tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8906933389917703193..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Is That Really a Reason To Be Bearish?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger75125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27953279095069744152021-07-26T09:26:32.651+01:002021-07-26T09:26:32.651+01:00Spanish and Italian 10s spiking in yields
ดูหนังให...Spanish and Italian 10s spiking in yields<br /><a href="https://nung2uhd.com/" rel="nofollow">ดูหนังใหม่ 2021</a><br /><a href="https://moviehotreview.wordpress.com/" rel="nofollow">รีวิวหนังใหม่</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76242416813287236892019-11-18T08:21:27.910+00:002019-11-18T08:21:27.910+00:00nice post เว็บคาสิโน ดีที่สุด pantipnice post <a href="https://www.ufa345.com/%e0%b9%80%e0%b8%a7%e0%b9%87%e0%b8%9a%e0%b8%84%e0%b8%b2%e0%b8%aa%e0%b8%b4%e0%b9%82%e0%b8%99-%e0%b8%94%e0%b8%b5%e0%b8%97%e0%b8%b5%e0%b9%88%e0%b8%aa%e0%b8%b8%e0%b8%94-pantip///" rel="nofollow">เว็บคาสิโน ดีที่สุด pantip</a>Pornhubhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15787149435008093547noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48230568235996832692013-12-17T15:22:48.919+00:002013-12-17T15:22:48.919+00:00Time to buy Treasuries? Specs are building huge sh...Time to buy Treasuries? Specs are building huge short position...<br /><br />http://i.imgur.com/cUGy7Wn.png<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11595166407048661352013-12-10T12:32:25.229+00:002013-12-10T12:32:25.229+00:00Everybody out spending their proceeds from their l...Everybody out spending their proceeds from their long Spoos trade? CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90646637235483499252013-12-05T17:15:27.974+00:002013-12-05T17:15:27.974+00:00Spanish and Italian 10s spiking in yields, all loo...Spanish and Italian 10s spiking in yields, all looking a bit risk off in Europe suddenly. Or as amps would say it's gone a bit yennish out there. US punters still seem asleep or playing TOTO and NFP bingo.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82064112516742405882013-12-04T16:31:15.406+00:002013-12-04T16:31:15.406+00:00New Home Sales in US (Oct) were 444k, a lot of exc...New Home Sales in US (Oct) were 444k, a lot of excitement about that number, but wait, this is a noisy series. September was 354k, perhaps due to some shutdown-related issues in counting the data. Average those two numbers and you get 399k, which is slightly below the pace of sales in the Spring before rates spiked. Not too much to get excited about.<br /><br />ADP slightly above 200k is simply the mean of the last few months (170k or so) + a little bit of statistical noise, in what is another noisy series. No evidence of a genuine breakout or real trend in employment at this point. It's flat. US GDP is also flat in real terms. Nominal GDP 2%, CPI 1.7% so real GDP ~0.3%.<br /><br />However, these data need to be viewed in light of developments on the fiscal front. Recent talks in DC and the prospect of a renegotiated and reduced sequester, might combine with these job numbers to provide the Fed enough cover to begin tapering the size of bond purchases at the December meeting. In our view this is now more or less priced into Treasury markets but not into equity and high yield credit.<br /><br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51010965566767678582013-12-04T06:45:09.632+00:002013-12-04T06:45:09.632+00:00meanwhile France got trashed - good to see Europe ...meanwhile France got trashed - good to see Europe taking the lead again (on the downside)<br /><br />Europe tightening liquidity vs. SantaNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10317138979796646992013-12-03T19:38:24.859+00:002013-12-03T19:38:24.859+00:00Best to hold off here, C. Fear of tapering is meet...Best to hold off here, C. Fear of tapering is meeting some jitters about the weak retail sales. The weak groups have been retail XLY and homebuilders XHB along with more ritual floggings for mREITs, as rate fears combine with year-end tax selling. Many nice opportunities for those with Kevlar body suits, deep pockets and a reasonable degree of patience.<br /><br />Many shorts in the Treasury market during these weeks with employment reports, and it will likely build as we proceed towards the FOMC meeting. We'll see soon enough whether the bond bears get a Taper or a Taser.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7871011979310877602013-12-03T15:03:40.852+00:002013-12-03T15:03:40.852+00:00C Says
Thought the US equities yesterday a bit str...C Says<br />Thought the US equities yesterday a bit strange. The markets were negative ,but some of the underlying technical would have you buying. Suspect the negative must have been heavily concentrated if the breadth was otherwise.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81783199991800435582013-12-03T14:36:15.788+00:002013-12-03T14:36:15.788+00:00NYSE trading volume at 10 year low...
