tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1847965941550319150..comments2024-03-29T15:07:48.008+00:00Comments on Macro Man: OutMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger46125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22104240481766790852022-01-26T03:58:28.724+00:002022-01-26T03:58:28.724+00:00Packers and Movers Hyderabad Give Certified and Ve...Packers and Movers Hyderabad Give Certified and Verified Service Providers, Cheap and Best ###Office Relocation Charges, ***Home Shifting, Goods Insurance worth Rs. 10,000, Assurance for Local and Domestic House Shifting. Safe and Reliable Household Shifting Services in Hyderabad with Reasonable Packers and Movers Price Quotation @ https://packersmovershyderabadcity.in/<br />Packers Movers Hyderabadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08460968884361181345noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38000674530733862582014-12-16T22:54:06.653+00:002014-12-16T22:54:06.653+00:00anon 10.41
are you @dannyvis ? if so can you look...anon 10.41 <br />are you @dannyvis ? if so can you look at Demark on oil for me? we got a daily 9 tomorrow on sequential?<br /><br />if you aren't dannyvis you have exactly the same turn of phrase as his tweetsPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54622325021865697502014-12-16T22:48:12.634+00:002014-12-16T22:48:12.634+00:00Eric Scott Hunsader:
"Take a look at these 3...Eric Scott Hunsader:<br /><br />"Take a look at these 31 $SPY trades today worth $3.7 billion. Anyone know what they are from?" <br /><br /><br />https://twitter.com/nanexllc/status/544941976215617536Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82988333969547526472014-12-16T22:41:22.732+00:002014-12-16T22:41:22.732+00:00Energy is not worst performing HY group in credit....Energy is not worst performing HY group in credit. Financials are (not good). Energy is 2nd worst <br /><br />While stocks were in lala land briefly at 2011 $ESH5, HY CDX were screaming sell<br /><br />Bear raid via CDX started few days ago, with credit players pressing equity futures shorts. But why such swings? Buy the dip Pavlovian perpetual crowd goes into meat grinderAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61055846763147032522014-12-16T22:27:08.797+00:002014-12-16T22:27:08.797+00:00Exactly. He probably could have stuck with it if h...Exactly. He probably could have stuck with it if he was back at Goldman. A lesson to us all.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61888546949846946172014-12-16T22:18:55.057+00:002014-12-16T22:18:55.057+00:00Corzine - man he would have crushed it with those ...Corzine - man he would have crushed it with those Italian bonds @ 8% if he had managed to stay solvent.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64390596777807493252014-12-16T21:42:02.746+00:002014-12-16T21:42:02.746+00:00Almost every single big hedge fund or bulge bracke...Almost every single big hedge fund or bulge bracket blow up in history has been a result of bonds/FX rather than equities, indeed. Leverage always the poison, invariably self-inflicted along with a dose of hubris. Lehman, Corzine, LTCM, the list goes on and on.<br /><br />By far the worst performers this year until the recent commodity carnage would be found among the funds that were short the US 10y all year, in other words, the guys on the other side of my biggest "trade" of the year.<br /><br />As for knives, we all like to use the Kevlar gloves here, but the rule as always is play small, limit losses by using options, and avoid leverage at all costs.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55142329555462461452014-12-16T21:36:13.816+00:002014-12-16T21:36:13.816+00:00Yes.... Huge envy for MM... Respect!!!Yes.... Huge envy for MM... Respect!!!TheBondStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15654760354283741885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78886114315240844792014-12-16T21:31:25.705+00:002014-12-16T21:31:25.705+00:00Always wondering about how many of you are worried...Always wondering about how many of you are worried more about equity than bonds/FX... Big money or loss are in the second ones... Big damages in absolute and relative terms had been in bonds world this year.. At least this is my impression for total return portfoliosTheBondStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15654760354283741885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68181411533543731482014-12-16T21:25:30.117+00:002014-12-16T21:25:30.117+00:00good luck with those knives LB - i reckon u guys a...good luck with those knives LB - i reckon u guys are playing it thru c spreads and the like so sooner or later something will stick. <br />One thing that made new highs today is my respect for MMs trading prowess (ref article) - we may well look back at December and go, jeez, would been nice to be in CASH, FLAT, and focused on the little appreciated things in life, such as the kids Santa, not to be confused with the one that comes raising Spoo benchmarks for managers.<br />Sometimes the best fight is the one not fought.