tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1127432882148904782..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: ...and now for something completely differentMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38979730244976924632016-09-10T05:57:26.800+01:002016-09-10T05:57:26.800+01:00Just few weeks ago I saw a comment about Dr. Ekpen...Just few weeks ago I saw a comment about Dr. Ekpen Temple, someone talking about how he has help him in his relationship break up, I also contacted him because i was facing the same problem in my relationship, today i can boldly recommend Dr. Ekpen Temple to someone who is also facing break up in his or her relationship to contact him for help today because he has help me restore my relationship back to normal, here is he contact details (ekpentemple@gmail.com) or whatsapp him on +2347050270218 Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01314344340595882285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85073378869130022692016-08-29T07:42:22.436+01:002016-08-29T07:42:22.436+01:00I just wanna know more about Chad, Brad and Thad.....I just wanna know more about Chad, Brad and Thad... <br />Can they please get a regular column!<br /><br />At least a collection of short stories.<br /><br />I need something to do.AWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63310008642620349862016-08-28T15:50:18.205+01:002016-08-28T15:50:18.205+01:00Post JHole, it looks to me like "forward guid...Post JHole, it looks to me like "forward guidance" means keeping the "will they/wont they" conversation going for the benefit of commenators and speculators, in effect not unlike like the inscrutable Fed and verbal obfuscations of yore. And who among us would deny that conditions seem to make the case for a rate hike a bit more likely? So long as the other big central banks are buying up assets, etc., and LIBOR has risen due to a change in regulations, surely there is room for a 25bp tweak. And perhaps equities need an excuse for a bit of a correction just about now, speaking of data dependency.<br /><br />Leaving aside for a moment the "tradeable content," Yellen seemed to say that the FOMC was not going to be doing much in the way of open market operations from now on. Instead, they will raise or lower the interest rate on reserves held at the Fed to raise or lower the domestic interbank offered rate, otherwise known as Fed Funds. <br /><br />And, umm, they have ruled out reduction of the balance sheet as a tool because the response of financial markets is unpredictable. Interesting how the metaphor "temper tantrum" has entered the lexicon of Fedspeak. <br /><br />Oh, and the days of 5-7% Fed Funds are gone. The range is 0-3% or 0-4%, or 1.5-2% for a midpoint. Flat curve, low inflation forever?Candlesteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09782230813519062800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51878068214352420012016-08-27T20:58:15.395+01:002016-08-27T20:58:15.395+01:00how apropos of abdallah given the Zirp nirp discus...how apropos of abdallah given the Zirp nirp discussionsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49791742718682539342016-08-27T17:14:21.370+01:002016-08-27T17:14:21.370+01:00
Are you in need of a loan? Do you want to pay off...<br />Are you in need of a loan? Do you want to pay off your bills? Do you want to be financially stable? All you have to do is to contact us for more information on how to get started and get the loan you desire. This offer is open to all that will be able to repay back in due time. Note-that repayment time frame is negotiable and at interest rate of 3% just email us Abdallah.afandi@financier.comfunloanfirmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06814665300514883570noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34082265137238791452016-08-27T12:42:34.266+01:002016-08-27T12:42:34.266+01:00http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2016/08/26/not-muc...http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2016/08/26/not-much-to-headline-gdp-revisions-major-revisions-of-corporate-profits/<br /><br />"Profits here have fallen now in five straight quarters, a revised succession from the Q1 benchmarks – with the Q4 (so far) trough now showing a contraction of 11.2% year-over-year instead of just -2.8% figured prior. The recalculated series estimates that this sustained contraction in profits began in Q2 2015, turning both Q2 and Q3 last year negative."