tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1359133656507233725..comments2024-03-28T00:23:22.838+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Whew.....and ouchMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16501439573016839012007-10-02T10:43:00.000+01:002007-10-02T10:43:00.000+01:00Oh, I wasn't referring to you, wcw. Indeed, as yo...Oh, I wasn't referring to you, wcw. Indeed, as you know I have dabbled in the homeys from the short side myself. I was more referring to index shorts (some of whom are of my acquaintance)who cannot understand why the S&P 500 keeps going up despite weakness in housing.<BR/><BR/>I remember the discussion and appreciate the follow up.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84787772304761237942007-10-02T06:36:00.000+01:002007-10-02T06:36:00.000+01:00Hey, watchit. You can be a 'housing market bear' ...Hey, watchit. You can be a 'housing market bear' and be out of your short homebuilder positions. The one has to do with things like housing prices and starts, the other to do with your judgment of what price is high enough to make a continued short position attractive.<BR/><BR/>Back when, probably on the a Ritholtz comments thread, at much higher homebuilder prices and while I was still short, you asked somthing like 'how low should the homeys go?' I quantified an answer (~3/4ths post-writedown book) at time when books multiples were closer to 1.5x and few writedowns had been taken.<BR/><BR/>These days, book multiples might be 1.1x on some mostly written-down stock. While you don't see me in the market going long, I've been out of my shorts for a good while. The difference between 1.5x book before writedowns and 1.1x after is the difference between a good short and a bad one.<BR/><BR/>Now, housing prices, that's another thing..<BR/><BR/>Ah, found it. Cf http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/12/gdp_revisions_a.htmlwcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60664240753071323782007-09-30T18:02:00.000+01:002007-09-30T18:02:00.000+01:00Better late than never, afew replies....jdc: Duff ...Better late than never, afew replies....<BR/><BR/>jdc: Duff Man is, in fact, Macro Man's brother. The clue is in the last name ;)<BR/><BR/>anonymous, the Economist has a brilliant <A HREF="http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2006/12/oh-no.html" REL="nofollow">track record</A> of marking intermediate bottoms in the greenback by making dollar weakness the cover story. I don't know the history of other magazine covers, to be honest; all I know is that the Economist jinx seems to work.<BR/><BR/>T, there was a story circulating last week that Japan Post has already decided to make substantial allocations out of bonds and into domestic and foreign equities over the next few years. At this point it is still unclear how they will proceed, but yes, it would appear that they will serve as another source of risky-asset liquidity.<BR/><BR/>RJ, I view the current rally in equities partially as reflecting the still-generous liquidity environment, yes. There is also the issue of large3 companies being well-placed to benefit from globalization; small compnaies and labour, less so. Not sure if either of these phenomena will change any time soon, though protectionism could oput a dent in each.<BR/><BR/>Mickson, far from brilliant- otherwsie I woould have paid the bid/ask on the powerball strip and saved myself a couple of percent! Cheers though...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7344950399495620532007-09-29T20:35:00.000+01:002007-09-29T20:35:00.000+01:00Brilliant trading month, well done!!!Brilliant trading month, well done!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72630280414049048372007-09-29T13:45:00.000+01:002007-09-29T13:45:00.000+01:00I have been trying to fade the dollar weakness tre...I have been trying to fade the dollar weakness trend all week, (against the majors)which has been.....very painful.Bankerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03215896316185279351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79040977296616713182007-09-28T18:20:00.000+01:002007-09-28T18:20:00.000+01:00No doubt the headline indices have been impressive...No doubt the headline indices have been impressive but there has been considerable sloppiness underneath. While bulls can happily point to present levels and feel smug in their earlier forecasts the same cannot be said about their playbooks as to how we've come to now (bottoms, containments, falling oil, etc..etc..)<BR/>Resilience?Complacency?Or just milk from Mother Fed? <BR/>RJAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21002596858473788092007-09-28T16:12:00.000+01:002007-09-28T16:12:00.000+01:00May be something to the Large Cap story, altho I p...May be something to the Large Cap story, altho I prefer non US large caps right now. In a falling interest rate environment, even US consumption may be propped up for a while.<BR/><BR/>There's a balance sheet consideration, and an income consideration. If all or most assets are in the US, they'll be getting cheaper for the sovereign and other buyers. If they export all or most of their production, their incomes will not be falling from the foreign perspective. That's your ideal target, not the debt loaded crap to be sold by the private equity funds.<BR/><BR/>In such a twitchy market, it's hard to catch bargains with research. I'll stick with simple GLD and FX for October (thanks Corey as well.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42814347310190371182007-09-28T13:38:00.000+01:002007-09-28T13:38:00.000+01:00now that the congestion around $730 spot gold has ...now that the congestion around $730 spot gold has worked out this morning to the upside, my thought is the next two weeks will be all about chasing prices higher in gold (or chasing the dollar lower). my sense is MM is correct in his interpretation of dollar positioning - i.e. concensus view is a rebound, but length in euro, et. al. is nowhere near an extreme. $850 by end of October is still on the radar.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58069532301728494252007-09-28T11:47:00.000+01:002007-09-28T11:47:00.000+01:00http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id...http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9867489<BR/><BR/>"On October 1st the ten-year process of privatising the postal system begins, with huge financial implications. It is the world's largest bank, with almost $2 trillion in assets. Its deposits represent a quarter of Japan's total household savings; its insurance arm accounts for 40% of the country's life-insurance policies."<BR/><BR/>"Its capital-adequacy ratio, a measure of its risk intolerance, is 54%; at other commercial banks it is around 10%."<BR/><BR/>Albeit over a long period, does this mean a lot of japanese savings are now going to redirected to riskier assets and with a multiplier effect if the capital adequacy ratio is decreased? Is this going to prolong the party?<BR/><BR/>I welcome macro man's sagacious judgment.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67584691818923630002007-09-28T09:39:00.000+01:002007-09-28T09:39:00.000+01:00Why do you consider The Economist, and for that ma...Why do you consider The Economist, and for that matter, any other decent publication, as a counter-trend indicator? Because you think it's a good sign that $ weakness is already "in the mainstream"..? But isn't the whole "let's fade all mainstream publications' covers" already a mainstream thought in itself? If markets are pretty efficient and quick-reacting everywhere, shouldn't it be also true for covers of magazines and newspapers?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2856657761216702007-09-28T09:34:00.000+01:002007-09-28T09:34:00.000+01:00Does anyone else find Macro Man's posts are signif...Does anyone else find Macro Man's posts are significantly better if you read them in the voice of Duff Man from The Simpsons?<BR/><BR/>"Macro Man is thrusting in the direction of the excess liquidity"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com