<br />washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48593204249651854292014-12-16T21:06:19.727+00:002014-12-16T21:06:19.727+00:00I think MR T has this situation to a "T"...I think MR T has this situation to a "T"... (groan)<br /><br />We just sold some really big blocks of TLT and AGG, to complete some profitable trades. Some of the TLT we have had since it was in the low 100s and 47/47 sell side economists said rates are going higher. If bonds rally after FOMC tomorrow, we will sell more. Also we bought some EEM, XLE and IWM, for a pure trade. We are at pretty high levels of fear here, seems like a very good time to take a punt on the long side. We also have some cheeky options punts, but that's another story.<br /><br />Emerging markets are definitely in "blood in the streets" territory. Both RSX and EEM made higher lows throughout the session today. Even crude and the XLE made a comeback today. HYG, not so much.<br /><br />There have been a few FOMC meetings where VIX spiked into the meeting and then volatility was absolutely slaughtered as risk assets rallied. Why should this one be any different? Tomorrow morning might well prove to be a bit scary, but many FOMC days are a tale of two tapes.<br /><br />For my money, the Santa rally begins tomorrow, with Dame Janet wearing red and going ho ho ho as the shorts are trousered after the Fed and the sleigh rolls on to New Year. SO, my friends, we are in - for about two weeks or so. <br /><br />Good luck, punters.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24063794536062366152014-12-16T19:42:20.249+00:002014-12-16T19:42:20.249+00:00sure - whats not to like abt spoos - usual 3.5% pu...sure - whats not to like abt spoos - usual 3.5% pullback from the high-hos and then a friendly flirtation with the yellen trendline before a reversal to finish the day handsomely in the green. Seriously it does not get any easier - Santa will personally blow the bulls while simultaneously ramming it to the howling bears as Janet videotapes proceedings to later email it to draghi, fisher sulks by the exit , and Putin morosely prepares to wear a pink flowery dress.<br />2100 here we come, but don't get used to the handle because it will soon be 22, then 23 by May on the back of EM strength.<br />washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42703744541540120272014-12-16T19:16:14.697+00:002014-12-16T19:16:14.697+00:00just pull the lever and expect another 50 points o...<i> just pull the lever and expect another 50 points on Spoos</i><br /><br />For the record, that is precisely my game plan here.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43804394325050471032014-12-16T18:59:09.319+00:002014-12-16T18:59:09.319+00:00C says
CV,
So cutting to it you would be holding i...C says<br />CV,<br />So cutting to it you would be holding into earnings then fi you are talking '6 months'.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1916320115771345742014-12-16T18:44:45.195+00:002014-12-16T18:44:45.195+00:00Cv.... Totally agree with equity sector/regionale ...Cv.... Totally agree with equity sector/regionale divergence and opportunitiesTheBondStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15654760354283741885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82407340880241159042014-12-16T18:36:46.320+00:002014-12-16T18:36:46.320+00:00Very true C, but then the question is really a mor...Very true C, but then the question is really a more fundamental one. Are you sector rotating or not. Let us say that you buy said energy companies and make some money in the next six months, then you rotate into another sector etc. For me the MAIN story this year is not the S&P 500 bull market, but the significant divergence across equity asset classes. <br /><br />I mean do people really think that Latin American beta will never, ever perform again. This is NOT an environment where EVERYTHING is trading at nosebleed valuations and the entirety of the G4 central banks are "normalising" rates. We need to be careful with recency bias ... the next "Recession" will not be like 2008. <br /><br />Staying in the bunker just seems to me to be leaving too many obvious opportunities on the table right now, even if this does not mean you have to just pull the lever and expect another 50 points on Spoos. <br /><br />CVCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45077503579126564172014-12-16T18:33:58.656+00:002014-12-16T18:33:58.656+00:00Corporate EM Bond OAS (+430 bps) has widened, but ...Corporate EM Bond OAS (+430 bps) has widened, but still lower than the 2013 highs (450). Much lower than the 2012 highs (510), 2011 highs are over 200 bps higher (640) and 2008 is in a different class (1723).<br /><br />In contrast, EM SOV spreads are approaching the 2011 highs. Corporate EM is trading more in line with US and Europe corporates rather than EM sovereigns. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80535290049866965592014-12-16T18:33:23.539+00:002014-12-16T18:33:23.539+00:00Drama when i've seen eurnok at +7%... I've...Drama when i've seen eurnok at +7%... I've doubled and exited this evening at loss... Bought again statoil and Russia...<br />Also now a position on em govies HC..<br />Short on spooz on rebound... <br /><br />If i could i'll sell short alla real estate in Versilia... Summer place for wealthy Russians in Italy<br />TheBondStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15654760354283741885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85941565088904422122014-12-16T18:31:31.658+00:002014-12-16T18:31:31.658+00:00Pouring water on a drowning man...
