tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1024213557867108721..comments2024-03-29T12:12:06.420+00:00Comments on Macro Man: A bad day to have a bad dayMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73405539565851549232015-11-05T00:26:07.467+00:002015-11-05T00:26:07.467+00:00Yeah!Yeah!amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32789489761053493902015-11-04T20:49:45.523+00:002015-11-04T20:49:45.523+00:00re pmis- they are a diffusion index and dont say m...re pmis- they are a diffusion index and dont say much about actual level of growth...would rather focus on IP, retail sales, exports( germany) etc...activity data more important than sentiment data i think<br />short spoos here and basically given away early oct pnl in this rip:(<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3988825831871377752015-11-04T20:38:58.997+00:002015-11-04T20:38:58.997+00:00i think yellen made that statement under the assum...i think yellen made that statement under the assumption that doing so would decrease the probability of it actually happening - u know, otherwise known as jawboning.<br />She is making it up as she goes along - if we do go to NIRP i have just one suggestion for you - mortgage REITs - their carry would be positive on both legs.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5282878385155195262015-11-04T20:14:12.045+00:002015-11-04T20:14:12.045+00:00@Anon 7:52 - Ignore Yellen, she's senile. Anyw...@Anon 7:52 - Ignore Yellen, she's senile. Anyway she just says what the Obama administration tell her to say.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50120728829937860372015-11-04T19:52:28.574+00:002015-11-04T19:52:28.574+00:00Welcome to NIRP
*YELLEN SAYS IF OUTLOOK WORSENED ...Welcome to NIRP<br /><br />*YELLEN SAYS IF OUTLOOK WORSENED FED MIGHT WEIGH NEGATIVE RATES <br /><br />YELLEN SAYS NEGATIVE RATES COULD HELP ENCOURAGE BANKS TO LEND<br /><br />This is so bizarre, I really don't know what to say. What is wrong with her?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20782866974158744892015-11-04T17:30:20.252+00:002015-11-04T17:30:20.252+00:00thx for that abee - interesting comments from him ...thx for that abee - interesting comments from him - I'm with MM on the economy driving the markets idea - he is right about the improvement in PMIs, but thats a much more useful indicator for equity returns coming off a recession, not when you have seen steady growth for 3 years.<br />Clearly the market agrees with him, so there's that!washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21082447727762722512015-11-04T16:47:25.845+00:002015-11-04T16:47:25.845+00:00washed and MM, i just copied and pasted what I tho...washed and MM, i just copied and pasted what I thought was an interesting point of view in what seems to be a sea of bearish comments. Cornerstone is pretty good IMO, some ex ISI ppl including Francois Trahan who wrote the note<br /><br />From the website:<br /><br />In 2014, François was voted to Institutional Investor magazine’s All-American Research Team as the #1 Portfolio Strategist, and has been selected as #1 for eight of the past ten years. Since 2010, he has also been ranked among the top analysts for Quantitative Analysis as well.abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86353362572487998982015-11-04T16:36:04.697+00:002015-11-04T16:36:04.697+00:00@ abee: " The market follows the economy. Th...@ abee: " The market follows the economy. This is a fact." Since 1952, r^2 of quarterly changes in GDP and quarterly changes in SPX = 0.1. The R^2 of y/y changes in the GDP to y/y changes in the SPX is 0.075. There's an old saying that "the market is not the economy"....and it is rather dangerous IMHO to wave away the impact of liquidity/financial conditions, particularly when my work suggests that these explain the vast bulk of equity returns!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7042509177368194722015-11-04T16:36:03.054+00:002015-11-04T16:36:03.054+00:00@DWTBC/washed/Pol - Here's why I disagree with...@DWTBC/washed/Pol - Here's why I disagree with your comments on debt&deficit:<br /><br />To quote Druckenmiller, "All you do when you're doing this is you're pulling demand forward to today". <br /><br />You can pretend (to use your analogy) that you're spending the wife's money on yourself, that it all balances out, but that's not the case. It's more accurate to say that you're spending your kids college fund on your bar tab. Good luck with that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42950768114065318892015-11-04T15:45:44.082+00:002015-11-04T15:45:44.082+00:00@Pol -"A distribution of the power of choice&...@Pol -"A distribution of the power of choice"<br /><br />says the guy who thinks his wife will soon spend money on him - dream away at the patent office einstein!<br /><br />JK.<br /><br />@abee - are these guys(cornerstone) known to make prescient calls, or just another one of those 'i close my eyes and buy and it tends to all work out somehow' type shops.?washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53240764625154786942015-11-04T15:45:16.272+00:002015-11-04T15:45:16.272+00:00Downwith ..
