tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post127949142634185644..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Swedish VengabusMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11335149607851011772011-11-21T21:21:34.063+00:002011-11-21T21:21:34.063+00:00C says'
Don't worry Corey I wasn't fol...C says'<br />Don't worry Corey I wasn't following a recommend form you nor indeed would i do that.It was just the post made me relook at my setups having passed earlier in the week and lo I found I had one ready to .Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51290948529260986032011-11-21T19:05:21.174+00:002011-11-21T19:05:21.174+00:00@ C
Err, youre welcome. But dont listen to me I&#...@ C<br />Err, youre welcome. But dont listen to me I'm not even brave enough to do that...although I probably should.Coreynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88239713336309365162011-11-21T16:57:54.598+00:002011-11-21T16:57:54.598+00:00c SAYS'
Small thanks to Corey last week.His ti...c SAYS'<br />Small thanks to Corey last week.His tiemly rejoinder Was just enough to make me go and do another run through and got me the add that I'd previously decided not to go for.<br /><br />LB,<br />Is the back of the shed where people go for decoupling exercises ;) ?<br />Don't smirk ,but I might also have a few treasuries ,god I feel such a whimp !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76316905089613415222011-11-21T16:36:44.052+00:002011-11-21T16:36:44.052+00:00The view from the safety of the Treasury and corpo...The view from the safety of the Treasury and corporates tank seems preferable for today. Possible Kevlar modeling opportunity ahead, chaps. You know you look especially good in metallic grey, Polemic.<br /><br />NZT equity longs bleeding from their severed limbs like the Black Knight. It's just a flesh wound... but you'd have to say this is a decent entry point.<br /><br />The EMs are behind the woodshed today, and there is some screaming going on. I might venture back there later and see if there are any opportunities. Not yet though, not enough Kevlar on yet.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57046183476035010632011-11-21T10:09:53.370+00:002011-11-21T10:09:53.370+00:00"Anon 10:10, you are a bit behind the news&qu..."Anon 10:10, you are a bit behind the news"<br /><br />Yes going forward WTI can reconnect again to the rest of the world. But as you say, thats going to happen in the future. Until then WTI front can still disconnect completely, as it has in the past. Same with US Natgas BTW.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40956711470362254712011-11-19T00:35:45.744+00:002011-11-19T00:35:45.744+00:00RE GBPSEK on a technical basis we are at the top o...RE GBPSEK on a technical basis we are at the top of the range. also triple top scenario 23/9 & 30/9. I understand the fundamental analysis but why not wait for the break out? rather than going short as per the rangeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77308208311377395002011-11-18T19:42:31.028+00:002011-11-18T19:42:31.028+00:00A prolonged discussion of ECRI's indicators fr...A prolonged discussion of ECRI's indicators from Doug Short. I maintain my position that this is a far from useful metric, and that it leans excessively on equity valuations. Furthermore, like many other metrics, it was not designed for a World in ZIRP. The main ECRI indicator has predicted 17 of the last 4 recessions, but did predict the big ugly bloody obvious ones. Well Done, Chaps!<br /><br /><a href="http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ECRI-Weekly-Leading-Index.php" rel="nofollow"> Doug Short Deconvolution of ECRI Index </a><br /><br />In summary, I am NOT saying is not we will not have a recession, but that if you want to find out you would be better off talking to small business owners around town than listening to Achuthan. Massively overrated, overpaid and overexposed on TV.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86794320516415990632011-11-18T19:27:43.830+00:002011-11-18T19:27:43.830+00:00More cheerful data from Europe. We may have a sill...More cheerful data from Europe. We may have a silly rally into Thanksgiving in the US, but it will be meaningless as Spanish spreads take off :<br /><br /><a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/BR.gif" rel="nofollow"> Spain-German yield spreads </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40118608732970479822011-11-18T15:35:06.387+00:002011-11-18T15:35:06.387+00:00Now that the Occupy London lot have taken over the...Now that the Occupy London lot have taken over the UBS office, activist Sarah Layler said, "the bank of ideas will host a full events programme where people will be able to trade in creativity rather than cash," I can see why Imatwati has ensconsed himself at Crown Place.ntwscnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21649900761598675952011-11-18T01:58:49.302+00:002011-11-18T01:58:49.302+00:00LB, Bruce has his own blog site,
