tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post938649415085628665..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: What's in the price?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55865446348343240052015-03-18T01:31:26.378+00:002015-03-18T01:31:26.378+00:00http://news.forexlive.com/!/new-way-of-pricing-gol...http://news.forexlive.com/!/new-way-of-pricing-gold-to-come-into-operation-on-friday-20-march-20150318Rivernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7987997005745336322015-03-17T15:32:06.326+00:002015-03-17T15:32:06.326+00:00Probably too long-term a consideration for this es...Probably too long-term a consideration for this esteemed audience, but perhaps DXY outperformance owes as much to capital flows escaping EM and Europe in search of (perceived) safety ahead of the next blow-up rather than a few bps of extra yield.Error403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61918232097772074982015-03-17T15:30:26.388+00:002015-03-17T15:30:26.388+00:00I think out of all of those indicators Eurodollars...I think out of all of those indicators Eurodollars are "closest" to the Feds actions, the others are affected by too many other factors to really be able to isolate expectations too closely. Given as you say they rally back so quickly after any strong data point says to me that they seriously doubt the Feds ability to hike and therefore the balance of risks is skewed heavily to a hawkish outcome rather than a dovish one.... For what it's worth I think the press conference will closely resemble yellens appearance before congress 3 weeks ago....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38703395590066029042015-03-17T13:45:40.718+00:002015-03-17T13:45:40.718+00:00http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas...http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/ireland-ignored-ec-advice-to-stop-economy-overheating-1.2108104<br /><br />Former deputy director of the IMF Dónal Donovan said although the organisation noted some vulnerabilities in Ireland during the time leading up to the banking collapse, its assessments “gave no inkling” that a financial disaster was in the making. He said the IMF got it more badly wrong in Ireland than he had seen in any other country. “I cannot recall in my experience a situation where the rosy picture turned so negatively in such a short period of time(!).”<br /><br />Happy St. Patty's to all. Got green?!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39145120870574070432015-03-17T12:38:08.253+00:002015-03-17T12:38:08.253+00:00thx - look fwd to seeing the results of this one. ...thx - look fwd to seeing the results of this one. The response better be quick it has a short shelf life!washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10455254857966182742015-03-17T12:24:34.072+00:002015-03-17T12:24:34.072+00:00Well, I kind of think it depends on the question a...Well, I kind of think it depends on the question and my perception of market positioning. <a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1PggnoYu4_sbnlJX9al8-nwuqNOpL_mw6hKnVrjQ5DB4/viewanalytics" rel="nofollow">This survey</a>, which I believe was from last August, was obviously very prescient, as it indicated that the market wanted a $ position at a time when it didn't have it. Were the same result to emerge today, I would be mroe sceptical.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67494678775196226002015-03-17T11:06:45.844+00:002015-03-17T11:06:45.844+00:00MM - my survey response is in, and I have a relate...MM - my survey response is in, and I have a related question for you.<br />Do you treat the responses of MM surveys as a contrarian signal, or a true one?<br />Over the years, but especially in the last two with new management and a changed cast and crew at MM, I have noticed that unlike say the AAII surveys or CFTC position reports, punters here have a had a decent record at predicting 'actual' market moves over a 3 month period - needless to say that this is hardly a controlled experiment or a quality signal , but not sure why that is.washedupnoreply@blogger.com