tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8966898317579315257..comments2024-03-18T18:27:47.714+00:00Comments on Macro Man: China and the FedMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger52125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76653789294067044502015-08-20T03:04:03.009+01:002015-08-20T03:04:03.009+01:00Nicole is a fade...and a bumNicole is a fade...and a bumAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28339521227902626782015-08-20T02:03:56.274+01:002015-08-20T02:03:56.274+01:00Aussie banks are all about 18-20% off peaks (some...Aussie banks are all about 18-20% off peaks (someone is doing ok....) ASX200 is 11% off peak, maybe the index is a better shortAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22433236518374531372015-08-19T23:19:40.833+01:002015-08-19T23:19:40.833+01:00I think Pol meant Funny Money (FM)... Nico I can a...I think Pol meant Funny Money (FM)... Nico I can always count on you to pummel Europe :). I'm still in the camp that thinks Europe is a few years behind the US and that low interest rates are the only tool they have to stimulate. Therefore equities by default should do OK as money changes asset classes. Its also cheaper than the US and the economy is so crapy, any bounce would be good.<br /><br />However i wont be dogmatic about it. it was a good trade, still is a decent trade but I will cut it if things start to change which it looks like they are. Because outside of the headline S&P 500 & Nasdaq, its a slow moving train wreck in almost all sectors. <br /><br />Sadly, as in the last cycle, when Europe started to outperform, that was a sign of the top, so I hear you Nico. Just waiting for my sign in the Spoo's (which I am short) to dump the rest of my Europeabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25287507955067237232015-08-19T23:19:40.228+01:002015-08-19T23:19:40.228+01:00I think Pol meant Funny Money (FM)... Nico I can a...I think Pol meant Funny Money (FM)... Nico I can always count on you to pummel Europe :). I'm still in the camp that thinks Europe is a few years behind the US and that low interest rates are the only tool they have to stimulate. Therefore equities by default should do OK as money changes asset classes. Its also cheaper than the US and the economy is so crapy, any bounce would be good.<br /><br />However i wont be dogmatic about it. it was a good trade, still is a decent trade but I will cut it if things start to change which it looks like they are. Because outside of the headline S&P 500 & Nasdaq, its a slow moving train wreck in almost all sectors. <br /><br />Sadly, as in the last cycle, when Europe started to outperform, that was a sign of the top, so I hear you Nico. Just waiting for my sign in the Spoo's (which I am short) to dump the rest of my Europeabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40919133178769391642015-08-19T22:55:45.841+01:002015-08-19T22:55:45.841+01:00The problem with oil is still even if some fracker...The problem with oil is still even if some frackers start dropping out there's a lot of suppliers lurking around to grab that market share. When there was only OPEC the high price they managed to maintain most certainly wasn't because inability to supply more volume, rather conciously managing to keep supply down. Now there's competition that isn't going away easy so it's a war of market share.<br /><br /><a href="http://cdn.oilprice.com/images/tinymce/Evan1/ada918.png" rel="nofollow">Supposedly</a> $40 is starting to hit the upper boundary of offshore OPEC countries like Nigeria, Angola and Venezuela. But their still niche rest being those very low cost producers using workforce comparable to slavery perhaps. Even though those guesstimates were in 2011 and tech probably lowered costs since then ultimately all of frackers being underwater is still no small deal. Some kind of hunchy compromise mixed from that "data" then but $35 might be a nice sustainable bottom and $30 the no-brainer bottom. But maybe more likely it just starts to trade sideways as no fuel for other than the occasional bounce unable to gain escape velocity.<br /><br />So if it's near to a bottom then maybe the Fed can forget about the non-sensical headline inflation and start paying more attention to core again which is hovering very near 2%. And fuel for USTs is going to run out as oil starts freezing for the eventual sideways trading.hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43936178375197373302015-08-19T21:30:32.195+01:002015-08-19T21:30:32.195+01:00Abee Europe is broke you are betting your overweig...Abee Europe is broke you are betting your overweight money on a dead bumNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82204354319506711322015-08-19T19:20:47.620+01:002015-08-19T19:20:47.620+01:00No idea who FB is, but since the minutes were leak...No idea who FB is, but since the minutes were leaked way early and USD was dumped before equity algos kicked in, I would have thought everyone got long equities (unless they were totally clueless).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49296151935168076152015-08-19T19:15:39.777+01:002015-08-19T19:15:39.777+01:00Count down to FB saying he bought SPX 2 hrs ago .....Count down to FB saying he bought SPX 2 hrs ago .....10 .. 9 ..... 8 ... Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5579366086404268332015-08-19T19:13:21.818+01:002015-08-19T19:13:21.818+01:00BoE back-tracking on rate rise...