http://brucekrast...LB, Bruce has his own blog site,<br />http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/<br />the comments, on his site, tend to be much more cerebral then ZH.JohnLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16277794221279494655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9181890040172126822011-11-17T21:05:06.589+00:002011-11-17T21:05:06.589+00:00While we don't always see eye to eye here with...While we don't always see eye to eye here with The Blog That Shall Not Be Named, LB happens to agree with this post so completely that we could have written every word:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/bet-bullard" rel="nofollow"> MF Global Crisis of Confidence </a><br /><br />A lot of people aren't going to exhale or sleep well until those MF Global investors are made whole, or at least have their accounts unfrozen. You would feel this immediately in London if someone mid-sized went bust with frozen customer funds.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90304350010309337012011-11-17T18:24:06.822+00:002011-11-17T18:24:06.822+00:00No wonder we are suddenly Occupying everywhere ove...No wonder we are suddenly Occupying everywhere over here. Americans are just now waking and beginning to realize that they have been under Occupation by a hostile kleptocracy for some time. <br /><br />Things are getting sleazier and sleazier in Obanana's Untied States of Bananamerica:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/top-favorite-stock-holdings-of-congress/" rel="nofollow"> Congressional Stock Holdings </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11910649349947483672011-11-17T17:56:36.109+00:002011-11-17T17:56:36.109+00:00Adding to the Whack-A-Mole situation , you'd h...Adding to the Whack-A-Mole situation , you'd have to weight accordingly to which side is favoured to go bidless\offerless at the "current levels".<br /><br />If it was to break up ,you'd know soon enough up here if it was for real or may be not.These bailout induced 2011 rallies up here aren't cutting it lately...Japan-Budget-BlahBlahBlah...<br /><br />Bailout fatigue may be metamorphosing into Buba fatigue when those hard data points start to roll around...I've never yet met one german pro punter..that takes predictive analysis.Amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44171916643307699762011-11-17T16:51:40.179+00:002011-11-17T16:51:40.179+00:00....and somebody else's debt has just gone NO .......and somebody else's debt has just gone NO BID today, as their share price returns to single digits: <br /><br /><a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-17/jefferies-ceo-sees-turmoil-easing-as-mf-global-memories-fade.html" rel="nofollow"> JEF Credit Crunch? </a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45145952648018606382011-11-17T16:29:35.820+00:002011-11-17T16:29:35.820+00:00Correct. That's why the Game of Chicken cannot...Correct. That's why the Game of Chicken cannot continue more than a few more weeks, or possibly days. So Euro Whack-A-Mole is one reason why volume has dried up, at least in US trading. Nobody wants to have whipsaw markets for more than a week or two, it becomes exhausting and demoralizing. <br /><br />Here is the other:<br /><br /><a href="http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/11/16/with-mf-global-money-still-lost-suspicions-grow/" rel="nofollow"> MF Global Still Money Lost </a><br /><br />In the aftermath of MF Global, faith in one's brokers (already thin in view of evidence that they routinely trade against their clients) is wearing extremely thin. If another one of these firms blows there will be capital flight from anyone not deemed TBTF, or essentially a run on smaller brokers. <br /><br />Add this newer hazard to the rise of HFT and flash crashes (which have essentially negated the use of stops) and you have a market that is alarming even to seasoned investors.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57828278608861892792011-11-17T15:19:52.310+00:002011-11-17T15:19:52.310+00:00The problem is that the point at which Italian/Spa...The problem is that the point at which Italian/Spanish paper is selling now will ensure breaking off from Euro and defaulting on their debts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28538988885270137152011-11-17T14:33:03.726+00:002011-11-17T14:33:03.726+00:00Alen's comment today is right on: "My fee...Alen's comment today is right on: "My feeling is that most euro zone sovereign debt was absurdly priced in the decade up to Lehmans. Now it's merely reverting to where yields once again reflect market fundamentals. Italian spreads ought to be wide."