tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2098905903271328606..comments2024-03-18T18:27:47.714+00:00Comments on Macro Man: I'm a CTA... Get Me Out of Here!Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger46125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85168158877039396342012-11-04T18:55:27.315+00:002012-11-04T18:55:27.315+00:00Nice piece of Bangla spam there. Now for some opin...Nice piece of Bangla spam there. Now for some opinion on the markets and issues ahead this week. This is a reasonably well-written although rather long winded analysis. <br /><br />All the succinct stuff is in the section right at the end:<br /><br /><a href="http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Jeff-Miller-Week-Ahead-121104.php" rel="nofollow"> The Week Ahead By Jeff Miller </a><br /><br />The gist of the argument is what we have been arguing here. Once election uncertainty is removed, risk on. No recession, fiscal fudge and many investors piled into the wrong instruments (bonds, gold and low dividend payers). Every risk is being touted in the media except the upside risk that equities outperform in even a mildly reflationary recovery.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66781656587491161292012-11-04T11:58:57.031+00:002012-11-04T11:58:57.031+00:00buzztech
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...Big Ears surging ahead of The Glove in the polls:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-02/obama-leading-romney-in-third-ohio-survey-released-this-week.html" rel="nofollow"> Obama Leading in Ohio </a><br /><br />Meanwhile something bad has apparently happened in Stamford. Did Dick Bove sit on the keyboard?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-02/rochdale-said-to-seek-capital-lifeline-after-trading-error.html" rel="nofollow"> Rochdale Seeks Capital after Phat Phinger/Rogue Trader/Sheer Incompetence Leads to Portfolio Calamity </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2290997285306408972012-11-02T20:28:30.188+00:002012-11-02T20:28:30.188+00:00Hard to read much into the pre-election sessions, ...Hard to read much into the pre-election sessions, this looks like a fear trade, Monday will probably be dead quiet or we may get more selling.<br /><br />A big relief rally in risk assets is out there somewhere on the other side of the electoral chasm. Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34579884326909000212012-11-02T20:19:15.693+00:002012-11-02T20:19:15.693+00:00T-Notes looks like they are setting up for a nice ...T-Notes looks like they are setting up for a nice move soon. and Nasdaq and by default the rest of teh US market appear to have thier legs chopped from under. <br /><br />I guess no one wants to be too aggressive before election but near term price action is not so positive.<br /><br />some of the momo 'frugality' theme names (dollar stores) appear to be taking a nice hit). will the XRT start to as well. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18912302935680884792012-11-02T13:27:35.561+00:002012-11-02T13:27:35.561+00:00Decent US jobs number again, not really a surprise...Decent US jobs number again, not really a surprise given seasonality, as we have suggested in this space previously. Conservative media desperately spinning to make the report weak. Bond longs are tottering and taking a standing count. Factory orders may be the upper cut to follow on from the left jab....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77868788925276612002012-11-02T10:37:06.066+00:002012-11-02T10:37:06.066+00:00C says'
Eurozone PMIS's just make it stark...C says'<br />Eurozone PMIS's just make it starkly clear how much is riding on Asia and the US to keep the taps for growth wide open.Under those circumstances the US election looks supremely important.Any hint of austerity/fiscal contraction from the state,and imo it is game over for risk.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83835316145567232962012-11-02T08:31:30.234+00:002012-11-02T08:31:30.234+00:00C says
Mr Whippy continues to have fun is about th...C says<br />Mr Whippy continues to have fun is about the only I can say to end this week.<br />Some people found out the cost of trying to be short on a day when decent earnings realeases combined with those end of the month /start of new month investment flows as divs get reinvested etc etc. One or two substantial ouch moments.<br />However most of our Western equity markets remain in range plays,and the key to follow through comes after the initial start of the month investment flows taper off.<br />All of that looks to coincide with the US elections.<br />In the east it appears the closer to the China story you are the better you are doing.By the time that ripples out to Sydney it's more like a drip than a tsunami which reflects where the monetray policy is coming from the most.<br />Indeed my 'top' indicator is now going to be where this withered old crone on the edge of the gobi desert is quited as saying how she loves her Ipad mini so much she sold her goats to pay for it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27487113997714386142012-11-02T08:29:25.560+00:002012-11-02T08:29:25.560+00:00NFP today, how does one know this,well... we recen...NFP today, how does one know this,well... we recently we're out and about just before the trading session begun and the contrarian indicator is rattling.....not in direction, but volume...one should remember the golden rule, any one of fashionista persuasion is to be chucked out of calculation,as it happens, there we're quite a few of them, you know the type , slouching in front cafes , wearing skinny jeans and looking in desperate need of a shot testosterone, be that as it may, sorry guys I have leave your crowd out due to risk reward expectation. <br /><br /><br />It just isn't worth it..amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55883882830306811162012-11-01T19:31:22.003+00:002012-11-01T19:31:22.003+00:00Electoral disruptions....