http://i.im...NYSE trading volume at 10 year low...<br /><br />http://i.imgur.com/UR3rwMN.png<br /><br />Investors Intelligence Percent Bears...<br /><br />http://i.imgur.com/fxjiINt.pngAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85308319390993736002013-12-03T14:23:09.383+00:002013-12-03T14:23:09.383+00:00They are geniuses who are long beta, and probably ...They are geniuses who are long beta, and probably good bottom-up stock pickers as well (remember when fundamentals mattered?). If they are real geniuses they will also at some point be flat, or short, beta.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47240281778905527382013-12-03T09:18:20.418+00:002013-12-03T09:18:20.418+00:00Thanks for the holiday read, LB. This caught my e...Thanks for the holiday read, LB. This caught my eye, Bespoke 50 up 60% in 2013. Either they are geniuses, which may be, or what?<br /><br />RossmorguyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65054075946964474322013-12-02T21:22:16.413+00:002013-12-02T21:22:16.413+00:00According to Bespoke, Mondays have been the weakes...According to Bespoke, Mondays have been the weakest days this year and Tuesdays the strongest. There is also the post-Thanksgiving effect to consider:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/12/2/post-thanksgiving-hangover.html" rel="nofollow"> Post Thanksgiving Hangover </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67257374345434772792013-12-02T19:13:55.019+00:002013-12-02T19:13:55.019+00:00EZ industrial PMI's a mixed bag today. Germany...EZ industrial PMI's a mixed bag today. Germany very strong as expected, Italy surprising to the upside and Spain and France very depressing (again), US super strong and China looking a bit ominous. There seems to be an increasing amount of gossips around dove lobbyist gathering weight to take control of the ECB.<br /><br />Market breadth not looking very healthy for the opening season of Santa Claus rally today (when was the last time we saw MMM take a strong dump?), although no doubt we'll get it going soon enough. It seems Dectaper is on everyones lips again, for the time being.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58385032380340261902013-12-02T03:24:41.599+00:002013-12-02T03:24:41.599+00:00US retail data for the last few days even weaker t...US retail data for the last few days even weaker than we had expected. More econ data tomorrow from the US and Europe. A minor reverse might be in store for Mr Market in the morning. The performance of the XLY has been especially gravity-defying of late, so it wouldn't be surprising to see a little wobble.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3707877156865926332013-12-01T13:38:54.202+00:002013-12-01T13:38:54.202+00:00Monitoring the flow of fiat currencies like the US...Monitoring the flow of fiat currencies like the US Dollar and the Chinese Yuan into the digital currency Bitcoin. Data extracted from all major trading exchanges.<br /><br />http://fiatleak.com/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58362795428244128922013-12-01T13:29:12.115+00:002013-12-01T13:29:12.115+00:00Alternative markets:
Crypto-Currency Market Capita...Alternative markets:<br />Crypto-Currency Market Capitalizations...<br /><br />http://coinmarketcap.com/<br /><br />One of the best courses that I have come across in trying to understand Bitcoin:<br /><br />https://www.udemy.com/bitcoin-or-how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-crypto/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1724996424800573702013-12-01T10:34:20.467+00:002013-12-01T10:34:20.467+00:00C Says
In case it has escaped your attention the b...C Says<br />In case it has escaped your attention the blog has become increasingly inactive regardless of the season or am I living in an alternate universe?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20438267235632677552013-12-01T07:06:40.007+00:002013-12-01T07:06:40.007+00:00Leftback,
very kind of you to step up and defend ...Leftback,<br /><br />very kind of you to step up and defend those voicing strong opinions. I would have expected that these guys still follow the discussion while chewing their birds. This is what I do at least, with or without a turkey on the table or being on holiday.<br /><br />As a sidenote, GMO has been writing about low future returns for about the same time as Hussman. They make a similar point: buy an index, say, hold it for 7 years and you will reap crappy returns. Hussman talks about 10 years and the figures vary a bit, but that's about it. Nobody says that the market doesn't have short-term momentum and that you can't make a fortune by clever trading. I would say that the jury is still out.<br /><br />My 2c.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67534001146365448782013-11-30T16:04:42.563+00:002013-11-30T16:04:42.563+00:00via Risk Dimensions...
