tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1363608541482480422..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The Lady Is A TrampMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger46125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84735514658894828372015-09-25T02:45:04.505+01:002015-09-25T02:45:04.505+01:00Well, traditionally female Lama was the sex slave ...Well, traditionally female Lama was the sex slave of the high rank male Lama. So he could just state the obvious. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44776223593395915022015-09-24T23:56:25.900+01:002015-09-24T23:56:25.900+01:00Big hitter, the Lama.
- WhammerBig hitter, the Lama.<br /><br />- WhammerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36944858200562181712015-09-24T23:25:13.341+01:002015-09-24T23:25:13.341+01:00$gold,bigger picture:
https://www.tradingview.com...$gold,bigger picture:<br /><br />https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/HXAiTXBv-gold-weekly-chart/rivernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90352821158110196762015-09-24T23:07:55.820+01:002015-09-24T23:07:55.820+01:00In other news,in case you missed it:-)
"Afte...In other news,in case you missed it:-)<br /><br />"After a few awkward laughs, Myrie clarified, “So you can only have a female Dalai Lama if they are attractive... you’re joking, I’m assuming?”<br /><br />The Dalai Lama’s response?<br /><br />“No, it’s true.” He clarified: “If female Dalai Lama come, then that female must be very, very attractive, otherwise not much use.<br /><br />http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dalai-lama-says-his-successor-could-be-female-but-she-must-be-attractive-2015-09-23?dist=beforebellAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40149604864387985122015-09-24T23:00:33.147+01:002015-09-24T23:00:33.147+01:00Non paywall link via Google to WSJ: Janet Yellen ...Non paywall link via Google to WSJ: <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB4QqQIwAGoVChMIrv25u9WQyAIVDJmICh2JkQ_n&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fjanet-yellen-says-fed-interest-rate-increase-still-likely-this-year-1443128438&usg=AFQjCNEUiGXwjEiK08dikaPH5kDc5-ZZBg" rel="nofollow">Janet Yellen Says Fed Interest Rate Increase Still Likely This Year</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58189477690037434992015-09-24T22:54:37.696+01:002015-09-24T22:54:37.696+01:00They're throwing even more confusion when you ...They're throwing even more confusion when you add this to last weeks statement and q&a. It's as if they want to see how hard market can fall....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16672425692750655362015-09-24T22:48:40.084+01:002015-09-24T22:48:40.084+01:00This doesn't seem dovish to me.
WSJ's tak...This doesn't seem dovish to me.<br /><br />WSJ's take on Yellen today: <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/janet-yellen-says-fed-interest-rate-increase-still-likely-this-year-1443128438" rel="nofollow">http://www.wsj.com/articles/janet-yellen-says-fed-interest-rate-increase-still-likely-this-year-1443128438</a><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67449654958608008302015-09-24T21:29:33.673+01:002015-09-24T21:29:33.673+01:00MXN and BRL, BIG reversals. of course its CB inter...MXN and BRL, BIG reversals. of course its CB intervention, but then I heard the same thing at 666 Spoos, "its just a short covering rally" ... how many NYC HF's that have correctly ridden the EM FX wave are now locking in profits? If MYR and IDR open up strong as well, look for a big covering rally and Nikkei to rip<br /><br />US equities have been rallying in the afternoons while Europe has been selling in the morning...who is your money with? <br /><br />HY did sell off a bit into the close but I think its following at this point. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56192737608131927952015-09-24T21:05:03.431+01:002015-09-24T21:05:03.431+01:00In fact, we are knocking on the door of an EM curr...In fact, we are knocking on the door of an EM currency crisis or three, so she'd better be dovish. She's not stupid.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43176148043967685302015-09-24T20:56:49.243+01:002015-09-24T20:56:49.243+01:00She should do nothing and go all Greenspan on them...She should do nothing and go all Greenspan on them. Be completely unintelligible for a few meetings. Or just go Carney and be all [inflation] data-dependent, which is where she seems to be headed.<br /><br />I don't love this market but choppy trading epochs like this do usually end with vol selling and can often produce sharp rallies of 5-7% in a few days. You have been warned.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4505330817401318092015-09-24T20:51:29.706+01:002015-09-24T20:51:29.706+01:00@LB,
She might sound hawkish given Fed was blamed...@LB,<br /><br />She might sound hawkish given Fed was blamed to be spineless after the last FOMC. Honestly I do not know what she is going to say and how market will interpret it. So taking some chips off the table seems to be a safe thing to do now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4936535163878231192015-09-24T20:22:36.253+01:002015-09-24T20:22:36.253+01:00Easy Janet is going to give a speech tonight. Watc...Easy Janet is going to give a speech tonight. Watch out, Mr Shorty, she loves nothing more than to poke you in the bum first thing in the morning. Indeed I see some of you are already bending over in advance of the event.<br /><br />At times like this I do like to resort to mindlessly simple analysis like Yield Watch: as of today, we are looking at mREITs about 9-12%, MLPs 7-8%, REIT preferreds 7-8%, BP 8%, VWO emerging markets ETF 5.4%, US10y 2.1%. There are a lot of places to put money to work where you can get paid to wait for higher asset prices.<br /><br />Fwiw, we bought the preferreds of NBG a while back during the Grexit crisis, and they have almost doubled in price. Better to be lucky than good.