tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1838608285950443238..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Euro OffsiteMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50165151502606869182011-09-27T11:28:14.561+01:002011-09-27T11:28:14.561+01:00Nic.. agree such a tw@t we wonder if he was a crud...Nic.. agree such a tw@t we wonder if he was a crude propoganda set up by Ed Balls and Vince Cable. No bbg account.. runs "how to trade " courses.. web address www.leadingtrader.com/about/ for complete profile. Where the f did they find him? BBC really is going down the Swannee re reporting these daysPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71895928811694218642011-09-27T10:05:36.857+01:002011-09-27T10:05:36.857+01:00Tool of the week
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/busine...Tool of the week <br />http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15059135Nichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15083151714732237616noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56814775382470505502011-09-27T07:04:14.531+01:002011-09-27T07:04:14.531+01:00C says'
Govt safe haven trade about to be sque...C says'<br />Govt safe haven trade about to be squeezed so Equity counter trend rally anyone.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27155898916674505842011-09-27T00:36:27.083+01:002011-09-27T00:36:27.083+01:00Ditto Nemo's comments. SG released this report...Ditto Nemo's comments. SG released this report, stolen by ZH, more than a year ago: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/uncovering-liquidation-value-japan<br /><br />And the Economist weighs in in 2008: http://www.economist.com/node/10698467<br /><br />and I found this while looking for Steel Partners [notable failures] http://greenbackd.com/2010/02/11/activist-investing-in-japan/<br /><br />Unless the Japanese magically turn into greedy Americans and load up on lawyers who will force boards to act all of this is just wishful thinking.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26722100300649087162011-09-26T20:41:24.974+01:002011-09-26T20:41:24.974+01:00MM,
So you are cheering Europe going full Euron? ...MM,<br /><br />So you are cheering Europe going full Euron? Sticking it to taxpayers again in order to preserve the financial/parasite cohort. As U. Sinclair once saith: impossible to get a man to believe something if his livelihood depends on his not believing it.<br /><br />I'm sure you are nice guy. Def. funny. But your profession is the problem. <br /><br />The reason the world if fucked is primarily because the banking/hedge/trader class has killed its host--the real economy. <br /><br />Anyone who works in the space, including MM, needs to take a long hard look at the larger evil you are participating in, and work to fix if from inside.<br /><br />I'm sure a super levered EFSF helps the monied interests, but it doesn't help society, and will make the necessary flush of the bad debt more painful.<br /><br />LET THE BIG BANKS GO <br /><br />It won't be the end of the world. Promise.vikinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16776745711618715960noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20009367744714306952011-09-26T16:54:00.639+01:002011-09-26T16:54:00.639+01:00LB, having watched a few competitors in my space (...LB, having watched a few competitors in my space (corporates / events / credit) try to bust out the knuckle duster over the years and get Japanese boards to try to do what is in the interest of shareholders all I can say is: caveat emptor. <br /><br />Ask Warren Lichtenstein about how he feels about Tepco and the like. Japan is a mother of a value trap because the headkickers like Dan Loeb and Carl Icahn can never get control.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61727393889584724282011-09-26T16:43:06.020+01:002011-09-26T16:43:06.020+01:00Just getting tired of the "we need to keep ba...Just getting tired of the "we need to keep bailing whilst banks plug the holes in their capital structure" meme. It worked during the LatAm debt crisis but that was when banks were banks, not levered hedge funds. Over the last 25 years the results has not been healing but rather turning an acute condition into a chronic one. <br /><br />(Shitty boats should sink - that's just unconscious knowledge.)<br /><br />As for possible value plays, if you like EU banks at 0.4 times book, you're gonna love 'em at 0.2.Secret--Saucenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11355599346639612292011-09-26T16:24:00.144+01:002011-09-26T16:24:00.144+01:00Setting up backstops for the banks and then lettin...Setting up backstops for the banks and then letting Greece default is the scenario that is gaining traction. Of course this does mean there may be more such events later, but it buys us a year, perhaps? My guess is they will wait for one more market puke before the Bazooka/TARP comes out. So very Hank Paulson.