<br /><br />Indeed. Like the re-pricing of credit risk in the US during the 2007-2008 crisis, this market reflects the shock that accompanies restoration of reality from illusion. <br /><br />Is a market disorderly when there is genuine price discovery? The answer is, yes, but only during the transition. German-Italian spreads are not going back to where they were, but at some point this paper will trade again.<br /><br />The action in crude has been a little strange. This surge looks temporary, considering the fact that US gasoline prices have been falling for a while now. Domestic demand is therefore modest, and a firmer dollar is likely to bring lower oil prices.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74082925494882604542011-11-17T11:03:09.822+00:002011-11-17T11:03:09.822+00:00Anon 10:10, you are a bit behind the news: ConocoP...Anon 10:10, you are a bit behind the news: ConocoPhillips shocked the markets yesterday by their announcement of a sale of their stake in the Seaway pipeline to Enbridge for $1.15 billion. In turn, Enbridge and the pipeline operator Enterprise who own the other 50% announced plans to reverse the line so that it could bring oil from Cushing to the US Gulf, thus allowing WTI to compete with international crude oil once more. The plan is to start in 2Q next year at the rate of 150,000 b/d and increase capacity to 400,000 b/d by late 2013. It doesn’t take much in the way of mathematics to work out that the 150,000 b/d – say a million barrels a week, or 50 million barrels a year – would have prevented the build-up of stocks at Cushing to record levels in April of this year of 42 million barrels.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57158146335562532182011-11-17T10:10:58.715+00:002011-11-17T10:10:58.715+00:00The WTI front contract is not indicative of any gl...The WTI front contract is not indicative of any global oil price, it's a local price in landlocked Cushing, Oklahoma and depends mostly on storage, disruptions and other local factors. Nobody apart from a few refineries in Oklahoma can consume crude at WTI prices. 'Real' oil you can ship worldwide has traded between $100 and $120/bbl since Jan.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40335520932105166152011-11-16T19:49:58.230+00:002011-11-16T19:49:58.230+00:00On your analogy btw the ECB and FED, other than th...On your analogy btw the ECB and FED, other than that both are central banks I dont see the similarity. j/k I think they will get there, just not as soon as we'd like. <br /><br />On holiday rally - I think it was a bit like TMMs charity appeal this year in that it came early and hit its target sooner than expected...in other words Oct was it. Currently looking for the rising wedge to wrong way first trade. <br /><br />On yesterdays post regarding TMM = Team Micro Man, it just doesn't have the same ring to it.Coreynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5608862415210422022011-11-16T19:48:57.396+00:002011-11-16T19:48:57.396+00:00C says'
Anon 7.03
Don't be like that ,sure...C says'<br />Anon 7.03<br />Don't be like that ,surely you don't think all of this low rate policy comes completely free of charge do you? Personally, I look at this way,if an apple a day keeps the doctor away surely a barrel of oil a day is cheap to keep the default away .Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88844381674363306402011-11-16T19:03:54.051+00:002011-11-16T19:03:54.051+00:00WTI Crude at the begin. of Oct was $75/barrel. Tod...WTI Crude at the begin. of Oct was $75/barrel. Today over $100? So did anyone see any significant changes to the economy? What a rip-off!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30720851887879503732011-11-16T14:59:47.723+00:002011-11-16T14:59:47.723+00:0075bps bid/offer spreads, not over bunds, to clarif...75bps bid/offer spreads, not over bunds, to clarifyabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62711702443500403222011-11-16T14:58:59.293+00:002011-11-16T14:58:59.293+00:00Agreed that it is only a matter of time before the...Agreed that it is only a matter of time before the uncertainty in the bond markets ( ie 75bps spreads on a govt bond) effects the real economy...<br /><br />LIBOR keeps creeping up... EURODOLLAR to = EURIBOR?abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90574733450506181672011-11-16T14:12:54.269+00:002011-11-16T14:12:54.269+00:00And before anyone else plays. "oooo caught yo...And before anyone else plays. "oooo caught you out" yes Estonia is also within maastricht guidelines. It's only a short ferry trip on the Georg Ots from Helsinki. Caviar prices have gone up a lot since i was last there pre EU.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.com