<br /><br />...I suppose if you are 12 years old this doesn't matter in your stream of consciousness either...could this be the "what if we have a downturn and we're still at ZIRP?" moment? Nah, because we've progressively thought ourselves into NIRP... :)Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47850296411247967652016-08-26T22:31:59.294+01:002016-08-26T22:31:59.294+01:00XLU took a good kicking today, but only as far as ...XLU took a good kicking today, but only as far as the Aug 17 close. Through the June 2nd/3rd gap though; it'll be interesting to see if that sticks.Celeriac1972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40561767005801326262016-08-26T20:42:48.377+01:002016-08-26T20:42:48.377+01:00" Based on this economic outlook, the FOMC co..." Based on this economic outlook, the FOMC continues to anticipate that gradual increases in the federal funds rate will be appropriate over time to achieve and sustain employment and inflation near our statutory objectives. Indeed, in light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months."<br /><br />"Looking ahead, we will likely need to retain many of the monetary policy tools that were developed to promote recovery from the crisis. In addition, policymakers inside and outside the Fed may wish at some point to consider additional options to secure a strong and resilient economy."<br /><br />"In addition, policymakers could have less ability to cut short-term interest rates in the future than the simulations assume. By some calculations, the real neutral rate is currently close to zero, and it could remain at this low level if we were to continue to see slow productivity growth and high global saving.23 If so, then the average level of the nominal federal funds rate down the road might turn out to be only 2 percent, implying that asset purchases and forward guidance might have to be pushed to extremes to compensate."<br /><br />"Finally, the simulation analysis certainly overstates the FOMC's current ability to respond to a recession, given that there is little scope to cut the federal funds rate at the moment. But that does not mean that the Federal Reserve would be unable to provide appreciable accommodation should the ongoing expansion falter in the near term. In addition to taking the federal funds rate back down to nearly zero, the FOMC could resume asset purchases and announce its intention to keep the federal funds rate at this level until conditions had improved markedly--although with long-term interest rates already quite low, the net stimulus that would result might be somewhat reduced."<br /><br />"Despite these caveats, I expect that forward guidance and asset purchases will remain important components of the Fed's policy toolkit."<br /><br />"On the monetary policy side, future policymakers might choose to consider some additional tools that have been employed by other central banks, though adding them to our toolkit would require a very careful weighing of costs and benefits and, in some cases, could require legislation. For example, future policymakers may wish to explore the possibility of purchasing a broader range of assets. Beyond that, some observers have suggested raising the FOMC's 2 percent inflation objective or implementing policy through alternative monetary policy frameworks, such as price-level or nominal GDP targeting."<br /><br />"Gradual hikes" in the near term, acknowledging lower average FFR and potentially same tools in the future ECB/BOJ. The way I see it is asset purchases and killing the price discovery mechanism will never go away. Sure near term there was a mention of potential hikes in the future. It looks near term hawkish but long term extremely dovish.<br /><br />This year, I think the election theory is quite plausible i.e. no hikes until afterwards regardless of who wins. Then if everything crashes it won't matter as much. I don't know if we get some black swan in the form of a banking crisis or sovereign debt crisis but geopolitically speaking things are looking quite worry some. The Hillary block wants to attack Syria directly, EU is overheating internally and both are slapping huge tariffs on Chinese products which could potentially lead to a larger trade war, none of which seems to at least not lead to anything good for trade or sales/earnings. But then again, haven't basically all geopolitical events in history been faded?hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83940591032030493782016-08-26T20:40:57.090+01:002016-08-26T20:40:57.090+01:00@Anon at 7:20. There is very little fear out there...@Anon at 7:20. There is very little fear out there. It is August 26, after all, but the fear of rate hike/s may still be there next week. Dip buyers and vol sellers have already returned, perhaps b/c they are machines, and don't experience fear and anxiety.<br /><br />This will take time - time for volume to return to the markets, and time for the boundless complacency of US punters to ebb away and gradually give way to concern, anxiety and ultimately fear, at least on the scale we last saw in January; perhaps even margin calls, forced liquidation and sheer terror, who knows? Sentiment and momentum share a complex dance...