Polling Stations Wiped...Electoral disruptions....<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-01/some-new-jersey-polling-stations-wiped-out-by-sandy.html" rel="nofollow"> Polling Stations Wiped Out </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36810160245004806342012-11-01T19:03:29.128+00:002012-11-01T19:03:29.128+00:00Tomorrow is an entire day without FRBNY buying bon...Tomorrow is an entire day without FRBNY buying bonds at the long end. They will be back next week to buy another $13B...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html" rel="nofollow"> OMO Timetable </a><br /><br />....and over the same time period they will be selling $14B at the short end.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62343561000629582292012-11-01T17:45:58.700+00:002012-11-01T17:45:58.700+00:00More charting. This is for others who have propose...More charting. This is for others who have proposed the EM over DM theme for Q4, Shanghai this time, showing the famous inverted head and shoulders pattern....<br /><br /><a href="http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Chris-Kimble-121101-Shangai-Update.php" rel="nofollow"> Shanghai Update </a><br /><br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46054383798118699052012-11-01T15:59:02.357+00:002012-11-01T15:59:02.357+00:00NBG has been No Bloody Good this week, but might b...NBG has been No Bloody Good this week, but might be worth a punt for Kevlar enthusiasts. We don't have a position but we did have a cheeky punt on the Greek phone company at 85c this summer.<br /><br />Grollover, Grextension etc... seems a likely scenario here, don't you think? No point in triggering a huge panic before the US election, is there? There is no Love for The Glove in Yoorp, peeps. Mitt's recent trip to the London Olympics didn't exactly win hearts and minds.... European markets will rally for Big Ears.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65732655628183417772012-11-01T15:23:04.735+00:002012-11-01T15:23:04.735+00:00What's up with Greece? Mkt down last two days ...What's up with Greece? Mkt down last two days and attacks on immigrants encouraged by a neo-nazi party? Maybe the Germans will let the Greeks slip while the world attention is on U.S. East coast?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7000056240460307322012-11-01T15:13:17.363+00:002012-11-01T15:13:17.363+00:00US investors are not happy. They are damned if the...US investors are not happy. They are damned if they will buy this market now. No Siree, Bob, not now, no way, no how and definitely not right before Big Ears wants to be re-elected and take the country on a Slippery Slope toward Socialism. <br /><br />Europeans seem to be far less concerned about this possibility and are absolutely ramping the markets this morning, as Halloween is behind us and the somewhat scary specter of The Glove running US foreign policy seems to be receding.<br /><br />Oh yeah, there were positive numbers out of China and the US, but investors don't want to hear that, not while they still clinging to the hope of Bain Capital veterans running Treasury while they are enjoying the benefits of a 1.71% 10y.....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78443092843684031532012-11-01T13:19:40.917+00:002012-11-01T13:19:40.917+00:00Punditocracy in the US falling over themselves to ...Punditocracy in the US falling over themselves to paint the latest US data as negative, of course the financial media are predominantly conservative and their politics at the moment is still Love the Glove. <br /><br />Of course they are also pragmatists, so many media folk will be ready to turn on a dime as they say here and do a Chris Christie if Big Ears is re-elected. Rosie still defending his recession call this morning even though it just doesn't look likely on the evidence of the data. He pushed it back a bit, though. Sorry, Rosie, this is an ex-recession....<br /><br />Lots of people are long bonds and now desperately hoping for fiscal stalemate in Washington. Of course if anyone is going to actually run this delightful but crumbling country the first thing to do will be to Stiff the Cliff and put on some infrastructure projects paid for by taxes on private equity billionaires. Sorry, Mitt. A 5% drop in GDP isn't the best way to start your term in office.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75327713640961843982012-11-01T12:01:26.575+00:002012-11-01T12:01:26.575+00:00C says'
