tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2047143005097058852..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Powell's First Dance with Congress: Hawkish. Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72624402029620133612024-03-12T09:40:02.775+00:002024-03-12T09:40:02.775+00:00No complaints on this end, simply a good piece you...No complaints on this end, simply a good piece you made in here카지노사이트https://www.outlookindia.com/outlook-spotlight/2023년-한국을-대표하는-카지노-사이트-best-10--news-326663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69572391654408495852024-03-12T09:39:37.104+00:002024-03-12T09:39:37.104+00:00That insight's perfect for what I need. Thanky...That insight's perfect for what I need. Thankyou for sharing!파워볼사이트https://www.powerballsite.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8926916915209411222024-03-12T09:39:21.084+00:002024-03-12T09:39:21.084+00:00Articles like this are an example of quick, helpfu...Articles like this are an example of quick, helpful answers.카지노사이트킹https://www.casinositeking.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26866230671312805912024-03-12T09:39:07.607+00:002024-03-12T09:39:07.607+00:00Oh yeah, fabulous stuff there you are! plss write ...Oh yeah, fabulous stuff there you are! plss write more like this, you're awesome온라인카지노사이트https://www.oncasino.sitenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41722780747332475702024-03-12T09:38:35.957+00:002024-03-12T09:38:35.957+00:00Thank you for sharing this great blog. Your post i...Thank you for sharing this great blog. Your post is a useful contribution.카지노사이트위키https://www.casinositewiki.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22139531027629836402024-03-12T09:38:22.337+00:002024-03-12T09:38:22.337+00:00Hey, that's a clever way of thinking about it....Hey, that's a clever way of thinking about it. fuckin amazing article카지노사이트탑https://www.casinositetop.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25284160342831877882022-12-09T12:22:04.222+00:002022-12-09T12:22:04.222+00:00Thanks for sharing, I think this article is useful...Thanks for sharing, I think this article is useful to everyone. Visit <a href="https://thegreencrystal.com/" rel="nofollow">crystal shops near me</a> here.crystal shopshttps://thegreencrystal.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35319442746143113022022-09-28T08:45:32.284+01:002022-09-28T08:45:32.284+01:00I like your article.
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https://menuufa.comLearn a new way to gamble.<br /><a href="https://menuufa.com/ufabet-%e0%b9%80%e0%b8%a7%e0%b9%87%e0%b8%9a%e0%b8%84%e0%b8%b2%e0%b8%aa%e0%b8%b4%e0%b9%82%e0%b8%99%e0%b8%ad%e0%b8%ad%e0%b8%99%e0%b9%84%e0%b8%a5%e0%b8%99%e0%b9%8c/" rel="nofollow">https://menuufa.com</a>มโน เอาเองhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07048743272464383784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86033973976221185112019-11-29T10:29:31.884+00:002019-11-29T10:29:31.884+00:00Nice PostNice PostAZ-500 practice testhttps://www.dumpspartner.com/AZ-500-cheat-sheetnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34076454390650284572018-03-02T20:44:22.879+00:002018-03-02T20:44:22.879+00:00This is a great post. Can you tell me why it's...This is a great post. Can you tell me why it's important to look at 3m forward rates as opposed to the... errr... outrights? FI newb here.William Buelowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17365738765705800938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84018336466549794082018-03-01T15:57:09.230+00:002018-03-01T15:57:09.230+00:00Not to bang on endlessly about the same stuff, but...Not to bang on endlessly about the same stuff, but breaks were lower again today, suggesting that the Great Bond Bear Market might not really be on the way. Interestingly the dollar remains firm. Some punters are clearly starting to think that the Reflation Train isn't running on time. Perhaps it is merely delayed by the Great British Blizzard.<br /><br />Does anyone here ever pay attention to things like advertisers forward guidance? WPP isn't painting a very pretty picture, and that often precedes recession. IPA is correct about retail REITs, Manhattan is awash with empty storefronts, and malls everywhere are struggling. It is widely assumed that this is "structural", i.e. Amazon effect, but what if it is ALSO cyclical?<br /><br />A decent trade here might be long mREITs and short retail REITs - or stocks like GGP and VNO. If the economy slows and long end rates "unexpectedly" fall, then the mREITs will do OK this time, while the retail REITs will be battered.<br /><br />Still on the sidelines for now, next week is jobs week and so likely to be much more interesting.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14843117004078632212018-03-01T15:02:02.012+00:002018-03-01T15:02:02.012+00:00Nico,
I have an aversion to quoting todays action ...Nico,<br />I have an aversion to quoting todays action in terms of action seen many years ago. Whilst it might end up being right, for every one of those I could shown you many more that were not.<br />So , I try to avoid making comparisons like otherwise ?, when I saw this headline , 'Gas crisis: factories prepare to cut their use amid big freeze ' I might have thought holy 'buy stocks' it's 1972 all over again and once we get past that we'll have the mother of inflation cycles to chase once again. Fortunately, I try to avoid making comparisons like that otherwise I might prepay for my casket.<br />P.S. Talking about monetising debt of course one only needs to keep inflation running ahead of rate rises and hey presto eventually you do manage to do that, and as far as japan goes they 'own' the market for govt debt so who wants to fight that except of course via currency trades.