish speech that equities rally on the back of financials and it would probably be extra good for EU equities in that case. Really depends on what the Bund in addition to US 10year does. But agree with LB, more of flattening trade in the end vs long endabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62534239920819428162016-08-22T17:15:25.687+01:002016-08-22T17:15:25.687+01:00@anon 5:04 - given how useless everyone's pred...@anon 5:04 - given how useless everyone's predictions have been, we have all collectively decided to focus on the venue, more specifically the piece of furniture from where the prediction is made rather than the forecast itself - so, given that you seem like a recent arrival to the board, we will give you another chance - do u say this from an armchair, hammock, office chair, or ottoman?washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89049928313883766822016-08-22T17:04:52.285+01:002016-08-22T17:04:52.285+01:00I will make a prediction here. My proprietary mode...I will make a prediction here. My proprietary model suggests that 19000 is a critical level(major top) for the Dow Jones index. I'm not calling a strategic short.. What I mean is that this bull market which has lasted for the past 7 years is effectively over. Maybe we have a few more puffs left in this market, but I would be very cautious in buying risk assets at this juncture. <br /><br />Now as to what will act as a catalyst.. I do not know. My guess is that since it was the CBs that got us here, it will be failure on their part that brings this market down. But then there is a lot of bricks in the wall of warry(China, Eurozone, recession in US) and any one of them could be the trigger.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62207411491914582942016-08-22T16:41:52.051+01:002016-08-22T16:41:52.051+01:00dude that's a lof of work from an armchairdude that's a lof of work from an armchairNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.com