<br /><br />We are agnostic about overall market direction medium-term but the feeling is growing here that we are overdue for a face-ripper led by vol sellers and then sustained by hedgers dumping volatility into the October expiration. If Dame Janet indicates that it's not going to be a spooky Halloween and December is now the earliest hike date, then all those hedges will be lifted. Don't be surprised to see Spoos rip 50-100 points here and VIX decline below 15 once more. We've seen it happen....<br /><br />Yen buying is similar to front month put buying here. Sure, you can rent it, but you're not going to own it for long b/c at the end of the day you know it's worthless.<br /><br />USDJPY correlation with Spoos? So 2014 and 1H 2015, really. Beware of getting too attached to FX correlations, they appear suddenly, then they stick around for a few months, hanging out with you every day just like college girlfriends, and then just as quickly there is a bit of turbulence, and off they go, and the next time you see them, they are attached to someone else.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53036401798834455622015-09-24T19:27:13.274+01:002015-09-24T19:27:13.274+01:00Europe has been leading the market lower, thank ba...Europe has been leading the market lower, thank banks and autos for that. Can they break, sure , but your risk reward here is at least decent. put in a 1-2% stop, watch the open and see what happens tom. If Europe can manage a rally I think US isnt going to drop on its own. <br /><br />Lots of US sectors for sale. Biotech and MLP come to mind. I am donning some kevlar for some MLP's. Yes I know many a yield hog has been slaughtered when buying just on yield, but frankly when conservative mgmt is giving you 7-10%, and rates are low, well I think its attractive given my other options (cash). Not taking a full clip but starting to avg in<br /><br />Yes brazilian equities are not cheap, and no I am not buying any, but FYI, Itau is still earning 20% ROE. WTF. Brazil and its historically high rates is the opposite of Japan. Dont try to analyze either without forgetting everything you know about US/EU markets. <br /><br />In terms of FX / EM Crisis, seriously how much more can we go? BRL, MYR are not going to zero..i find talk of China doing a serious devaluation funny. They are still running a 2.75% CA Surplus and importing ever cheaper commodities. They can afford to export some capital. Look at Japan.abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4409400031879514632015-09-24T19:12:19.015+01:002015-09-24T19:12:19.015+01:00Shoeless - if the dollar is getting stronger becau...Shoeless - if the dollar is getting stronger because of ECB easing/dovishness I think it will be risk +ve - so the key is EUR/JPY and not the index as a whole. The ideal situation from a currency weakening standpoint would be euro > jpy > usd, but it will only work in an environment where US grows stays at 1.5% plus, and we don't start getting funding issues for EM. In any case step one would be dollar swap lines for everybody, so we are a long away from sovereign stress anywhere.<br /><br />The cracks are out there and frankly hardly a mystery anymore, just re-iterating that this will be a drama with many acts, and the possibility that u could make money being long or short - just depends on your PnL management skills. Conviction may well be a punters worst enemy in the next few months. <br />washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60814782630069875972015-09-24T18:46:26.836+01:002015-09-24T18:46:26.836+01:00FT @shoeless 6:23
You don't remember the time...FT @shoeless 6:23<br /><br />You don't remember the time when spooz was positively correlated with EUR/USD tick for tick.....<br />It wasn't so long agoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65687429269057827972015-09-24T18:23:50.793+01:002015-09-24T18:23:50.793+01:00LB,
As I stated a few days ago, the problem with ...LB,<br /><br />As I stated a few days ago, the problem with a weak $ is that $/Yen has become the de facto proxy for risk assets. If Bucky goes down hard, risk assets go bidless. shoelessnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77708782020222255612015-09-24T18:14:10.677+01:002015-09-24T18:14:10.677+01:00Over the years LB has been anything but a "Lo...Over the years LB has been anything but a "Long Only Equity Guy", and for some of the last few years has been to all intents and purposes a "Fixed Income Only Guy". However, that has all changed in recent weeks, and right now LB is in synch with LOEG in being constructive on European equities and by extension the rest of the world to some degree as well. The reasons are manifold: 1) European conditions are improving (seen it with my own eyes) 2) Yields are low and they are going to STAY LOW FOR A LONG TIME, and 3) Inflation is going to remain low, while 4) Profits and revenue will be stable at worst.<br /><br />LOOK here, (as Polemic would say on his best days), we are now very likely to see more monetary EASING in China and India. ECB is already embarked on a huge program of monetary easing. The Fed is out of synch. All the Fed has to do here is DO A CARNEY. Hum a few tunes, make noises, hop from one leg to another, but above all DO NOTHING, especially NOTHING TO MAKE BUCKY STRONGER. Bucky is the enemy of growth here, not only in the US but elsewhere. A coherent Fed tightening policy would export deflation to the world and then reimport it to the US via lower commodity prices.<br /><br />This morning David Goldman was on Bloomberg espousing just such a course of action. The main reason, as he explained and I have outlined here many times is this, in the ABSENCE OF CREDIBLE LEADERSHIP ON FISCAL STIMULUS, it makes no sense for any country lacking coherent government policy to tighten monetary policy while the Output Gap remains large and the true unemployment rate is high.