tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1577364562625073679..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: What Euro Dollar funding crisis?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1753982860066164492011-09-16T22:43:47.748+01:002011-09-16T22:43:47.748+01:00jpm's panigirtzoglou would somewhat disagree w...jpm's panigirtzoglou would somewhat disagree with your title, on the dramatic fall of volume of us cp/cd issuance since mayAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77461827257047011082011-09-16T09:47:30.289+01:002011-09-16T09:47:30.289+01:00Interesting post and comments.
1/ There was a fu...Interesting post and comments. <br />1/ There was a funding crisis. Most of the people I know from BPNSG were saying so last week <br />2/ I am still thinking through the data you showed but a clearing price at the ECB swap rate just shows that there is a crisis. If there wasn't it would stay low. If there is it will stabilize right above the ECB price, almost by definition<br />3/ I don't think there was stigma here<br />4/ because very frankly I (personally) suspected foul play by some US players. There was a sudden and coordinated shortage of liquidity <br />5/ which was silly because we all knew the liquidity swaps were in place at the ECB/FED and as soon as the last graph you showed went to the clearing price it would, well, clear with ECB involvement<br />6/ so let's get this straight: there was a crisis but it would never go very far as the ECB would TALF (EFSF) the banks like the US did (see this morning FT). <br />7/ Someone made a lot of money on the way down and the way upadt43wt342https://www.blogger.com/profile/07557608193924044365noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55216960724586236732011-09-16T04:00:32.209+01:002011-09-16T04:00:32.209+01:00Just thinking , this may tie in nicely with our re...Just thinking , this may tie in nicely with our ref-darkmatter threshold zone chart( remember the no-mans-land) Yep.....slick showing the way now, must be those correlation trades, at this stage the ref is lagging (badly) but ,after reading this its no wonder.So if the real catch up is the fin-razzes catching down then watch out this is going to go fast.Amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48527006636565293152011-09-15T20:00:26.263+01:002011-09-15T20:00:26.263+01:00nice post.. funding might not be that tight but it...nice post.. funding might not be that tight but it is moving in the wrong direction. would like to see it turn the corner before going long in bank stocks but of course you will be late to the party by then.<br /><br />I love how no news out of europe is considered good news. Has anything changed at all since last year? 3month loan offere, really? thats been around for ages. Head in the sand and hope it ends up well. <br /><br />Hopefully the eurocrate figure out an orderly default / restructure and a massive backstop for everyone else so the world can go on, but I think they will only do so if pushed.abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83715414135920010032011-09-15T18:52:17.622+01:002011-09-15T18:52:17.622+01:00Whining bears abound, love this stuff:
"In h...Whining bears abound, love this stuff:<br /><br />"In hindsight, this action by global policymakers was predictable and was indeed predicted by Morgan Stanley's global economics team last week, among others."<br /><br />Well, yes. They did say they were going to.<br /><br />"Meanwhile, the Dow Transports had risen 10% and the Nasdaq was up 5% in the prior two day, leading some market participants to speculate "someone" knew this moving was coming."<br /><br />Ooooh... mainpulation.. evil market players !!<br /><br />"Between the government taking these actions and a market that moves before the news, we are living inside a giant insider trading machine," writes Scott Bleier of Create Capital."<br /><br />LOL. We are thinking that Scotty didn't "create" much capital today b/c he got Edward the Seconded.<br /><br />For goodness sake, Scotty Dog, they TOLD everyone LAST WEEK that if you kept shorting, they were going to SPEW LIQUIDITY from every orifice. We even warned you all, right here at MM, to get your anoraks ready before they started.<br /><br />Silly sausage.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65338707464767930252011-09-15T18:05:54.568+01:002011-09-15T18:05:54.568+01:00Getting a bit more cautious here - if we don't...Getting a bit more cautious here - if we don't burn through DAX 5500 or SPX 1200 before the weekend. Most of the shorties have already been incinerated. So we will bid adieu to some of our index longs. <br /><br />"It was great fun, but it was just one of those things...."Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69219390940714771642011-09-15T17:46:38.715+01:002011-09-15T17:46:38.715+01:00My bottom hurts.My bottom hurts.euro bearnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6808735755032316932011-09-15T17:26:14.666+01:002011-09-15T17:26:14.666+01:00Claus - there may have been no short sellers, but ...Claus - there may have been no short sellers, but there sure were a lot of short positions the owners of which certainly thought were a rare and irreplaceable asset. Seems they didn't get the SNB's message that the game being played was no longer badminton.<br /><br />Looks good on all the lot that didn't cover when the WSJ initiated the passing of the BNP bag on Tuesday.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16206222490876816992011-09-15T17:17:14.970+01:002011-09-15T17:17:14.970+01:00C says'