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76263576794062066502018-03-01T13:59:09.353+00:002018-03-01T13:59:09.353+00:00i was trying to have a constructive discussion wit...i was trying to have a constructive discussion with you to understand your method and see what triggers your trades - if you prefer to just write days after you 'bought' the dip to tell us you were right, and disappear everytime the market hits lower without even airing downside targets etc then you have no value to us and i call that bs<br /><br />since you have a lot of time to waste online check my posts of February 2016 - i was buying the double bottom with both hands. In March 2009 too, but you did not know how to read yet<br /><br />lastly i'm sorry if this annoys you, but i can have $10m drawdown on that $50m notional. It is not pleasant but i can live with it. You probably trade 1/300th of my size but this ain't the point. Anyone trading any size with ideas and gusto and method is valuable here. Any troll like you ain't<br /><br />ciaoNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53669315531570662802018-03-01T08:36:37.208+00:002018-03-01T08:36:37.208+00:00Let's not forget that Nico has been calling fo...Let's not forget that Nico has been calling for another 2008 bear market for the past 6 years. Every 6-12 months he emerges to tell us he's shorted x million notional of SPX. When the market rallies several hundred handles against him, resulting in losses of ~$10m he vanishes. Then repeats the whole charade again... Best of all is he then tells people who are long US equities that they are "BS". Gotta love the internet :)))))<br /><br />PS Japan will just monetize it's debt slowly, & not allow rates to rise to any substantial degree (easily done when the BOJ owns the entire JP bond market).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9784868075872866562018-03-01T06:21:04.801+00:002018-03-01T06:21:04.801+00:00from the same January impulse it's a very fast...from the same January impulse it's a very fast market compared to 2008<br /><br />the 2500s bottom looks like 2008 MLK globex low (1250)... the 2790 looks like the 1430 reached in... May 2008 - it took 4 months to build a lower high before the bear market began. i am calling 2790 the Powell lower high and the bear market may begin from here. I am curious to see where long only 'strategists' would go 100% cash if mister BS would ever let us know of his strategy 'before' and his execution 'as' it happens.<br /><br />Meanwhile Japan is the slo-mo train wreck that noone is talking about. As i've said earlier, Japan balance sheet will go bust with 100bps up move in rates. The failure of Abenomics will be atrociously spectacular.<br /><br />Good luck to Powell and his soft landing concept, really<br />Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58742214117377037612018-03-01T05:07:31.003+00:002018-03-01T05:07:31.003+00:00yes! I meant to mention that point about cb indepe...yes! I meant to mention that point about cb independence--that is the driver for the move towards the "third mandate"-- but spaced it entirely. <br /><br />I've tuned up the mex model a bit more actually--I looked back at the 2011 election inn Peru where Humala won, a very similar candidate to AMLO. CDS moved about 50bps wider. So I think the potential for a 30-40bp widening from current levels is probably about right, which would mean the implied probability of an AMLO win is in the low 40s, and makes Mex CDS look about 10bps too rich and a good risk/reward here, IMO.<br /><br />And a heck of a lot cheaper than FX vol! EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21590028458434964432018-02-28T21:53:57.264+00:002018-02-28T21:53:57.264+00:00Thanks, Shawn.
Thinking of what threatens central...Thanks, Shawn.<br /><br />Thinking of what threatens central bank independence most, allowing another financial bubble to inflate (and inevitably burst) seems a bigger threat than inflation undershooting target by zero-point-something percent.<br /><br />Took off last of EURNOK short today, leaving some puts cheapened with barriers. Very light macro book this moment.<br /><br />Sorry I didn't comment on yesterday's Mexico piece. I still haven't got a trade yet there, but focused on other things.johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26181519213969808642018-02-28T21:48:46.622+00:002018-02-28T21:48:46.622+00:00Powell is not going to stop until he and the rest ...Powell is not going to stop until he and the rest of the Fed get a louder message from the market. I mean it usually does not take much for these folks to get scared, but they are not even close to that point. This being said, some here are quite clueless while calling for cyclical stocks, namely Nasdaq, rising 50% from here into what is clearly a hawkish Fed in a damn looong time. Let's not worry about cash on hand for those stocks and their diminished dependence on borrowing (even though that thesis could be highly contested lately in some cases), let's worry about the cyclical nature of their business and a possible slowdown in orders. We are not too far from it if Fed is going full steam ahead with their rate hikes. We are not at the very beginning of the rising rates cycle any more.<br /><br />And as for stock market overall, the last few days were not pretty and you will see how worried equity investors will be every time Powell will open his mouth. I would like to point out that we have a trendline break galore in REITs here. Pull any of these ETFs up and you will see exodus en masse in progress and massive head and shoulders formations: IYR, RWR, XLRE, SCHH, I could go on... Some would say what's the big deal? As I drive around the local shopping centers and office parks I am starting to see more unfilled holes again, and the anecdotes from res/retail/office/warehouse landlords are that the rents are starting to fall hard. You tell me how and what company will go for that big tech upgrade if their visibility is getting bleak? You are lucky they don't break their lease. I don't see 50% rise in Nasdaq from here if the rates are moving higher at this pace, tech orders will dry up fast. Let's just not get into this "calling for a bear market" thing here again, please. Let the price tell you what the heck is going on right now. Look under the hood, some sectors are flashing a possible regime change.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.com