"The ECB rate cut wa...via Risk Dimensions...<br /><br /><br />"The ECB rate cut wasn’t expected.<br /><br />Neither was the price action of the Euro in the week that followed – as it was unchanged.<br /><br />This is significant for three reasons.<br />The ECB’s only mandate is price stability – not growth. Therefore dis-inflation must be a massive concern.<br />The race to zero in global rates, volatility and spread just got a shot of adrenalin.<br />The unintended consequences of QE will continue to foul arbitrage strategies.<br /><br />The Euro rebounded after the cut, as market participants realized that competitive devaluation will continue, reducing the distinction among leveraged G-10 currencies.<br /><br />The ECB waited 12 months to continue its previously accommodative policies as memories of Weimar and GDP disparity among its 17 members temporarily tied their dovish hands. The pause increases the likelihood of a protracted and accommodative monetary policy by the ECB as the echoes of Draghi’s July 2012 “anything it takes” speech have faded, requiring the November 7th action.<br />The ECB is about to ramp up its buying again and revisit their $4 billion peak in December 2012, which was whittled down to today’s $3.3 billion. This expected central bank ramp up in buying is not good news for those trafficking in rate, credit and volatility arbitrage.<br /><br />We expect the correlation to increase across risk markets as spreads tighten, rates drop and volatility declines.<br /><br />2013s risk-on move will continue through 2014, favoring long-only strategies and limiting opportunity in arbitrage strategies. This does not mean downside risk is zero.<br />Rather, the unintended consequences of Zero Rate Policy, (ZRP) will continue – requiring alternatives managers to adopt new practices to monetize market risks and generate alpha for an investor base tiring of their underperformance."<br /><br />http://www.riskdimensions.org/ecb-joins-the-qe-parade-why-that-is-a-problem-for-many-hedge-funds/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73699205568812723092013-11-29T20:28:20.196+00:002013-11-29T20:28:20.196+00:00Although there might not seem to be any reasons to...Although there might not seem to be any reasons to be bearish, there are still reasons to suspect that the apparent absence of bears might not last for ever. We have been living in the Year of Abenomics, the Year of QE Infinity and the Year of The Bazooka. <br /><br />Of all of these, the latter is the least tangible, so if trouble in the form of a liquidity shortage were to arise, it wouldn't be surprising if it first reared its ugly ahead in the eurozone once more, :<br /><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/11/29/1709552/eurozone-liquidity-is-getting-tight/" rel="nofollow"> Eurozone liquidity is getting tight </a><br /><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/11/28/1708072/please-sir-i-want-some-more-italy-edition/" rel="nofollow"> Another LTRO ahead for Italian Banks? </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32673594671684050012013-11-29T18:42:22.171+00:002013-11-29T18:42:22.171+00:00The lack of answers reflects the fact that the tur...The lack of answers reflects the fact that the turkey eating festival is upon us and most punters and managers have taken the week off. I reckon quite a few of the commenters here do "eat their own cooking" as regards investing, whether it is via the fund in which they act as a fiduciary or in parallel funds and instruments.<br /><br />Nobody is saying Hussman is lacking brains, but even he would admit to being as stubborn as a rented mule. We have all been guilty of this at times and we all know what happens to the rented mule.....<br /><br />Anyway in my experience the excoriation of noted Bears is often a sign that change is in the wind. We have seen Hendry and Rosenberg commit seppu-ku in the last few weeks, so towel chucking is rife among those of the ursine persuasion.<br /><br />EURJPY knocking on the door of 140 for the first time in 5 years, since the aftermath of Lehman. That remains the primary and most reliable index of risk for now.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11370059263685886462013-11-29T07:11:01.955+00:002013-11-29T07:11:01.955+00:00The lack of answers speaks for itself.The lack of answers speaks for itself.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58298984977747191812013-11-27T02:42:34.879+00:002013-11-27T02:42:34.879+00:00@Anon at 3:58 AM : A fund manager's job is als...@Anon at 3:58 AM : A fund manager's job is also to avoid that the curve goes from the top left to the bottom right, or it isn't ?<br /><br />Maybe that is the main difference between Husmann and some of the eminently respectable fund managers posting and commenting here. One is managing an asset representing most of his wealth with no intention to get out (see http://www.hussmanfunds.net/wmc/wmc031026.htm) , the others are getting their 2/20 and leaving to funds allocators (fund of funds, financial advisors, pension trustees,…) the decision to be in or out of their strategies. <br /><br />Just out of curiosity, who amongst the fund manager cum contributors here have the same fiduciary position that Husmann (I.e. being close to 100% personnaly invested in the fund they manage with no intention to get out whatever the market is doing) ?Charlesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29042383841660609082013-11-25T22:30:11.950+00:002013-11-25T22:30:11.950+00:00Bad data is good data for most of this week, I thi...Bad data is good data for most of this week, I think. Bad data is always good data until the time for profit taking arises. Once the herd starts to see people heading for the exit then even mediocre data will be bad data. Very bad data.<br /><br />Expect to hear a lot of guff spouted on Friday about how awesomely great the Black Friday and Black Thursday sales numbers are looking. Happens every year, then the reality is something else. Ritholtz had a funny piece about this, he points this out every year. <br /><br />Next week it's December and we get to hear some of the data that has been delayed. We will soon know whether Bad Is Good, Day is Night or Black Is Black into the end of the year...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsv7USKmhXA> Black Is Black </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.com