I could get tired of saying this,but i...C says'<br />I could get tired of saying this,but in my view the world is mending.This appears to be totally what many people don't want to hear about. The media inparticular seem stick in a timewarp unable to sing any song that doen't fit with their favourite mantra of economic doom and gloom.<br />Perahps the sooner we all just relaise that banks are a vital part of the economy and as such will find a way to make aprofit from what they do,the better. I doubt the profit will originate in the way it has done in the past,but profit there will be. property will recover broadly and with it bad debt will become a smaller and smaller problem.After 5 years should we not at least entertain the notion that people who couldn't service their mortgage debt have been mostly washed out?<br />Indeed if we hadn't built up a big new industry that sees suing banks for passing wind as a whole new means of generating a passive income then the banks would be whizzing away even faster.<br /><br />I find it ironic that so many are still out there cheering every time some idiot fines a bank for something.Don't they realsie where the bill will eventually land?<br /><br />Rant over.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30691306758914631262012-11-01T09:02:02.373+00:002012-11-01T09:02:02.373+00:00C Says'
Anon,do you know the sector weightings...C Says'<br />Anon,do you know the sector weightings for the ASX? Because in this market the devils definitely in the details,that is sectors and individual stocks.That's actually stating the obvious for any market that is not currently trending.<br />Of course faced with the last trading session of the week the overall test for this pudding is do the sells of last night get held unto the weekend ,or covered?<br /><br />Personally,it appears evident to me that w are still seeing stubborn buying demand in bank equity,equity financial/investment, as sectors.Corparate debt HY is not obviously being sold and bank debt is the same.Whilst this situation lasts it's hard for me to get bearish.I guess I'll have to keep on keeping on as Curtis used to say.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6610595738434208802012-11-01T05:45:39.214+00:002012-11-01T05:45:39.214+00:00@ LB,
ASX200 was unimpressed with the CHinese and...@ LB,<br /><br />ASX200 was unimpressed with the CHinese and Korean PMI prints. Kevlar ONAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29285402678071987012012-11-01T02:04:39.006+00:002012-11-01T02:04:39.006+00:00For those who like to don the Kevlar, today's ...For those who like to don the Kevlar, today's falling knives were Western Union (WU) and National Bank of Greece (NBG). Speaking of bubbles....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2012118359239931402012-11-01T01:59:16.096+00:002012-11-01T01:59:16.096+00:00Chaps,
I know you're catching forty winks. Wh...Chaps,<br /><br />I know you're catching forty winks. When you awake you'll find China PMI over 50. World Not Ending. You read it hear first. That would be the first of a series of TWINE data points/events over the next few weeks.<br /><br />Bears don't like it up 'em, Capt. Mainwaring... Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54410147520909945862012-10-31T20:37:22.721+00:002012-10-31T20:37:22.721+00:00C says'
Other day I read,was it the Pimco guy,...C says'<br />Other day I read,was it the Pimco guy,holding forth we might have an equity bubble.Be a fisrt for me because I don't ever remember a bubble being so underinvested .For the last couple of years I seem to think I was in some kind of contest to find out who could be the most risk free.New kind of bubble I guess.<br /><br />In terms of Sandy,sounds like a rerun of Grease,I try to bear in mind that typically , the initial response to disasters tends to turn out to be the wrong one.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38981006077100767612012-10-31T19:52:41.875+00:002012-10-31T19:52:41.875+00:00Of course, Abee, if one is a hedge fund manager do...Of course, Abee, if one is a hedge fund manager domiciled in Greenwich, one can always trade from one's yacht, even though it might be in dry dock, so to speak, sitting on someone's lawn right now....<br /><br />Is it just me, or is there is some complete insanity out there at the moment among nouveau bond bulls about ways to arb the yield curve, often in leveraged and byzantine trades that seem almost guaranteed to bring disaster if it doesn't actually remain flat for ever.... ???<br /><br /><a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/957871-treasuries-if-you-re-going-to-do-it-do-it-right?source=marketwatch" rel="nofollow"> Treasury Bulls Have Fun With Derivatives </a><br /><br />Some of this is getting a bit Long Term Capital Management .... it will all end in tears.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67190689007794226262012-10-31T19:38:25.101+00:002012-10-31T19:38:25.101+00:00its funny how all the other world markets pretty m...its funny how all the other world markets pretty much stoped when NYC was down. I feel bad for them. Buses are going to be crazyabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68439852977833639042012-10-31T14:42:26.119+00:002012-10-31T14:42:26.119+00:00These maps are all libruhl conspiracy, LB. Hannity...These maps are all libruhl conspiracy, LB. Hannity tells me Romney in a landslide.<br /><br />Hope you're well btw. The stress on NYers might be severe, but at least they don't work at a swiss bank. Short UK / long US real estate?Dee Dee Humbersidenoreply@blogger.com