tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1685507233136416624..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Roll Over, BeethovenMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73217291906796911092009-10-05T08:52:23.955+01:002009-10-05T08:52:23.955+01:00Oh and in case no one got the not-so-subtle hint, ...Oh and in case no one got the not-so-subtle hint, New Zealand want a weaker NZD...Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89046935101015041862009-10-05T08:46:41.961+01:002009-10-05T08:46:41.961+01:00Another strong bid to the AUD again today followin...Another strong bid to the AUD again today following more comments from 'well-connected' journalists in Australia. While the probability of a 25bp rate hike at tomorrow's RBA Board Meeting has increased, don't be surprised if the increase is even greater, 50bp or moreSkippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31966865085132959172009-10-05T00:42:16.684+01:002009-10-05T00:42:16.684+01:00check out the 30 day MA on your boy EuroStoxx.... ...check out the 30 day MA on your boy EuroStoxx.... looks like we are going for a test of the 100day<br /><br />MM I hear ya with the trend lines.. but I get the feeling moving averages trigger more "systems" than do trend lines<br /><br />ps - great blog MMabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65610129238449409562009-10-03T14:24:18.234+01:002009-10-03T14:24:18.234+01:00Guess the consumer demand story will be mostly con...Guess the consumer demand story will be mostly concentrated around the post-thanksgiving pre-christmas season Q4. If the green shoots are to survive this winter of discontent the hohoho had better not sound hollow.Judyhttp://foesskewered.livejournal.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32129995637425686322009-10-02T21:44:52.390+01:002009-10-02T21:44:52.390+01:00Agree. Metals space is eating a sh!t sandwich with...Agree. Metals space is eating a sh!t sandwich with no end in sight, unless Voldy or similar get on the bid in Shanghai on Monday. I'm taking my 3 cents and walking. <br /><br />Fund flows data still showing inflows to Asia etc though....<br /><br />On a related point, given all the fund flows to EM/long duration out of money market funds it occurs to me that if/when rates rise (2H 2010? who knows) the back end will sell off very hard and fast. for the TGTF crowd (similar to DGDF) that would appear to be the key catalyst as everyone gets progressively longer and longer carry.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67329733212378019762009-10-02T21:37:15.508+01:002009-10-02T21:37:15.508+01:00Dead cat bounce in HY coming Monday and Tuesday in...Dead cat bounce in HY coming Monday and Tuesday in front of the 10-yr and 30-yr auctions. Then the downtrend will continue...leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16924377493937048972009-10-02T19:02:04.278+01:002009-10-02T19:02:04.278+01:00Crisis 4.49,
LOL..no I'm much better looking t...Crisis 4.49,<br />LOL..no I'm much better looking than Bill Gross and my book is mine to work...LOL<br /><br />I'm the same guy who said don't finght the USD$ flow and got shot to ribbons because it was taken as some kind of pik tops/bottoms comment. ..LOL<br /><br />Whereas like our good friend Leftback I'd got a lock on govt bonds and that helped me to ride to help me ride the reflationary trade rather than fight it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79642208782030906372009-10-02T18:57:26.985+01:002009-10-02T18:57:26.985+01:00Steve, silver did almost the same thing. The move ...Steve, silver did almost the same thing. The move from 21.3 down to 8.4 was like 39% if you measure from the end of the silver standard.Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72947037302774837072009-10-02T18:47:54.407+01:002009-10-02T18:47:54.407+01:00The S&P bounced exactly at the 38.2% retraceme...The S&P bounced exactly at the 38.2% retracement of the whole downmove from the 1570s to 666. Pretty cool. This feels like a dead cat bounce though, after going a bit higher to possibly 1035-1040.<br /><br />Meanwhile, my EUR short worked well...Stevenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35496889464198546252009-10-02T18:16:07.292+01:002009-10-02T18:16:07.292+01:00Anonymous @ 5:44 - Are you Bill Gross? He was just...Anonymous @ 5:44 - Are you Bill Gross? He was just on TV and said the *exact* same thing. Seriously though, I think you're correct.Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10347715977843007692009-10-02T17:59:03.124+01:002009-10-02T17:59:03.124+01:00Anon at 5:44. Noted. LB had anticipated that move ...Anon at 5:44. Noted. LB had anticipated that move by snapping up govies in midsummer when TNX was around 4%. Plenty more mileage in the EoY FTQ trade until the next grand reflationary event, eh? Anyone think we will see a repeat of last year's TIPS dumping?leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9593006835671475752009-10-02T17:44:17.406+01:002009-10-02T17:44:17.406+01:00Govt bonds are long and what happens on any given ...Govt bonds are long and what happens on any given day is irrelevant unless you want to join the day traders.