tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post9040200540137093963..comments2024-03-29T15:07:48.008+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The Dreaded Return of Five Minute MacroMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30341060229613264422009-07-30T23:47:20.500+01:002009-07-30T23:47:20.500+01:00Did Voldemort stop hoovering Euros?
The 5 minute ...Did Voldemort stop hoovering Euros?<br /><br />The 5 minute macro has given me the itchy finger and I missed half the recent move on cable.Professional Gringonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21281625750827491802009-07-30T21:56:06.063+01:002009-07-30T21:56:06.063+01:00MacroMan - Good call on central banks, but also th...MacroMan - Good call on central banks, but also the Fed bought $6.5 bn of Treasuries today, http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm. That doesn't hurt.<br /><br />Wouldn't be surprised if the US did some kind of deal with China to have it extend maturities at this recent pow-wow. The Fed balance sheet has been moving steadily out to higher risk, China is the last big pool of risk money still uninvested in risk assets.<br /><br />Equity markets are at insane levels. I guess some of the hot money didn't want to wait for the GDP data, and sold at the US close.PJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62121405723560365572009-07-30T20:59:23.478+01:002009-07-30T20:59:23.478+01:00You never said you were friends with Lincoln Ellis...You never said you were friends with Lincoln Ellis. Getting props on Bllomberg, from not a shill. Cool.<br /><br />HAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89429505266405926362009-07-30T20:51:50.875+01:002009-07-30T20:51:50.875+01:00MM - Brilliant call on the CB's coming in to s...MM - Brilliant call on the CB's coming in to save the day on the sevens. Here I come to save the day, that means that Mighty Mouse is on his way. Or Charlie Chan.<br /><br />HAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50090730813189724982009-07-30T17:31:00.419+01:002009-07-30T17:31:00.419+01:00Can't handle the Bloomberg.com's neurotic ...Can't handle the Bloomberg.com's neurotic need to explain away daily equity price action in ten words or less. There's a culprit for the five minute macro.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48071921468191225032009-07-30T17:23:09.075+01:002009-07-30T17:23:09.075+01:007 not 2. I need to stop trading treasuries or adju...7 not 2. I need to stop trading treasuries or adjust my sleep patterns - doing this out of asia when results come out at 1am is not cool.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2807191672491877542009-07-30T16:11:37.098+01:002009-07-30T16:11:37.098+01:00I'm actually bullish on equities and even I...I'm actually bullish on equities and even I'm surprised at the strength of this market - don't get in the way of this thingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81167008355164883672009-07-30T16:07:46.501+01:002009-07-30T16:07:46.501+01:002 year did come out wide (on Tuesday.) I have a s...2 year did come out wide (on Tuesday.) I have a sneaky susicion that the Cbs will coem back to play in today's 7 yrMacro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45173023994089980542009-07-30T16:05:44.843+01:002009-07-30T16:05:44.843+01:00Question to all: bought 1000 mini calls to hedge t...Question to all: bought 1000 mini calls to hedge the book, do we roll up to 1040 from here? This is nuts. I hope this 2 yr auction comes out wiiiiiide.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19457852791340217142009-07-30T14:34:55.374+01:002009-07-30T14:34:55.374+01:00not central banks sellers. actually "middle e...not central banks sellers. actually "middle east names". are these rumors still working?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60317128423151228942009-07-30T14:31:58.554+01:002009-07-30T14:31:58.554+01:00Initial claims, while punk, despite seasonal-adjus...Initial claims, while punk, despite seasonal-adjustment noise have been at "improved" levels from their worst for a while. This heartens folks, rightly, into believing the end of the recession may have happened or may happen soon. And they're right: things probably trough in Q3 or so.<br /><br />But that's still no excuse to go limit bid stocks, unless you expect a V-bottom. And a peak in claims is not enough for a V-bottom. The market is getting its bid nevertheless. As I have said, it just wants to rally.