KUWAIT OIL MIN...Pouring water on a drowning man...<br /><br />KUWAIT OIL MINISTER SAYS OPEC COUNTRIES IN AGREEMENT OVER NOT HAVING ANOTHER MEETING EXCEPT IN JUNEAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64242259453851045072014-12-16T18:31:15.206+00:002014-12-16T18:31:15.206+00:00C Says
CV let's say you buy oil co's and f...C Says<br />CV let's say you buy oil co's and for arguments sake let's say you a fairly quick 10%+ on the rightside of the line do you want to hold them approaching New Year earnings? I'm saying wonderful TT ,but what lies beyond?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86274345983591097052014-12-16T18:29:09.512+00:002014-12-16T18:29:09.512+00:00Hedge Fund Manager Who Remembers 1998 Rout Says Pr...Hedge Fund Manager Who Remembers 1998 Rout Says Prepare for Pain<br /><br />http://tinyurl.com/lzwx5l5Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49522546956992366202014-12-16T18:19:02.530+00:002014-12-16T18:19:02.530+00:00Ah quality commentary as always chaps, I think the...Ah quality commentary as always chaps, I think the state of play here is simple. <br /><br />Either low oil/commodity prices are going to unleash a bullish run in non-energy assets unlike something we have ever seen (this is to say a proper late/end of cycle mad run) as central banks throw caution to the wind and keep the pedal to the metal. Or equities are about the hit the brick wall of deflation and the global economy will be in a recession within six months (and yes, it could actually happen that fast). I maintain my cautious, but hopefully not foolhardy, optimism that the first version is most likely, and I am rooting for Polemic and his Turnaround Tuesday call. <br /><br />Meanwhile, we watch and wait I guess … the cost of staying in can be high now, the cost of staying out … well have a drink with Hussman, Ambrose, Albert Edwards, Zero Hedge etc down at the pub, we all know the story, maybe it is true this time. Maybe there is actually a wolf lurking in the wilderness. Or maybe not ... <br /><br />CVCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19700526539009687662014-12-16T18:10:37.754+00:002014-12-16T18:10:37.754+00:00C Says
LB,
90 was a fairly obvious target area ,BU...C Says<br />LB,<br />90 was a fairly obvious target area ,BUT what happens next isn't clear at all IMO. With relative gaps in post recess recovery having been playing stronger to the US (and still so) relative to Japan and Europe et al there is an argument for 90 to become a consolidation area rather a radical correction. Declaring my interest here that's what I will be setting up for. Wouldn't we be surprised not to see some profit taking and consolidation? I would ,but thereafter until he data points economic data points elsewhere I want to find buying points for the dollar vis vis Yen and Euro.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61961266904664690472014-12-16T18:00:43.770+00:002014-12-16T18:00:43.770+00:00DX hadn't touched its 50 day since July, when ...DX hadn't touched its 50 day since July, when it was at 80! We did tell you we wouldn't see 90... starting to fall out of its trading channel. The much maligned EURUSD broke above its 50 day, finally. Looks like we might be nearer to the end of this FX regime, no wonder correlations have been all over the place.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15820207610971995182014-12-16T17:58:28.051+00:002014-12-16T17:58:28.051+00:00Brian Reynolds, Chief Strategist at Rosenblatt Sec...Brian Reynolds, Chief Strategist at Rosenblatt Securities, known for his credit cycles ideas.<br /><br />In 2012: "So, we don’t see an end to the periodic panicky stock market drops that have defined each of the last three years."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com