<br />Started in August on the back of the September wobblies and if you notice high risk went sideways since mid Sep.<br />Now govt bonds will take the moneyflow from other areas of fixed income ,corp bonds,which are very extended, as people (like me) reallocate and lock in some of the outstanding profits of this year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76788384452706651162009-10-02T17:01:32.558+01:002009-10-02T17:01:32.558+01:00EUR:USD keeps trying to rally and is rejected. Tha...EUR:USD keeps trying to rally and is rejected. That is encouraging for Bears holding on to short positions. Also the early sell-off in Treasuries has reversed.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56408704402759567952009-10-02T16:49:03.205+01:002009-10-02T16:49:03.205+01:00Ugly moves in many markets. The lies man Steve Lie...Ugly moves in many markets. The lies man Steve Liesman says "it hasn't gotten any worse." We have 263K people going unemployed and this is the propaganda, unreal.<br /><br />Interesting that the yen still trades mostly up with the risk off trade. If 1000 on the SPX gives way, could be a catalyst to drive the rate through 87. Unclear why Team Japan isn't out right now trying to drive it above 90.Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72644396428111915222009-10-02T15:45:52.093+01:002009-10-02T15:45:52.093+01:00So the logic appears to be that a weak labour mark...So the logic appears to be that a weak labour market will keep the Fed on hold for longer. That has given a boost to all things with 'carry' (in the broad sense of the word). <br /><br />Never mind that private sector credit is contracting and therefore the precondition for a recovery in final demand is absent. <br /><br />In my view, the incoming news probably fits with a double-dip in 2010. Just a matter of time until 'growth sensitive' assets react. <br /><br />Enjoy the weekend everyoneSkippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76421503697809677612009-10-02T15:36:54.377+01:002009-10-02T15:36:54.377+01:00Looks like another traditional NFP Friday! SPX bou...Looks like another traditional NFP Friday! SPX bounced from another "trend line" at around 1012.<br /><br />Any thoughts on the impact on the USD and SPX (if any) if Chicago is the winner this afternoon??Kimosabinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15519594683203405332009-10-02T15:25:21.513+01:002009-10-02T15:25:21.513+01:00uhh, which copper rally , pls??
3M mow 5890 offere...uhh, which copper rally , pls??<br />3M mow 5890 offered!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2145703377139067672009-10-02T15:19:40.486+01:002009-10-02T15:19:40.486+01:00Voldemort's hand is all over that EUR rally an...Voldemort's hand is all over that EUR rally and copper rally.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82001834727691318232009-10-02T15:15:46.598+01:002009-10-02T15:15:46.598+01:00Leftback,
have a look at HYG ;)
I'd begun to ...Leftback,<br />have a look at HYG ;)<br /><br />I'd begun to wonder if i'd sold my junk too early ,but maybe not.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31191576131622756882009-10-02T14:51:51.978+01:002009-10-02T14:51:51.978+01:00Hary Potter appears to think Voldermort`s magic co...Hary Potter appears to think Voldermort`s magic continues to suit the other side at the moment and into the future too (until green shoots grow grey hair).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25979775129195929802009-10-02T14:37:41.639+01:002009-10-02T14:37:41.639+01:00US equities getting bought again just now after th...US equities getting bought again just now after the gap lower. I'm not long (and boy my Q3 wishes I had been, though in a normal market it was a fine quarter0, but I'm just saying.<br /><br />What I kinda want to see before going short in any serious way is a gap lower on mediocre numbers, or a failure to gap higher on strong ones, accompanied by dropping vols. Complacency, in other words, breeds turns.<br /><br />I'm not seeing complacency, I'm seeing worry.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53845891454415210862009-10-02T14:20:51.903+01:002009-10-02T14:20:51.903+01:00It is ON after that US employment data, hours work...It is ON after that US employment data, hours worked down to 33.0. Macro Man did you see that IG spreads widened considerably yesterday, and LQD fell out of its trading channel? Not a good sign for equities.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24263972595938743092009-10-02T14:14:14.152+01:002009-10-02T14:14:14.152+01:00he's the bad guy in harry potter innithe's the bad guy in harry potter innitAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12365014924316219552009-10-02T14:07:18.430+01:002009-10-02T14:07:18.430+01:00Who exactly is Voldermort? Thanks!Who exactly is Voldermort? Thanks!Brother Jimmynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50598541924345118552009-10-02T13:46:10.018+01:002009-10-02T13:46:10.018+01:00SPX down for the count but AUD didn't stay at ...SPX down for the count but AUD didn't stay at .8575 for long and someone (Voldy?) saved copper. Let the EM/growth-story-athon roll on.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.com