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45831148907716239352009-07-30T14:08:11.425+01:002009-07-30T14:08:11.425+01:00Today's US first-time claims matched the conse...Today's US first-time claims matched the consensus and were better than I expected. We'll have to see how this plays out in coming weeks, but I would characterize this as the best weekly report since Jan 3. On pace for US unemployment to peak Q1 2010 circa 11%. Consistent with July employment report showing a loss of 250k overall with unemployment 9.7%.PJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33634916225350258792009-07-30T13:28:07.433+01:002009-07-30T13:28:07.433+01:00Do you really think next week's employment mak...Do you really think next week's employment makes a difference at this point? Wouldn't the number have to be extremely far off expectations? Even then, don't we all sort of know we have employment problems?Bob, Becky, Ella Janehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15597508529695850380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24648066790256410372009-07-30T13:14:25.821+01:002009-07-30T13:14:25.821+01:00Yeah, there were like 70 companies reporting today...Yeah, there were like 70 companies reporting today...seems as if they were solid in aggregate. Divvy strip gone bid, which is a prtty good tell on how it was taken..Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1733762743828409782009-07-30T13:12:15.429+01:002009-07-30T13:12:15.429+01:00MacroMan - Try waiting 20 minutes, your P&L ma...MacroMan - Try waiting 20 minutes, your P&L may turn around.<br /><br />What's with this claim that European earnings are good, any truth to it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40283959118145943552009-07-30T12:44:34.948+01:002009-07-30T12:44:34.948+01:00Nemo, let's put it this way: I was so bad at ...Nemo, let's put it this way: I was so bad at it that after a couple of years I got shunted straight to the dark side (read: a sales desk) for a year and a half....Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3679665062139419172009-07-30T12:26:08.282+01:002009-07-30T12:26:08.282+01:00As tempting as it is, I find google trends crap fo...As tempting as it is, I find google trends crap for tracking memes. It just doesn't seem to work that well. For example, I don't think this captures what is going on right now that well:<br /><br />http://www.google.com/trends?q=protectionism&ctab=0&geo=us&geor=all&date=ytd&sort=0Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86239721306362996262009-07-30T12:18:18.565+01:002009-07-30T12:18:18.565+01:00Macro Man, I wish I hadn't come back from holi...Macro Man, I wish I hadn't come back from holidays. Trading the noise is extraordinarily labor intensive and marginal P&L at best. <br /><br />How on earth did you survive as a market maker in FX options in your youth doing this if you hate the 5 min game so much? <br /><br />NemoNemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80086513873336909142009-07-30T12:17:13.481+01:002009-07-30T12:17:13.481+01:00http://www.google.com/trends?q=economic+depression...http://www.google.com/trends?q=economic+depression&ctab=0&geo=us&geor=all&date=all&sort=0<br /><br />correct linkAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1670864159733313242009-07-30T12:15:55.958+01:002009-07-30T12:15:55.958+01:00What do you make of this?
http://www.google.com/t...What do you make of this?<br /><br />http://www.google.com/trends?q=economic+depression&ctab=0&geo=us&geor=all&date=all&sort=0Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46326185710110819052009-07-30T10:05:35.471+01:002009-07-30T10:05:35.471+01:00Agree with Anon 9.48 re bloomberg's new CNBC s...Agree with Anon 9.48 re bloomberg's new CNBC slant. Must have taken ths fed/GS/illuminati shilling .. <br /><br />Its all like living in "the Matrix" at the moment. The governing powers are sucking dry the very lifeforce of the populace for their own means, all the while providing there comatose bodies with an illusion of a false reality. <br /><br />Dish out the Red Pills!!<br /><br />yours<br /><br />Mr and Mrs Bollox-Innit and their son SaulS B-I.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1547873145184028262009-07-30T09:48:42.729+01:002009-07-30T09:48:42.729+01:00Let's end the twenty four hour macro. I don...Let's end the twenty four hour macro. I don't know which devil decided to bid the gbp ahead of the astounding housing uptick. At this point, I will be crying crocodile tears when all the fledgling Trumps of the Isles get handed fifty percent haircuts on their investments. But bugger off already will ya. Ya just fodder for the Brown nose man and the Swerve to do what? Get through another month before a no confidence vote? <br /><br />Bloomberg has turned into CNBC cheerleading service. It's all going to hell in a hand bucket.<br /><br />HAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com