tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post9011666326214463124..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Go ugly earlyMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61362815387106914162008-07-09T11:17:00.000+01:002008-07-09T11:17:00.000+01:00wait until the USD rallies 1-2% and then jump in.....wait until the USD rallies 1-2% and then jump in....prefer to miss the first move and then get in for the meat of the action than be early and wrong.....unfortunately so long as equities,the world, etc is trading poorly don't think the Fed will have the guts to hike and therefore the USD will not have the potential to rally....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11743509751357966792008-07-09T08:04:00.000+01:002008-07-09T08:04:00.000+01:00You got to love this world where heads and shoulde...You got to love this world where heads and shoulders are forebearings of bear markets, where dogs turns into princesses, and subsequently rally like banshees :) <BR/><BR/>On the face of it I would say that equities still have some way to go on the downside but with oil taking a breather today it is perhaps apt to stay clear.<BR/><BR/>How do you guys see the whole dollar smile scenario. Some of the most seasoned currency analysts are muttering about a dollar rally against almost everything but the Euro. Is it time to punt on the buck? <BR/><BR/>ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21394969327333487862008-07-08T23:12:00.000+01:002008-07-08T23:12:00.000+01:00I love your head & shoulders chart! So clear. We ...I love your head & shoulders chart! So clear. <BR/><BR/>We had a very strong rally in NY today, all of the dogs transformed into princesses and rallied like banshees. Most of the really downtrodden names were up at least 10%, some much more. Real estate screamed.<BR/><BR/>So...beware a retest of that neckline, I think the market could go up 4-6% before completing the pattern.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89041646233970601152008-07-08T20:50:00.000+01:002008-07-08T20:50:00.000+01:00yes i wanted to finish my question with a "maybe w...yes i wanted to finish my question with a "maybe what I am saying is nonsense. Stick to what works, and just wait for the many who, are thinking that this selling is overdone, to stop out for trying to pick bottoms"<BR/><BR/>so true, probably complacent....will keep things light and let the price action tell me what to do...thx vmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59793991610709648632008-07-08T20:13:00.000+01:002008-07-08T20:13:00.000+01:00Well, that was the script last time around, Anon, ...Well, that was the script last time around, Anon, and had me tempted to close a position thinking along the same lines as you. <BR/>One thing that may be of note is the up tick in volume of the levered financial etf (UYG). It's basically 2/3/4x that of Mar/Apr/May. <BR/>I wonder if, in spite of the steady torture we’ve seen, there isn’t quite a few more folks than one would think positioned for just your scenario. <BR/>Not sure if it’s complacent or smart?? <BR/>RJAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15641804303897894732008-07-08T19:42:00.000+01:002008-07-08T19:42:00.000+01:00am i going mad but given how extremely oversold (i...am i going mad but given how extremely oversold (i feel we are in a bubble of short financials!) the financials are, would u agree that the there is a high probability of a short squeeze during the upcoming financial earnings? <BR/><BR/>.....i mean even if results come SLIGHTLY worse than expected, i can see financials rallying quite hard over the next few weeks which will be boosted from the pricing out of rate hikes from Fed<BR/><BR/>not only that but also a continuation of lower oil prices will be positive.... Asia em fx should roar on the back of this......thoughts?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88530278722810169692008-07-08T19:03:00.000+01:002008-07-08T19:03:00.000+01:00CDN, to a degree, that's what motivated the correl...CDN, to a degree, that's what motivated the correlation study. I am really surprised that VIX isn't higher. Then again, I'm also surprised that FX carry, for example, isn't lower. So the answer is that I really don't know, which I have to confess isn't a terribly comfortable feeling...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14243192245333751992008-07-08T17:51:00.000+01:002008-07-08T17:51:00.000+01:00Bloomberg says that the stock slump isn't over unt...Bloomberg says that the stock slump isn't over until the VIX spikes. I can't help feeling that Goodhart's Law must apply in this situation. Thoughts?CDN Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11183653753709444967noreply@blogger.com