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56049612798941242522015-09-24T17:42:49.505+01:002015-09-24T17:42:49.505+01:00Over the years I've observed you gentlemen are...Over the years I've observed you gentlemen are amazingly even keeled and your analysis generally seems to prove accurate, esp over the longer term. But, but, but, I cant help (perhaps wrongheadedly)thinking the psychological component has turned. On 9/24 I witnessed the Fed (again) capitulate to the market, yet this time the market's response was a big "up yours". Seemed like a completely different reaction than what I was expecting. What's worse is the reaction of our CBer's is only going to exacerbate the problem. Yellen's pause for vols is only going to create more vol - which should lead to more pausing and more vol. The ECB stands ready to act further, but will only do so at lower levels. But, when they do, it will only serve to tighten dollar conditions further which will along with ticking points from US earnings growth, increase the rational behind the great pause. I cant help but think we may eventually conclude there is a great difference between QE when you're the global reserve currency and when you are not. <br /><br />Of course this doesn't preclude donning the Kevlar here except that I go back to where all this mess started - China. I'm almost certain that their market has another leg down before the equity bubble is deflated. While we have decoupled from their price action somewhat I think that another decent decline over there will bring back some hand wringing over here. The only good news I see so far is that oil hasn't checked out yet, but it's bottom isn't a certainty either. And then there are bonds, which while behaving as one would expect today, cant be ruled out that they don't do something unexpected if certain large players decide they need to play some defense on their FX. <br /><br />Even though this is all anecdotal, I cant shake the feeling that patience will be rewarded here the setup just looks ugly. Coreynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91181764928236911672015-09-24T17:30:51.454+01:002015-09-24T17:30:51.454+01:00Yes Adrem - while its at it, it should demand to s...Yes Adrem - while its at it, it should demand to see Obama's birth certificate and promise free nazi souvenirs with the purchase of every VW vehicle.<br />Dude - no one takes this sh@t personally - everyone is just doing their jobs - Winterkorn just got paid $40 MM precisely so they could have a villain to blame - this 'crisis' will get resolved just like every other one we've seen previously - with a wink, a nod, some fines, and an extensive PR campaign. Nothing will change, and VW knows that - so does everyone else. <br /><br />washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64209869769666142662015-09-24T16:44:12.645+01:002015-09-24T16:44:12.645+01:00Who really caresa a damn about the VW emission bus...Who really caresa a damn about the VW emission busines. VW supplies good cars and plenty of secure jobs. What do these bureaucrat emission vagrants provide apart from added costs and aggro. VW should play hard ball and shut down th US operation and leave them to sue a husk. VW owners can get their spares on eBay and boutiques will start up to service their cars. Its a big world out there. There are plenty of other markets for VW.<br />Of course it wont happen but if it did it would put steam into the Dax. Someone taking decisive action for once.Adremhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09031356872212265769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59832722780406628882015-09-24T16:43:09.959+01:002015-09-24T16:43:09.959+01:00Again, I am not suggesting that China cannot have ...Again, I am not suggesting that China cannot have "a crisis"....simply that it is unlikely to have a classic EM currency crisis. And a 60 bio/month inflow from the trade account is a very nice cushion that no other crisis country has ever had, including Japan.<br /><br />Moreover, it is also possible that China can muddle through, which seems to be an outcome that doesn't get much airtime. Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26206978271696354452015-09-24T16:34:51.572+01:002015-09-24T16:34:51.572+01:00(China crisis) The U.S. managed a crisis with not...(China crisis) The U.S. managed a crisis with nothing but local debt and capital inflows during that crisis. I find it ridiculous to presume that an emerging market with more total debt than the U.S. cannot have a crisis. It may not be the most likely outcome, but there are more ways to cause problems than to borrow in a foreign currency.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63239647830876200622015-09-24T16:33:19.829+01:002015-09-24T16:33:19.829+01:00MM - agreed 100% - completely different playbook. ...MM - agreed 100% - completely different playbook. I do think RMB will eventually over to 8, but thats because I remain a dollar bull, and I think it will take 2 years to get there, not 2 months. . washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18338321998488423012015-09-24T16:30:40.165+01:002015-09-24T16:30:40.165+01:00@ washed, Oh, I don;t think there's any debate...@ washed, Oh, I don;t think there's any debate that China has its own problems. But insofar as fears of a disorderly RMB meltdown started the current bout of volatility, and is still getting plenty of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/24/business/dealbook/a-big-bet-that-chinas-currency-will-devalue-further.html%22" rel="nofollow">airtime</a>, I think it's useful to remember that FX blow ups usually happen because you need to pay back foreign currency that you cannot afford...and that's clearly NOT the case with China.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38632835773253109952015-09-24T16:15:03.398+01:002015-09-24T16:15:03.398+01:00Donning the gloves...Donning the gloves...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com