Yes. It came to me on the fly just t...Downwith .. <br /><br />Yes. It came to me on the fly just then, but it's the shortest distilation I could come up with of the whole 'money/power/getting people to do things for you' thing. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10029837969813018082015-11-04T15:25:41.352+00:002015-11-04T15:25:41.352+00:00Polemic:
This is a very nice formulation: " ...Polemic:<br /><br />This is a very nice formulation: " Which is actually all money is anyway. A distribution of the power of choice. "<br /><br />Is it yours?DownWithTheBeanCountersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9153240605208830362015-11-04T14:52:34.764+00:002015-11-04T14:52:34.764+00:00*TREASURY SAYS IT WILL INCREASE BILL ISSUANCE IN C...*TREASURY SAYS IT WILL INCREASE BILL ISSUANCE IN COMING QTRS; SAYS DEMAND FOR BILLS IS HIGH AND EXPECTED TO GROWAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57375294119474138672015-11-04T14:51:16.035+00:002015-11-04T14:51:16.035+00:00US Trade Remains in Contraction: Imports -4.00% Yo...US Trade Remains in Contraction: Imports -4.00% YoY, Exports -3.67% YoY Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27790415120723335082015-11-04T14:43:16.200+00:002015-11-04T14:43:16.200+00:00Well..Pol..I tell ya what..you keep your fifty mil...Well..Pol..I tell ya what..you keep your fifty million in the bank and I "ll keep saving up at the local sperm bank and will both pretend theres nothing wrong with the economic model as progress regressamplitudenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84436656040348019082015-11-04T14:41:49.838+00:002015-11-04T14:41:49.838+00:00welcome back amps... missed ya
From Cornerstone
I...welcome back amps... missed ya<br /><br />From Cornerstone<br />It’s clear to us investors want to believe that the current rally will last, but the wall of worry is a tall one at this time. The most widespread fear we hear in meetings, aside from China going off the rails maybe, is that the Fed will start raising rates and that it will prove to be a game changer for markets. This is a myth. The Fed does not have the near-term impact on financial markets that most investors give it. The market follows the economy. This is a fact. In as much as the Fed can impact growth prospects, it can impact equities. Still, if the Fed were to raise rates next month, it would do little to change the outcome of the economy in the near-term. Indeed, it takes almost a year for a change in policy to impact the trend in growth. In the near-term, investors need to focus on the PMIs far more than on Fed policy.<br /><br />Here is where the good news comes in. The PMIs in October were VERY good for the markets. Indeed, PMIs rose in most countries around the globe. The even better news is that past policy (ie rates coming down around the world in the past year) argues that there will be many more months like October in the coming quarters. Macro research for equities boils down to one thing: economic momentum. What lies ahead, an uptrend in PMIs, is as good as it gets for equity returns. This is what the beginning of a bull market looks like. Enjoy the rise while it lasts. The Fed’s actions will help sow the seeds of growth, and equity returns in 2017. For now, focus on the road ahead … it should be a good one for equity investors. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76865368288449918332015-11-04T14:40:44.782+00:002015-11-04T14:40:44.782+00:00CNBC:
"Icahn repeated his prediction of probl...CNBC:<br />"Icahn repeated his prediction of problems ahead, telling a crowd at the annual DealBook conference Tuesday that he agrees with hedge fund titan Stanley Druckenmiller, who spoke before Icahn and said Federal Reserve policies are going to cause woes for the market. "There are going to be real problems. We're walking into a minefield of what's going on with the Fed," Icahn said. "I could go on and on here, but I think we have problems."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65071655665781762552015-11-04T14:32:01.045+00:002015-11-04T14:32:01.045+00:00Language, amplitude.Language, amplitude.