Fed back-trackin...BoE back-tracking on rate rise...<br />Fed back-tracking on rate rise...<br />Fed minutes leaked early again (just to show how manipulated these markets are)<br />S&P bid, BTFD rewarded once again...<br /><br />Come back FM, all is forgiven....<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44353404142181715462015-08-19T18:49:16.831+01:002015-08-19T18:49:16.831+01:00Fed leaning towards no rate hike in Sep. Macro guy...Fed leaning towards no rate hike in Sep. Macro guys wrong again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7465555199263952532015-08-19T17:07:11.997+01:002015-08-19T17:07:11.997+01:00Abee has been spending a lot of time looking into ...Abee has been spending a lot of time looking into some of the HY E&P space. While not convinced we are at the bottom he does think we are near. Some decent values in strong names and some unpredictable values in distressed names. Clearly NatGas in the marcellus is going to be profitable for someone, otherwise prices will rise. But apparently we will need to see prices go lower to get some HF money really interested. And probably at CHK bankruptcy to light a fire! Stay tuned this is a place to watch<br /><br /><br />On aussie banks, agreed it is a macro tourist grave yard. Really need to see loan impairments pick up substantially for it to play out, as well with CDN banks. And for that you need property prices to go down, which is another graveyard, so I will stay away. Also aussie banks giving generous yields, so not my conviction short. Play the FX IMO.. <br /><br />Feeling very nervous about my overweight European equity call... <br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42763985952021978192015-08-19T15:12:04.531+01:002015-08-19T15:12:04.531+01:00Was Bernanke hired by China Central Bank?
http://...Was Bernanke hired by China Central Bank?<br /><br />http://en.people.cn/business/n/2015/0819/c90778-8938284.html<br /><br />A reverse repo. They copy everything>Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11693354139038135784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84872476801263011042015-08-19T12:24:53.946+01:002015-08-19T12:24:53.946+01:00Showing the losses...MLP spreadsheet:
https://docs...Showing the losses...MLP spreadsheet:<br />https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nOH3U936Cie4ZmoKCeXmf7--loZi4Tlh2HGkPbGOew4/edit?pli=1#gid=0<br /><br />I hope all the Masters of the Universe and big swinging ***** out there have your backs covered:<br /><br />"Hackers post stolen Ashley Madison user data: Report."<br /><br />Will this be the macro event that brings the market down?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50906171511102851692015-08-19T08:59:22.694+01:002015-08-19T08:59:22.694+01:00yes I get that but what is the relevance to the re...yes I get that but what is the relevance to the rest of the post ? Are you saying that the deteriorating situation in China and Fed tightening should be expressed by a short in Aussie banks ? <br /><br />Rosscohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18218092677103028057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58621963038743010852015-08-19T07:34:45.958+01:002015-08-19T07:34:45.958+01:00The banks are a large component of the ASX, where ...The banks are a large component of the ASX, where they go it goes. Latest releases say only slightly increased provisions for next year, I think fitch just reminded people of possibility of further capital rounds. ASX looks to be further off boil the S&P 500 trending between US and EM markets <br /><br />IT Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10199691055458966963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59836602450382699082015-08-19T06:17:51.781+01:002015-08-19T06:17:51.781+01:00@Peter Smith
I'm not sure why you specifical...@Peter Smith <br /><br />I'm not sure why you specifically mention Aussie banks (apart from them being a grave yard full of macro shorts) but with the deflation that is seemingly sweeping through both em and dm Asia it strikes me that Australian exports and hence terms of trade seem about to crater. <br /><br />Bad loans ?Rosscohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18218092677103028057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-564082597914769062015-08-19T00:11:35.647+01:002015-08-19T00:11:35.647+01:00Great post.