<br /><br />FX markets have clearly got the message, though. The DX is putting in a very interesting candle today, as Bucky made up about two weeks of losses over five hours of trading. Not much sign of a bounce in silver, AUDUSD, CADUSD.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52289478305899943272016-08-26T20:40:56.938+01:002016-08-26T20:40:56.938+01:00No, not the big one uet, we still have the Ecb and...No, not the big one uet, we still have the Ecb and BoJ to throw a few wrenches. In too. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22616614217606454582016-08-26T20:40:49.113+01:002016-08-26T20:40:49.113+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11030488138875787022016-08-26T19:20:47.134+01:002016-08-26T19:20:47.134+01:00@nico,
Usually there is a more-than-one-day windo...@nico,<br /><br />Usually there is a more-than-one-day window after the speech, so I figured that I have until Monday afternoon to enter my shorts which were partially covered yesterday. <br /><br />Again, I do not think this is the big one. It is still too early IMO. So I hope there is still opportunity to load shorts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27510409623197169382016-08-26T18:53:02.712+01:002016-08-26T18:53:02.712+01:00Anon @ 5:38, probably not a bad trade, selling yen...Anon @ 5:38, probably not a bad trade, selling yen. Some things going for it: 1) market has to assume Kuroda is going to do something in Sep, 2) positioning (again, going by COT) is long and has stalled, 3) Japanese real money had USDJPY=100-ish at low-end of year's forecast and may be hedging less, 4) officials have kept up intervention rhetoric which maybe provides a soft cap on yen too, 5) yen is expensive on my models.<br /><br />johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46722206004745231562016-08-26T18:21:56.236+01:002016-08-26T18:21:56.236+01:00Somewhere in Columbia, S.C., there is an experienc...Somewhere in Columbia, S.C., there is an experienced pension fund risk officer, "Chip", who is having a quiet afternoon meeting with some 21yoPM and his bros, Chad, Thad and Brad.<br />"So, guys, you know what this meeting is about, right?" <br />"Uh, no, dude.... Baecations? Bros before Ho's?" Laughter. <br />"Well, no. It's nothing that major, but with realized vol at lifetime lows for eponymous blogger, Macro Man, I just wanted to remind you of our rules on position size limits. Especially when it comes to optionality and leverage". <br />[Silence]. <br />"Good, so you will remember that only 3% of your capital is to be at risk in selling vol, unleveraged?"<br />"Uh, yeah, sure. Of course, dude."<br />"Good, well, have a great weekend, guys." <br />[Bros exit to the corridor, silence for a while]<br />"Chad, are you gonna tell him?"<br />"What, Brad, that you f*ckin' went Rogue?"<br />"Yeah, you retard, you had to go Full Kerviel on this trade"<br />"Hey, we were livin' large this summer, man. The beach house, the chicks..."<br />"So.... how deep are we in this...?"<br />"Well, at 50 x leverage, our VaR is like 150% of the fund's capital, Thad...."<br />"Holy sh*t".<br />"Hey Dude, chill. Like, it's OPM. IBG, YBG."<br />"True dat".<br />"Chip is gonna shit his pants, man...."<br /><br /><br />Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13156017155954811322016-08-26T17:38:03.858+01:002016-08-26T17:38:03.858+01:00I managed to sell are sorts of stuff on the spike ...I managed to sell are sorts of stuff on the spike (including JYU6 at 1.00000), but unfortunately, in too small size to be meaningful. That said, it's still a plus day, and a decent finish to the week, and that is always preferable to the alternative. Would be nice if the schizophrenia so pervasive in the market recently would stay away until the NFP release next Friday, but I am certainly not depending on that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67303827376403411442016-08-26T17:33:32.699+01:002016-08-26T17:33:32.699+01:00European Bull,
Of interest in your extract I note ...European Bull,<br />Of interest in your extract I note she makes mention of "financial markets" twice and indeed she mentions them before she mentions the economy. Nice to know even at what is probably an unconscious level where the Feds priorities are.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84674455216429445112016-08-26T17:23:44.621+01:002016-08-26T17:23:44.621+01:00Thank you for the post on AUDNZD, MM. I also see a...Thank you for the post on AUDNZD, MM. I also see a sizable mis-pricing, but stayed sidelined, waiting for Wheeler's latest remarks to washout longs. My sense is that NZD has more exposed to carry-seeking flows, and therefore the direction of perceived US monetary policy matters for this cross. My takeaway (and the market's, judging by DXY and ED's) from Yellen is somewhat hawkish, so now just may be the time for AUDNZD. I've put some on and watching for some confirmation from the price.