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49155047461730559872015-11-04T14:22:01.739+00:002015-11-04T14:22:01.739+00:00One person's deficit is another persons surplu...One person's deficit is another persons surplus. The ownership of IOUs is a complex relationship between issuer and owner that comes down to inforcability. Current accounts are balanced by captal accounts and the capital account investor is as beholden one way as the current account debtor is the other. It is not a simple argument to say you are screwed if you have grillions of outstanding debt. the other thing is who owns that debt. If it's overseas folks they are beholden on US to pay them back, if its local then its all in house. ie if I lend Mrs Pol £10bio and she spends it on me, then what's the difference to that and me spending it myself, other than who decided what to buy with it. Which is actually all money is anyway. A distribution of the power of choice. <br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2251795250124056242015-11-04T14:15:29.647+00:002015-11-04T14:15:29.647+00:00No...fu!ck off Abee..I dont want it...and I dont w...No...fu!ck off Abee..I dont want it...and I dont want to be lumbered with its cousin stocks...or its sidekick option never no touch option spread...I dont want anything to do with it. Its all a lark for these twenty something year old. Fuck off..take your lark somewhere else<br />amplitudenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66109183091109367572015-11-04T13:40:26.548+00:002015-11-04T13:40:26.548+00:00Druckenmiller re-iterated the point many have made...Druckenmiller re-iterated the point many have made, about how central banks have destroyed price discovery in markets. This morning I read that: <i>"China’s central bank unintentionally sparked a surge in the nation’s stock market by publishing five-month-old comments from governor Zhou Xiaochuan... the Shanghai Composite jumped over 3%"</i>.<br /><br />Couldn't make this sh*t up. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34894165623441904542015-11-04T13:29:31.497+00:002015-11-04T13:29:31.497+00:00Interesting legal precedent for spoofing. Followin...Interesting legal precedent for spoofing. Following criminal prosecution, a spoofer faces 25 years in prison. NB If you read the legal fine print in this judgement, many HFT firms face the possibility of criminal charges going forwards.<br /><br />http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/04/us-trader-found-guilty-in-landmark-spoofing-case.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18432478532203875712015-11-04T13:23:37.238+00:002015-11-04T13:23:37.238+00:00@MM, without divulging the contents of the model, ...@MM, without divulging the contents of the model, how can you possibly criticize my critique? I have stitched together a mental picture of how it works based on your narratives over the last two years and am doing the best I can with it - no disrespect meant, obviously, and good to know it worked well in the 1970's (I will add that to my mental picture).<br /><br />The bitcoin rally may or may not imply anything about the illuminati's investment decisions, but if I was a gold bug I would be really dismayed - looks like the world is ending crowd have a serious alternative now.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23332638332801653172015-11-04T13:08:30.624+00:002015-11-04T13:08:30.624+00:00@ washed, without knowing the contents of the mode...@ washed, without knowing the contents of the model, how can you possibly say when it will or won't work? In fact, I have a trimmed down version of it that goes back to 1970, and it seemed to work just fine pre 1982.<br /><br />@Abee, the BTC rally is on tiny volume, which again sort of disqualifies it from serious discussion IMHO. The chart is more reminiscent of pets.com than any legitimate store of value/medium of exchange.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12819417517042125102015-11-04T13:03:09.964+00:002015-11-04T13:03:09.964+00:00thanks for the dealbook refrence. Drukenmiller is ...thanks for the dealbook refrence. Drukenmiller is great, but a trader first, imo<br /><br />Perhaps he, Elliot Singer and the rest of the bearish crowd are buying bitcoin, which is up 50% in 3 days... or maybe its the Chinese as its rumored..<br /><br />in spite of all that, and more VW problems, Eurostxx looks to be breaking out of the past few days range... abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.com