22% shows just how much weight had gon...C says'<br />22% shows just how much weight had gone short on this and prbably banking in general and they cut each others throat trying to get to the tune of 22% ...not inconsequential.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3564795038389558362011-09-15T16:45:09.841+01:002011-09-15T16:45:09.841+01:00Indeed LB, the short-Europe punt is getting a bit ...Indeed LB, the short-Europe punt is getting a bit of a cold fudge bath today. And my oh my does them banks go when they go. What was the high print on BNPP, 22%? Of course ... no short sellers there ;)<br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54065330718384335152011-09-15T16:29:17.925+01:002011-09-15T16:29:17.925+01:00cpmppi @ 331,
I second that. Much better to thro...cpmppi @ 331,<br /><br />I second that. Much better to throw your weight around as a CB before things are out of control, trading into the trend so to speak. Reminds of the IEA getting behind the downtrend in oil off the April highs.<br /><br />Today's US data wasn't very reassuring, but should we be surprised that the 'real' economy pulled in the horns this summer while watching a political train wreck and the 'confidence fairy' disappear? I'm not so sure. And as Mr. Rogoff teaches us, we should expect huge volatility and swings in the data, as we all swing from euphoria to fear post-crisis.<br />TWINE...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25742138319915719542011-09-15T15:31:16.639+01:002011-09-15T15:31:16.639+01:00Anon @ 3:15,
We would view this as an "easy ...Anon @ 3:15,<br /><br />We would view this as an "easy win" for policymakers, given that it didn't actually require any effort to execute, and will act as a backstop going forward to calm irrational fears of funding worries.<br /><br />Cheers,<br />cpmppicpmppihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14890582570540203535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40821731169958568542011-09-15T15:15:48.374+01:002011-09-15T15:15:48.374+01:00im guessing the FED/ECB and the rest of the CBs in...im guessing the FED/ECB and the rest of the CBs involved thought there was something to the "$ funding issues".<br /><br />or am i wrong?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11182459792595025992011-09-15T15:15:06.899+01:002011-09-15T15:15:06.899+01:00Goldfinger and Mr Bond are fighting in the plane a...Goldfinger and Mr Bond are fighting in the plane again. Only today both of them are going out of the window!<br /><br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPIWBNB7XLI&NR=1" rel="nofollow"> Goldfinger v Bond </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91398827154516558052011-09-15T15:02:40.793+01:002011-09-15T15:02:40.793+01:00US data not very good, Empire State etc.., but tha...US data not very good, Empire State etc.., but that means an easy Fed - so party on, right? Quad witching tomorrow, today might get a little weird in NY.<br /><br />Mr Shorty clearly in a spot of bother over in Europe today. The DAX 5500 level is in play here as it now forms resistance, used to be support. Likewise SPX 1200. We are inclined to curb our exuberantly bullish punting from the long side a little today. It has been a good week!Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83122318348280248792011-09-15T14:55:48.325+01:002011-09-15T14:55:48.325+01:00As is often the case, the imminent demise of certa...As is often the case, the imminent demise of certain institutions has clearly been exaggerated. It is hard to see how there could be a prolonged shortage of dollars anywhere in light of FOMC policies since 2009. Now, right on cue...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-15/ecb-coordinates-with-federal-reserve-in-lending-dollars-to-euro-area-banks.html" rel="nofollow"> ECB to Lend Dollars to Euro Area Banks </a><br /><br />Let's add a few more acronyms ...?<br /><br />UBS = unbelievably bad supervision?<br />BNP = Bought naf paper.<br />NBoG = No Bars of Gold<br /><br />We will have fun texting our mates at UBS today to see if they have looked under their desks, chairs, etc. lately. Lost anything, etc..? Too funny - and of course it would be rude not to.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70100473397511517272011-09-15T13:59:57.959+01:002011-09-15T13:59:57.959+01:00Hello,