<br /><br />Gold. Judging by the COT, positioning is stretched and has lost momentum/is turning over a bit. Went short on the pop. Curious whether people think Kuroda will cut rates again. If the Fed is hiking this year, and Kuroda isn't pushing rates more negative, gold probably has significant downside, IMO.<br /><br />johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35433266746482289072016-08-26T17:09:17.588+01:002016-08-26T17:09:17.588+01:00anon this spike was a blessing what were you waiti...anon this spike was a blessing what were you waiting for, 2200?Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14858717431595207002016-08-26T17:06:43.315+01:002016-08-26T17:06:43.315+01:00Well, this is fast. I have not reloaded my short y...Well, this is fast. I have not reloaded my short yet... Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83331071348200050592016-08-26T17:00:19.669+01:002016-08-26T17:00:19.669+01:00Buffet has been mentioned in Yellen's speech. ...Buffet has been mentioned in Yellen's speech. That's about all i retain besides a great spike fadeNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66889047017024585932016-08-26T16:59:41.216+01:002016-08-26T16:59:41.216+01:00This seems to summarize the current situation with...This seems to summarize the current situation with respect to FOMC communications:<br /><br />https://grrrgraphics.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/janet_yellen_wolf.jpgLeftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34923216707827299372016-08-26T16:43:47.517+01:002016-08-26T16:43:47.517+01:00Bernanke told us a long time ago that the balance ...Bernanke told us a long time ago that the balance sheet would be unwound over many years by letting MBS and UST securities mature. He said this more than once. So that leaves the discount rate as the primary tool of monetary policy in the interim.<br /><br />There is a problem here in that the Fed Chair (and an increasing number of other FOMC members) is clearly telling the market that there will be tighter monetary policy, that this will be achieved only by rate hikes, and that although they will be "data-dependent", these could occur soon. The market is ignoring the Fed. We have therefore reached that point we have so often discussed, where the Fed has apparently lost credibility. This is the result of not having followed through on hikes in the past. The longer this charade continues, the uglier will be the resulting carnage.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75334333483976702552016-08-26T16:37:05.944+01:002016-08-26T16:37:05.944+01:00The $4T is now permanently part of the waste econo...The $4T is now permanently part of the waste economy. It's gone. It can't ever be unloaded. Interest rate is the only meaningless toy now with which they can play with a few quarter points here and there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82319073306431615452016-08-26T16:28:52.498+01:002016-08-26T16:28:52.498+01:00I just don't understand. How did they ever th...I just don't understand. How did they ever think they were going to unwind their $4T balance sheet?<br /><br />How about a new system for Fed employee compensation based on public votes? Or an American Idol style elimination competition for the Fed governor that makes the least sense?<br /><br />I'm fed up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34564900057454032452016-08-26T15:51:16.923+01:002016-08-26T15:51:16.923+01:00Quote from Yellen's speech:
"The FOMC co...Quote from Yellen's speech:<br /><br />"The FOMC considered removing accommodation by first reducing our asset holdings (including through asset sales) and raising the federal funds rate only after our balance sheet had contracted substantially. But we decided against this approach because our ability to predict the effects of changes in the balance sheet on the economy is less than that associated with changes in the federal funds rate. <b> Excessive inflationary pressures could arise if assets were sold too slowly. Conversely, financial markets and the economy could potentially be destabilized if assets were sold too aggressively. Indeed, the so-called taper tantrum of 2013 illustrates the difficulty of predicting financial market reactions to announcements about the balance sheet. Given the uncertainty and potential costs associated with large-scale asset sales, the FOMC instead decided to begin<br />have helped lower unemployment and boost inflation</b> ; removing monetary policy accommodation primarily by adjusting short-term interest rates rather than by actively managing its asset holdings."<br /><br />Honestly, I was hoping for more, but...<br />fear of market reactions > fear of excessive Inflation EuropeanBullnoreply@blogger.com