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61358923987175136822011-09-26T16:21:25.124+01:002011-09-26T16:21:25.124+01:00Thanks for the Japan link LBThanks for the Japan link LBSkippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71246724739629391812011-09-26T16:09:13.903+01:002011-09-26T16:09:13.903+01:00I could see how a levered up EFSF or a massive exp...I could see how a levered up EFSF or a massive expansion of the ECB bond buying program might be effective (combined with a bank recap). I just don't see it as politically feasible, absent further pressure from the markets. <br /><br />Having said that European equities are clearly oversold and the potential double bottom combined with multiple bullish divergences appears interesting. <br /><br />I am still inclined to sell rallies, for now, but in the markets that haven't clearly priced the 'growth' risk.Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58474633956421252622011-09-26T15:45:36.965+01:002011-09-26T15:45:36.965+01:00Japan and Value Investing<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/295747-are-japanese-businesses-worth-more-dead-than-alive?source=yahoo" rel="nofollow"> Japan and Value Investing </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52850099732653225052011-09-26T15:44:33.228+01:002011-09-26T15:44:33.228+01:00NO major arguments with you guys, just watching fo...NO major arguments with you guys, just watching for the next significant rally. There are always rallies.<br /><br />Long and interesting article that reflects our view of the potential fro recovery in a beaten down old dog that's been left outside to die, the Nikkei.<br /><br /><a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/295747-are-japanese-businesses-worth-more-dead-than-alive?source=yahoo?> Japan and Value Investing </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67578556674281306192011-09-26T15:19:17.383+01:002011-09-26T15:19:17.383+01:00C says'
Some people and efinitely the media se...C says'<br />Some people and efinitely the media see the market in simplistic terms.Unable to understand the compex relationships they tend to ficus on whichever one may appear the clearest for them to understand and they give attribution to that for all things 'market'.<br />The reality is more complex than that with connecting themes interacting to create the conditions we are watching in real time. Indeed it often amuses me when I see a 'media.market' really heavily focussed on one issue.At times like that I have an habotial instinct to start looking over my shoulder for the connected stuff that's going to come out of left field and sandbag anyone not paying attention.<br /><br />The rumour mill is good to get a rally going ,but I'll bet there will be no shortage of people lining up to short it because the economic context remains one of verge of recession in major parts of the world economy and the rest holding above it are being steadily dragged down by their connections to it.<br />Significant policy changes needed before that becomes a buy again although we will have rallies of course.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4215528533515908092011-09-26T15:12:55.526+01:002011-09-26T15:12:55.526+01:00I wanted to follow up on the discussion from prior...I wanted to follow up on the discussion from prior days' threads about earnings. Here is some interesting commentary:<br /><br />http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-the-terrifying-2012-bear-case-scenario-2011-9<br /><br />I agree, LB, that my timing might be off, but keep in mind that this is NOT the business cycle that we are talking about. We are talking about a multi-decade credit cycle that is on the deleveraging side of the slope. Accordingly, earnings outside of (i.e. below) historical business cycle troughs should be expected.PPMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62675758913151965412011-09-26T15:11:10.664+01:002011-09-26T15:11:10.664+01:00A strong rumour of a 50 bps ECB rate cut was out t...A strong rumour of a 50 bps ECB rate cut was out there this morning. Now that's what they SHOULD do, but no guarantee that they will do it. We were surprised how little fudge came out of the weekend at IMF.<br /><br />LB is watching crude, which needs to descend further, especially Brent, to match weaker economic growth and softer US seasonal demand. We probably will not see a really sustainable bottom until crude finds a floor, if only b/c of the preponderance of energy companies, notably in the FTSE and the SPX.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19883658957293051662011-09-26T14:24:17.075+01:002011-09-26T14:24:17.075+01:00So, like the Fed levered up to save over-leveraged...So, like the Fed levered up to save over-leveraged banks in the US, we need the ECB/EFSF to lever up and issue some dodgy paper to solve the problem of dodgy EU paper. <br /><br />Hmm. I think I've seen this Athenian Tragedy before.Secret--Saucenoreply@blogger.com