I am quite new here and I am also adding m...Hello,<br /><br />I am quite new here and I am also adding my thanks. ;)<br /><br />Here is a link that may interest you :<br /><br />US banks privately lending billions to support European lenders<br />http://www.ifre.com/us-banks-privately-lending-billions-to-support-european-lenders/1606560.article<br /><br />See ya ;)gerardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86303271990456328282011-09-15T13:38:44.300+01:002011-09-15T13:38:44.300+01:00Very interesting TMM, I must admit that we have be...Very interesting TMM, I must admit that we have been beating this drum quite a bit in our own research publications but this makes me think twice ... which is always good. <br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29035057725053700202011-09-15T13:01:39.581+01:002011-09-15T13:01:39.581+01:00This is turning into a thankyou fest, but thank yo...This is turning into a thankyou fest, but thank you!<br /><br />Please feel free to expound on any other matters that have you jumping up and down with frustration (SFWCPS?).<br /><br />And yep CfC, the FFF syndrome has been honed to a fine art from famous for fifteen to five.ntwscnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63479582409187256662011-09-15T12:42:15.624+01:002011-09-15T12:42:15.624+01:00Broadly agree with this, however I would add that ...Broadly agree with this, however I would add that what is happening is that accounts are cutting lines to sub 1 month. Most European banks can only borrow US domestic dollars for 1/2 weeks.<br /><br />Eventually, the amount of paper rolling becomes untenable. There are also local regualtor implied term funding metrics as well, some non-US commercials may start to run into problems.<br /><br />Ultiamtely bank treasurers are sick of the senior unsecured costs and will now be telling the source of their funding gap (the IB division!) to cut their balance sheets.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60073674676327821832011-09-15T12:37:36.840+01:002011-09-15T12:37:36.840+01:00Nice post; I've been harping on this point for...Nice post; I've been harping on this point for a while, but this says it much more eloquently; I think I'll print this out, stick it on a 2x4, and start hammering people over the head with it the next time I hear (Chicken Little voice...) 'the basis swap...the basis swap'.<br /><br />The other semantic fraud in this line of reportage is that banks tapping swap lines or whatever does not mean that banks are in trouble...it means banks would be in trouble in the absence of the swap lines. The swap lines precisely prevent banks getting into trouble via this channel...but of course 'NIM compressed by swap line useage' doesn't seem quite as sexy a story to ZH or FT Alphaville....and then there's all the BS about 'stigmas'...faark.<br /><br />One other point is if these funding needs intensify, the possibility exists to cut the swap line rates quite dramatically; the current premium being somewhat draconian.VandalsStoleMyHandlenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48287454881288728712011-09-15T12:33:27.474+01:002011-09-15T12:33:27.474+01:00excuse the language of course,but this is an issue...excuse the language of course,but this is an issue I've been getting frustrated with for awhile !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73894330997096038792011-09-15T12:32:35.703+01:002011-09-15T12:32:35.703+01:00C says'
As there ever been a time when the she...C says'<br />As there ever been a time when the sheer breadth of 'noise' in terms of opinion,rumour etc etc was greater and does anyone have a theory about how this impacts sentiment (in both directions)?<br />The internet has alot to answer for because it was bad enough when the 'noise' channels were just a handful of papers and TV channels ,but now the pipeline has mushroomed in size so that evn the guy cleaning the public toilet get's to tell the world what they guy form RBS was reading when he wa taking a dump.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78314192531057723942011-09-15T12:11:45.377+01:002011-09-15T12:11:45.377+01:00You can half understand why politicians are so loa...You can half understand why politicians are so loathe to act decisively if this is typical of the problem that needs to fixed. Can you imagine policy that had reacted in a rapid and timely fashion to every theme du jour of the last four years?<br /><br />Here's an effin' beauty that showed up yesterday. Originally from the Millionth Monkey (aka Hero Zedge), it was picked up by Ritholtz - that grand defender of the common man's right to know - and that sanctimonious pink blog, though they had enough shame not to post the table.<br /><br />http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/bring-on-the-drachma-tarp/<br /><br />Keep up the good work, kids.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82600800568682471582011-09-15T11:28:53.348+01:002011-09-15T11:28:53.348+01:00C says'
Don't let the facts get in the way...C says'<br />Don't let the facts get in the way of emotion (until I have finished buying). Indeed I have an anonymous source that assures me you are receiving a commission from the National Association of (W)Bankers to assmeble and release this market distorting stuff ! You are sir,in the pay of "them" ,"they","the world order" ,so be off with you sir !<br /><br />Thanks for the data and the analysis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com