I would be careful to compare the cur...Great post.<br /><br />I would be careful to compare the current situation with the the 80s and 90s simply because asset prices (I am london based ) and nominal level of debt are already much much higher. Plus, with a very low inflation, financing those assest is a never shrinking burden.<br />So the room for manoeuvre is quite low to maintain such prices.<br /><br />P.s: overheard at school between 10 year olds. - And you, your parents, do they have to work ? ;o)<br /><br />Travis Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20023926557545981982015-08-18T22:35:08.052+01:002015-08-18T22:35:08.052+01:00http://www.businessinsider.com/r-gundlach-says-bad...http://www.businessinsider.com/r-gundlach-says-bad-idea-for-fed-to-hike-rates-when-junk-bonds-at-four-year-low-2015-8Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29717869116100691272015-08-18T20:07:10.362+01:002015-08-18T20:07:10.362+01:00Regarding energy MLPs,
http://thereformedbroker.c...Regarding energy MLPs,<br /><br />http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/08/16/the-mlp-myth-blown-to-smithereens/<br /><br />RossmorguyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25368996832906798972015-08-18T09:59:44.361+01:002015-08-18T09:59:44.361+01:00@washedup 5:05 - no offense taken :)
As an aside,...@washedup 5:05 - no offense taken :)<br /><br />As an aside, I see BAML have just updated their "FunnyMoney" survey:<br />https://twitter.com/LadyFOHF/status/633536367486746625<br /><br />Right, back to the hammock..FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81765238196941009702015-08-18T08:08:44.384+01:002015-08-18T08:08:44.384+01:00You will have noticed the ASX 200 started going do...You will have noticed the ASX 200 started going downhill early this afternoon, with banks leading the falls.<br />The timing of that turn coincides very nicely with the release of a note from ratings agency Fitch which read:<br />A further increase in capital by Australia's four largest banks is likely over the medium term as regulatory changes stemming from the December 2014 Financial Services Inquiry (FSI) and Basel framework are implemented..<br />That's comes hot on the heels of this month's $5b capital raising from CBA and a $3b raising from ANZ. Good, but not good enough for a rating upgrade, reckons Fitch:<br />The increase in capital will be supportive of the big banks' current ratings, though upgrades are not likely given their already high ratings and weaker funding profiles relative to their international peers.<br />Then the really bad news kicks in:<br />Fitch believes that the higher risk-weights are likely to be only the first of a series of new measures to be implemented. In addition to the FSI, the Basel committee is also expected to finalise their proposals for an update to the global framework by end-2015/early-2016. Together, global and domestic regulatory changes are likely to result in yet higher capital requirements.<br />The Australian banks are likely to use a combination of retained earnings, discounts on their DRPs, underwritten DRPs, and equity issuance to increase their capital positions.<br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-profits-pour-in-20150817-gj1czd.html#ixzz3j9FHv2BY <br />Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on FacebookIT Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10199691055458966963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75176455745961164512015-08-18T08:04:01.507+01:002015-08-18T08:04:01.507+01:00ASX sold off late ASX sold off late IT Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10199691055458966963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4022670938501984702015-08-18T00:42:45.700+01:002015-08-18T00:42:45.700+01:00"America's not a country. It's just a..."America's not a country. It's just a business. Now fuckin pay me."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20065260772021612972015-08-17T21:42:10.027+01:002015-08-17T21:42:10.027+01:00 $OIH sensitive CDS @ January highs. This is not ... $OIH sensitive CDS @ January highs. This is not the bottom to pick $XLE<br /><br />http://imgur.com/IcWKLhQAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11288620778534269482015-08-17T21:38:50.172+01:002015-08-17T21:38:50.172+01:00Hope no one bought hteDec HY energy credit lows......Hope no one bought hteDec HY energy credit lows...<br /><br />http://imgur.com/EMXgJU7Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com